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Keyword: burn probability

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

Publications Posted on: September 21, 2011
Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence.

Use of artificial landscapes to isolate controls on burn probability

Publications Posted on: July 07, 2010
Techniques for modeling burn probability (BP) combine the stochastic components of fire regimes (ignitions and weather) with sophisticated fire growth algorithms to produce high-resolution spatial estimates of the relative likelihood of burning. Despite the numerous investigations of fire patterns from either observed or simulated sources, the specific influence of environmental factors on BP patterns is not well understood.

Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

Publications Posted on: December 17, 2008
Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning.

Using Landscape-Based Decision Rules to Prioritize Locations of Fuel Treatments in the Boreal Mixedwood of Western Canada

Publications Posted on: February 02, 2007
This study used a rule-based approach to prioritize locations of fuel treatments in the boreal mixedwood forest of western Canada. The burn probability (BP) in and around Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan was mapped using the Burn-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning) model. Fuel treatment locations were determined according to three scenarios and five fuel treatment intensities.