Current Research

risk, decision, and systems analysis; wildland fire management; forest management.

Research Interests

Application of principles from systems engineering, industrial engineering, risk analysis, operations research, economics, and decision-making under uncertainty to complex resource management with economic and environmental objectives. With future work I hope to better incorporate spatiotemporal dynamics into integrated risk assessment, facilitate the application of comparative risk assessment frameworks to inform strategic planning efforts, better understand the role of human factors and incentives in decision-making, improve our ability to model the effectiveness of suppression resources, and continue to systematically explore methods for addressing uncertainty.

Past Research

My past research has focused on the integration of systems and industrial engineering with economics and other disciplines to support natural resource management and decision making.

Why This Research is Important

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging the Forest Service to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of its land base. The confluence of past management practices and philosophies, a changing climate, and increased human development into fire-prone areas result in magnified threat to human and ecological values. There is a continued need for increased analytical rigor, systems thinking, and alignment with risk management principles within the wildland fire management community. Collectively my research seeks to promote enhanced pre-fire planning, development of safer and more effective response strategies, landscape restoration and resource protection, and ultimately to inform and improve decision-making processes, be it related to wildfire management or more broadly to natural resources management with multiple objectives.

Education

• Stanford University, Certificate Strategic Risk and Decision Making 2017
• Oregon State University, Ph.D. Forest Engineering 2009
• Oregon State University, M.S. Forest Management 2008
• University of California, Berkeley, M.S. Industrial Engineering & Operations Research 2002
• University of Virginia, B.S. Systems Engineering 2001

Professional Experience

Awards & Recognition

Featured Publications & Products

• Thompson, Matthew P.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Phipps, John . 2018. Rethinking the wildland fire management system.
• Calkin, David E.; Cohen, Jack D.; Finney, Mark A.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Lauer, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Rieck, Jon D.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Hand, Michael S. 2018. Wildfire response performance measurement: Current and future directions.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Freeborn, Patrick; Rieck, Jon D.; Calkin, Dave; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Hand, Michael S. 2016. Quantifying the influence of previously burned areas on suppression effectiveness and avoided exposure: A case study of the Las Conchas Fire.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Silva, Francisco Rodriguez y; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management.
• O'Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Fisher, Larry A.; Runge, Michael C.; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica. 2013. The science of decisionmaking: applications for sustainable forest and grassland management in the National Forest System.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E. 2011. Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review.
• Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management.
• Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision making.

