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WWETAC Focus Area: Environment

Worrall J.J., Marchetti S.B., Rehfeldt G.E. 2016. Bioclimate models and change projections to inform forest adaptation in southwestern Colorado: Interim Report. Technical Report R2-68. Link to pdf.

Bioclimate models were developed for 14 tree species in southwestern Colorado and then projected to the decade 2055-2064 using three representative global climate models (GCMs). The difference in model output between the reference and future periods was used to classify spatially explicit change zones for each species. The most severe losses projected for SW Colorado are for limber, bristlecone and lodgepole pine while Gambel oak has the most favorable projection and greater losses occur in the western part of the region due to desert expansion. Change zones can be used to plan management actions on a site-specific basis, prioritize efforts based on likelihood of long-term success and identify potential climate refugia.

Table 6 from Worrall et al., 2016 (reference above). Class changes based on comparing reference vs. future suitability for a species. *Votes for presence or absence in target cell for current and future climates.