Populations of many cold-water species are likely to decline this century with global warming, but declines will vary spatially and some populations will persist even under extreme climate change scenarios. Especially cold habitats could provide important refugia from both future environmental change and invasions by non-native species that prefer warmer waters. The Climate Shield website hosts geospatial data and related information that describes specific locations of cold-water refuge streams for native Cutthroat Trout and Bull Trout across the American West. Forecasts about the locations of refugia could enable the protection of key watersheds, be used to rally support among multiple stakeholders, and provide a foundation for planning climate-smart conservation networks that improve the odds of preserving native trout populations through the 21st century. These data are available for three scenarios: historical (1970–1999), mid-century (2030–2059), and end-of-century (2070–2099).

Climate Shield was inspired by the landscapes of the Rocky Mountains and people everywhere that are working to preserve native trout. The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership provided a valuable forum that accelerated this work. The Great Northern and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives generously funded the NorWeST project, which serves as the foundation for Climate Shield.

The Climate Shield story: Turning Conservation on Its Head. NWClimate Magazine 2016.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Luce, Charles H.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Wenger, Seth J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Groce, Matthew C.; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David E. 2016. Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity. PNAS. 113(16): 4374-4379.

Isaak, D., M. Young, D. Nagel, D. Horan, and M. Groce. 2015. The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st Century. Global Change Biology. 21:2540-2553.

 Isaak, D.J., M.K. Young, D.L. Horan, D. Nagel, M.K. Schwartz, and K. McKelvey. 2022. Do metapopulations and management matter for relict headwater bull trout populations in a warming climate? Ecological Applications. DOI: 10.1002/eap.2594