Landscape simulation modeling is used to examine whether fuel treatments result in a carbon offset from avoided wildfire emissions. The study landscape was a 169,200-acre watershed located in south-central Oregon. Burn probability modeling was employed under extreme weather and fuel moisture conditions. Expected carbon stocks post-treatment, post-wildfire were calculated for all stands on the treated landscape; post-wildfire on the untreated landscape. Results show a negative carbon offset initially—the known reduction of carbon stocks from treatment is greater than expected carbon benefit from reduced wildfire emissions. Treatment may break even as a carbon offset after 9 years.