Thomas C. Brown
Economist
240 West Prospect Road
Fort Collins
Colorado
United States
80526-2098
Phone: 970-498-2562
Fax: 970-498-1010
Contact Thomas C. Brown
Current Research
Research Interests
Research objectives include:
Past Research
Why This Research is Important
Climate change is very likely to both increase water demand and decrease water supply. This combination of effects, along with the impact of human population increase on water demand, will increase the vulnerability of water supplies to shortage, and will also lead to decreases in instream flow available to aquatic species and for other instream uses. These changes will not occur uniformly across the landscape; rather, some areas will be affected much more heavily than others. Although considerable uncertainty remains about the exact degree of change that will occur, it is critical for policy makers and water resource planners to have the best available site-specific estimates of the extent to which these changes are likely to occur. This effort aims to provide such estimates within a probabilistic framework using methods consistently applied across the US.Water quality is a continuing national concern. Although point sources of pollution are largely contained pursuant to the Water Quality Act, nonpoint sources of water pollution remain mainly uncontrolled and policy makers continue to consider ways to reduce nonpoint sources. This research seeks to inform the policy formation process by providing a fine-scale national picture of the relative risks of water quality impairment from nonpoint sources, indicating where the greatest risks are faced.
Education
- American University, Washington, DC, B.A. Economics 1968
- University of Arizona, M.S. Water Management 1973
- University of Arizona, Ph.D. Economics 1983
Featured Publications & Products
- Brown, Thomas C.; Bergstrom, John C.; Loomis, John B. 2007. Defining, valuing and providing ecosystem goods and services.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Foti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge A. 2013. Projected freshwater withdrawals in the United States under a changing climate.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Froemke, Pamela. 2012. Nationwide assessment of nonpoint source threats to water quality.
- Foti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C. 2014. A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Hobbins, Michael T.; Ramirez, Jorge A. 2008. Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States.
- Litschert, Sandra E.; Brown, Thomas C.; Theobald, David M. 2012. Historic and future extent of wildfires in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion, USA.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Kingsley, David; Peterson, George L.; Flores, Nicholas E.; Clarke, Andrea; Birjulin, Andrej. 2008. Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response time, and preference refinement.
- Morrison, Mark; Brown, Thomas C. 2009. Testing the effectiveness of certainty scales, cheap talk, and dissonance-minimization in reducing hypothetical bias in contingent valuation studies.
Publications
- Heidari, Hadi ; Warziniack, Travis ; Brown, Thomas C.; Arabi, Mazdak . 2021. Impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. National Forests and Grasslands.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Mahat, Vinod ; Ramirez, Jorge A. 2019. Adaptation to future water shortages in the United States caused by population growth and climate change.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Kroll, Stephan. 2017. Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity.
- Maas, Alexander; Goemans, Christopher; Manning, Dale; Kroll, Stephan; Brown, Thomas. 2017. Dilemmas, coordination and defection: How uncertain tipping points induce common pool resource destruction.
- Salo, Jessica A.; Theobald, David M.; Brown, Thomas C. 2016. Evaluation of methods for delineating riparian zones in a semi-arid montane watershed.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Morrison, Mark D.; Benfield, Jacob A.; Rainbolt, Gretchen Nurse; Bell, Paul A. 2015. Exchange asymmetry in experimental settings.
- Litschert, S. E.; Theobald, D. M.; Brown, T. C. 2014. Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion.
- Kingsley, David C.; Brown, Thomas C. 2014. Endogenous and costly institutional deterrence.
- Foti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C. 2014. Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: The Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California.
- Sturges, Frank; Joyce, Linda; Brown, Tom; Flather, Curt; Mockrin, Miranda; Reeves, Matt. 2013. Coming to a landscape near you: Natural resource changes in the Interior West.
- Kingsley, David C.; Brown, Thomas C. 2013. Estimating willingness to accept using paired comparison choice experiments: tests of robustness.
- Kingsley, David C.; Brown, Thomas C. 2013. Value learning and the willingness to accept - willingness to pay disparity.
- Kingsley, David C.; Brown, Thomas C. 2012. Does prompting for revision influence subjects' offers in willingness to accept - willingness to pay lab experiments.
- Foti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C. 2012. Vulnerability of U.S. water supply to shortage: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Foti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge. 2012. Water resources (Chapter 12).
- Kingsley, David C.; Brown, Thomas C. 2010. Preference uncertainty, preference learning, and paired comparison experiments.
- Brown, Thomas C; Froemke, Pamela. 2010. Risk of impaired condition of watersheds containing National Forest lands.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Peterson, George L. 2009. An enquiry into the method of paired comparison: reliability, scaling, and Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment.
- Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C.; Dale, Lisa. 2008. Chapter 16: Incentives and wildfire management in the United States.
- Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C. 2008. Estimating the avoided fuel-reatment costs of wildfire.
- Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C.; Dale, Lisa. 2008. Incentives and wildfire management in the United States.
- Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C. 2007. Be careful what you wish for: The legacy of Smokey Bear.
