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Keyword: risk assessment

Spatial optimization of operationally relevant large fire confine and point protection strategies: Model development and test cases

Publications Posted on: April 03, 2018
This study introduces a large fire containment strategy that builds upon recent advances in spatial fire planning, notably the concept of potential wildland fire operation delineations (PODs). Multiple PODs can be clustered together to form a “box” that is referred as the “response POD” (or rPOD). Fire lines would be built along the boundary of an rPOD to contain a large fire.

Modeling fuel treatment leverage: Encounter rates, risk reduction, and suppression cost impacts

Publications Posted on: December 14, 2017
The primary theme of this study is the cost-effectiveness of fuel treatments at multiple scales of investment. We focused on the nexus of fuel management and suppression response planning, designing spatial fuel treatment strategies to incorporate landscape features that provide control opportunities that are relevant to fire operations.

Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States

Publications Posted on: September 22, 2017
The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The geologic, geomorphic, and hydrologic context underlying options for long-term management of the Spirit Lake outlet near Mount St. Helens, Washington

Publications Posted on: July 05, 2017
The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens produced a massive landslide and consequent pyroclastic currents, deposits of which blocked the outlet to Spirit Lake. Without an outlet, the lake began to rise, threatening a breaching of the blockage and release of a massive volume of water. To mitigate the hazard posed by the rising lake and provide an outlet, in 1984–1985 the U.S.

Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2]

Publications Posted on: January 24, 2017
Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of models.

Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: Quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities

Publications Posted on: August 10, 2016
Wildfire is a global phenomenon that plays a vital role in regulating and maintaining many natural and human-influenced ecosystems but that also poses considerable risks to human populations and infrastructure. Fire managers are charged with balancing the short-term protection of human assets sensitive to fire exposure against the potential long-term benefits that wildfires can provide to natural systems and wildlife populations.

Application of the wildfire risk assessment framework

Projects Posted on: July 25, 2016
In 2015, analysts with Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) continued to be involved with application of a wildfire risk assessment framework developed largely by RMRS scientists from both the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program and the Human Dimensions Program. The risk assessment framework is useful for multiple reasons: it provides a means to assess the potential risk posed by wildfire to specific highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) across large landscapes, and it also provides a scientifically-based foundation for fire managers to think strategically and proactively about how to best manage fire and fuels on their landscapes in a way that integrates with broader land and resource management goals.  

Structural and functional connectivity as a driver of hillslope erosion following disturbance

Publications Posted on: June 24, 2016
Hydrologic response to rainfall on fragmented or burnt hillslopes is strongly influenced by the ensuing connectivity of runoff and erosion processes. Yet cross-scale process connectivity is seldom evaluated in field studies owing to scale limitations in experimental design.

Linking spatial fire planning to management of large fires

Projects Posted on: June 02, 2016
Effective and efficient risk based management requires integrated knowledge, systems and planning tools that explore the interaction of the full range of land and fire management activities. The Wildfire Risk Management Team is working with managers to develop and demonstrate the power of integrating fire-risk science across the full range of fire management activities from local to national scales. Improved linkages between landscape fire potential and land management objectives will have profound effects on the efficiency of the full range of fire management activities. 

Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community

Publications Posted on: May 11, 2016
Risk management is being increasingly promoted as an appropriate method for addressing wildland fire management challenges. However, a lack of a common understanding of risk concepts and terminology is hindering effective application. In response, this General Technical Report provides a set of clear, consistent, understandable, and usable definitions for terms associated with wildland fire risk management.