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Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

Posted date: October 07, 2011
Publication Year: 
2010
Authors: Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Duce, Pierpaolo; Salis, Michele; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Ager, AlanFinney, Mark A.
Publication Series: 
Miscellaneous Publication
Source: In: Viegas, D. X., ed. Proceedings of the VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research; 15-18 November 2010; Coimbra, Portugal. Coimbra, Portugal: University of Coimbra. 9 p.

Abstract

Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a regional climate model with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The data provided by the model were used in order to predict the changes in both the extreme fire weather days, and the fire behaviour for the different fire scenarios. The main indicators of anomalies on fire weather severity and fire behaviour were analysed in order to predict the magnitude of the differences between baseline e future scenarios. The study showed an increase of the number of days with extreme fire weather conditions, and low variations affecting the fire behaviour.

Citation

Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Duce, Pierpaolo; Salis, Michele; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark. 2010. Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas. In: Viegas, D. X., ed. Proceedings of the VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research; 15-18 November 2010; Coimbra, Portugal. Coimbra, Portugal: University of Coimbra. 9 p.