- Brown, Thomas C. 2007. The marginal economic value of streamflow from National Forests: Evidence from western water markets.
- Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C. 2005. An alternative incentive structure for wildfire management on national forest land..
- Ramirez, Jorge A.; Hobbins, Michael T.; Brown, Thomas C. 2005. Observational evidence of the complementary relationship in regional evaporation lends strong support for Bouchet's hypothesis.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Peterson, George L.; Brodersen, R. Marc; Ford, Valerie; Bell, Paul A. 2005. The judged seriousness of an environmental loss is a matter of what caused it.
- Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C. 2005. Wildfire management in the U.S. Forest Service: a brief history..
- Ajzen, Icek; Brown, Thomas C.; Carvajal, Franklin. 2004. Explaining the discrepancy between intentions and actions: the case of hypothetical bias in contingent valuation.
- Hobbins, Michael T.; Ramirez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C. 2004. Trends in pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration across the conterminous U.S.: paradoxical or complementary.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Ajzen, Icek; Hrubes, Daniel. 2003. Further tests of entreaties to avoid hypothetical bias in referendum contingent valuation.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Peterson, George L. 2003. Multiple good valuation Chapter 7.
- Champ, Patricia A.; Flores, Nicholas E.; Brown, Thomas C.; Chivers, James. 2002. Contingent valuation and incentives.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Nannini, Dawn; Gorter, Robert B.; Bell, Paul A.; Peterson, George L. 2002. Judged seriousness of environmental losses: reliability and cause of loss.
- Chuenpagdee, Ratana; Knetsch, Jack L.; Brown, Thomas C. 2001. Environmental damage schedules: community judgments of importance and assessments of losses.
- Hobbins, Michael T.; Ramirez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C. 2001. The complementary relationship in estimation of regional evapotranspiration: An enhanced Advection-Aridity model.
- Brown, Thomas C. 1999. Past and future freshwater use in the United States.
- Peterson, George L.; Brown, Thomas C. 1998. Economic valuation by the method of paired comparison, with emphasis on evaluation of the transitivity axiom.
- Loomis, John B.; Peterson, George; Champ, Patricia A.; Brown, Thomas C.; Lucero, Beatrice. 1998. Paired comparison estimates of willingness to accept versus contingent valuation estimates of willingness to pay.
- Champ, Patricia A.; Bishop, Richard C.; Brown, Thomas C.; McCollum, Daniel W. 1997. Using donation mechanisms to value nonuse benefits from public goods.
- Ajzen, Icek; Brown, Thomas C.; Rosenthal, Lori H. 1996. Information bias in contingent valuation: effects of personal relevance, quality of information, and motivational orientation.
- Gregory, Robin; Brown, Thomas C.; Knetsch, Jack L. 1996. Valuing risks to the environment.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Champ, Patricia A.; Bishop, Richard C.; McCollum, Daniel W. 1996. Which response format reveals the truth about donations to a public good.
- Gregory, Robin; Lichtenstein, Sarah; Brown, Thomas C.; Peterson, George L.; Slouic, Paul. 1995. How precise are monetary representations of environmental improvements.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Peterson, George L.; Tonn, Bruce E. 1995. The values jury to aid natural resource decisions.
- Duffield, John W.; Brown, Thomas C; Allen, Stewart D. 1994. Economic value of instream flow in Montana's Big Hole and Bitterroot Rivers.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Daniel, Terry C.; Schroeder, Herbert W.; Brink, Glen E. 1990. An analysis of ratings: A guide to RMRATE.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Harding, Benjamin L.; Payton, Elizabeth A. 1990. Marginal economic value of streamflow: A case study for the Colorado River Basin.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Daniel, Terry C. 1990. Scaling of ratings: Concepts and methods.
- Johnson, Craig W.; Brown, Thomas C.; Timmons, Michael L. 1985. Esthetics and landscaping.
- Brown, Thomas C.; Daniel, Terry C. 1984. Modeling forest scenic beauty: Concepts and application to ponderosa pine.
Research Highlights
Highlight | Title | Year |
![]() RMRS-2011-22 | A close comparison of the condition of watersheds on our National Forests Given the continuing concern over nonpoint-source pollution, researchers sought to understand how the risk of water quality impairment from nonp ... | 2011 |
![]() RMRS-2017-206 | Choices in the face of uncertainty: Study points to thresholds and framing as major influencing factors This research, published in the journal Climatic Change, highlights human incentives for positive change in uncertain situations. The research s ... | 2017 |
![]() RMRS-2016-7 | Forest Service Scientists Estimate Annual Water Supply of the Contiguous U.S. Forest Service scientists estimated water supply across the contiguous 48 states for the period 1981-2010. Political, administrative, and land c ... | 2016 |
![]() RMRS-2015-52 | Mean Annual Water Supply for the Contiguous U.S. Updated This study estimated water supply across the contiguous 48 states for the period 1981-2010. Political, administrative, and land cover boundaries ... | 2015 |