Publications

• Carriger, John F.; Thompson, Matthew ; Barron, Mace G. 2021. Causal Bayesian networks in assessments of wildfire risks: Opportunities for ecological risk assessment and management.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Gannon, Benjamin M.; Caggiano, Michael D. 2021. Forest roads and operational wildfire response planning.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Belval, Erin J. 2021. Is this flight necessary The Aviation Use Summary (AUS): A framework for strategic, risk-informed aviation decision support.
• Robinne, François‐Nicolas ; Hallema, Dennis W.; Bladon, Kevin D.; Flannigan, Mike D.; Boisramé, Gabrielle ; Bréthaut, Christian M.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano ; Gallagher, Louise A.; Hohner, Amanda K.; Khan, Stuart J.; Kinoshita, Alicia M.; Mordecai, Rua ; Nunes, João Pedro; Nyman, Petter ; Santín, Cristina ; Sheridan, Gary ; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Waddington, James M.; Wei, Yu . 2021. Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply.
• Calkin, David E.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Stratton, Richard . 2021. Strategic wildfire response decision support and the risk management assistance program.
• Gannon, Benjamin M.; Wei, Yu ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe H.; Short, Karen C. 2021. System analysis of wildfire-water supply risk in Colorado, USA with Monte Carlo wildfire and rainfall simulation.
• Arab, Ali ; Khodaei, Amin ; Eskandarpour, Rozhin ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Wei, Yu . 2021. Three lines of defense for wildfire risk management in electric power grids: A review.
• Gannon, Benjamin M.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Deming, Kira Z.; Bayham, Jude ; Wei, Yu ; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2020. A geospatial framework to assess fireline effectiveness for large wildfires in the western USA.
• Wei, Yu ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Belval, Erin ; Gannon, Benjamin ; Calkin, David E.; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2020. Comparing contingency fire containment strategies using simulated random scenarios.
• Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco ; Martinez, Juan Ramon Molina; Thompson, Matthew P.; O’Connor, Kit . 2020. Landscape and Wildfires Seminary: Diagnosis and suppression, methodological advances.
• Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco ; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Martinez, Juan Ramon Molina; Calkin, David E. 2020. Modelling suppression difficulty: Current and future applications.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Bayham, Jude ; Belval, Erin . 2020. Potential COVID-19 outbreak in fire camp: Modeling scenarios and interventions.
• Bayham, Jude ; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Dunn, Christopher ; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E. 2020. Weather, risk, and resource orders on large wildland fires in the western US.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Abrams, Jesse ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Johnston, James D.; Stratton, Rick ; Gilbertson-Day, Julie . 2020. Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality.
• Schultz, Courtney A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; McCaffrey, Sarah M. 2019. Forest Service fire management and the elusiveness of change.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Wei, Yu ; Calkin, David E.; O'Connor, Christopher D.; Dunn, Christopher ; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Hogland, John S. 2019. Risk management and analytics in wildfire response.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Reilly, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2019. Spatial and temporal assessment of responder exposure to snag hazards in post-fire environments.
• Riley, Karin L.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe H.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2018. A model-based framework to evaluate alternative wildfire suppression strategies.
• Belval, Erin J.; Calkin, David E.; Wei, Yu ; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Masarie, Alex . 2018. Examining dispatching practices for Interagency Hotshot Crews to reduce seasonal travel distance and manage fatigue.
• Torres, Hugo ; Pacheco, Abilio Pereira; Claro, Joao ; Salis, Michele ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Diana, Gavino ; Cocco, Silvio . 2018. Flexible design of a helipad network for forest firefighting helicopters, applied to the case of Sardinia Chapter 7.
• Katuwal, Hari ; Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew ; Stonesifer, Crystal ; Calkin, David . 2018. Predict and attack (or don t): An econometric approach to large wildfire early detection and suppression effectiveness.
• Wei, Yu; Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Dillon, Gregory K.; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2018. Spatial optimization of operationally relevant large fire confine and point protection strategies: Model development and test cases.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2017. A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm.
• Riley, Karin; Thompson, Matthew. 2017. An uncertainty analysis of wildfire modeling Chapter 13.
• Haas, Jessica; Thompson, Matthew; Tillery, Anne; Scott, Joe H. 2017. Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris flow hazard assessments Chapter 20.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Riley, Karin L.; Loeffler, Dan; Haas, Jessica R. 2017. Modeling fuel treatment leverage: Encounter rates, risk reduction, and suppression cost impacts.
• Thompson, Matthew; Warmink, Jord J. 2017. Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis Chapter 2.
• Belval, Erin J.; Wei, Yu; Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tipton, John R. 2017. Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Systems thinking and wildland fire management.
• Hand, Michael; Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. Towards enhanced risk management: Planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response.
• Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, David; Scott, Joe H.; Hand, Michael. 2017. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States Chapter 4.
• Riley, Karin; Thompson, Matthew; Webley, Peter; Hyde, Kevin D. 2017. Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume Chapter 1.
• Wei, Yu; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S. 2016. A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Bowden, Phil; Brough, April; Scott, Joe H.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Taylor, Alan; Anderson, Jennifer; Haas, Jessica. 2016. Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA.
• Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2016. Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA.
• Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave. 2016. Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2016. Fighting fire in the heat of the day: An analysis of operational and environmental conditions of use for large airtankers in United States fire suppression.
• O'Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco. 2016. Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: Quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Calkin, Dave. 2016. Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Zimmerman, Tom; Mindar, Dan; Taber, Mary. 2016. Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community.
• Cooke, Brian; Elliot, William; Miller, Mary Ellen; Finney, Mark; Thompson, Matthew. 2016. Science You Can Use (SYCU) - Protecting the source: Tools to evaluate fuel treatment cost vs. water quality protection.
• Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Bonnot, Thomas W.; Thompson, Frank R. 2016. Uncertainty is information, too.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave; McHugh, Charles W. 2015. Characterizing large airtanker use in United States fire management.
• Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS).
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Scott, Joe H.; Langowski, Paul; Bowne, Elise; Calkin, David E. 2015. Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S.; Browne, Mark J.; Halek, Martin; Short, Karen C.; Grenfell, Isaac C. 2015. Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling.
• Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management (Publ.).
• Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2015. Exploring how alternative mapping approaches influence fireshed assessment and human community exposure to wildfire.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Scott, Joe H. 2015. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2015. Modeling fuel treatment impacts on fire suppression cost savings: A review.
• Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A. 2015. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management.
• Hand, Michael S.; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management.
• Thompson, Matthew; Dunn, Christopher; Calkin, Dave. 2015. Wildfires: Systemic changes required.
• Scott, J. H.; Helmbrecht, D. J.; Thompson, M. P. 2014. Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Kaiden, Jeffrey D. 2014. Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions.
• Hand, Michael S.; Gebert, Krista M.; Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Zhou, Mo. 2014. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models.
• Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; McHugh, Charles W. 2014. Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States.
• Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.; Miller, Lara W.; Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards - a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico.
• Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA.
• Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Kaiden, Jeffrey D.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2013. A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Gebert, Krista M.; Hand, Michael S. 2013. A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Langowski, Paul G.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Haas, Jessica R.; Bowne, Elise M. 2013. Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Seli, Robert C.; Hovorka, Marlena. 2013. Developing standardized strategic response categories for fire management units.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Hand, Michael S.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Nalle, Darek J. 2013. Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E. 2013. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.
• Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gebert, Krista M.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2013. Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gebert, Krista M.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2013. Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs volume.
• Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Hand, Michael S.; Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron J.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.
• Warziniack, Travis; Thompson, Matthew. 2013. Wildfire risk and optimal investments in watershed protection.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Herynk, Jason; McHugh, Charles W.; Short, Karen C. 2012. Airtankers and wildfire management in the US Forest Service: examining data availability and exploring usage and cost trends.
• Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew; Thompson, Matthew P. 2012. Estimating US federal wildland fire managers' preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives.
• Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Marcille, Kate. 2012. Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure.
• Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Bliss, Andrew. 2012. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests.
• Malcolm, Karl; Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, Dave; Finney, Mark; Ager, Alan. 2012. Science You Can Use (SYCU): Wildfire triage - Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, Dave E.; Vaillant, Nicole M. 2012. The science and opportunity of wildfire risk assessment (Chapter 6).
• Calkin, David E.; Ager, Alan A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A.; Lee, Danny C.; Quigley, Thomas M.; McHugh, Charles W.; Riley, Karin L.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie M. 2011. A comparative risk assessment framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report.
• Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A.; Hyde, Kevin D. 2011. A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Ager, Alan A. 2011. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2011. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values.
• Calkin, David C.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2011. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making.
• Calkin, Dave; Phipps, John; Holmes, Tom; Rieck, Jon; Thompson, Matt. 2011. The Exposure Index: Developing firefighter safety performance measures.
• Thompson, Matthew; Sessions, John; Boston, Kevin; Skaugset, Arne; Tomberlin, David. 2010. Forest road erosion control using multiobjective optimization.

Research Highlights

Highlight	Title	Year
RMRS-2016-8	Assessing Wildfire Risk to Communities and to Natural and Cultural Resources New wildfire risk assessment methods form the scientific basis for the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy, an effort of federal ...	2016
RMRS-2020-32	Modeling COVID-19 Potential in Fire Camps As a science-based, data-driven agency, the USDA Forest Service regularly conducts risk-based analysis to inform leadership and improve the over ...	2020
RMRS-2013-129	Report Offers Framework for Wildfire Risk Assessment and Decision Support Scientists crafted a framework for wildfire risk assessment and applied the framework to support fire-management decision making processes on mu ...	2013
RMRS-2012-17	Risk Analysis Prioritizes Investments in Hazardous Fuels Reduction Scientists mitigate the adverse impacts of wildland fires	2012
RMRS-2019-58	Snag Hazard to Firefighters Persists Long After the Smoke Has Cleared A new tool developed through collaboration between USDA Forest Service and Oregon State University researchers tracks treefall through time and ...	2019