Current Research

Dr. Jolly's research is focused in three main areas:

Physiological controls of flammability in living plants

Modeling wildland fire potential and behavior.

Science delivery of spatial wildland fire potential information.

Recent Publications:

Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Holden, Zachary A.; Brown, Timothy J.; Williamson, Grant J.; Bowman, David M. J. S. 2015. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Nature Communications. 6: 7537.

Jolly, W. Matt; Hadlow, Ann M.; Huguet, Kathleen. 2014. De-coupling seasonal changes in water content and dry matter to predict live conifer foliar moisture content. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23(4): 480-489.

Research Interests

Dr. Jolly's research interests are diverse but they generally focus in two primary areas: physiological controls of live plant combustion and fire danger assessment research.

Much is know about how fires ignite and spread through dead plant biomass but very little is known about how living plants burn. He is interested in describing the physiological constraints to live fuel flammability and better understanding how we can assess the fire potential in live vegetation. Most of the fires throughout the country happen in mixtures of living and dead plants, so it is important to understand the factors that lead to intense and / or rapidly spreading fires. If one can define the physiological criteria that lead to elevated flammability, one can better plan for and respond to wildland fires. Further, it is important to understand how these characteristics are altered when forests are disturbed by insects such as the Mountain Pine Beetle. This new knowledge is critical to providing managers the information they need to best manage public lands throughout the world.

Second, basic knowledge of the fire potential must be translated into metrics that fire managers can use for fire planning and wildfire response. Therefore his second main research interest revolves around modeling and mapping key factors that drive changes in wildland fire potential across landscapes. He has have developed models and systems that can use weather and fuels data to map changes in fire potential and we have made this information available to local, state and federal fire managers throughout the country through the Wildland Fire Assessment System.

Example Publications:

Jolly, W. Matt; Parsons, Russell A.; Hadlow, Ann M.; Cohn, Greg M.; McAllister, Sara S.; Popp, John B.; Hubbard, Robert M.; Negron, Jose F. 2012. Relationships between moisture, chemistry, and ignition of Pinus contorta needles during the early stages of mountain pine beetle attack. Forest Ecology and Management. 269: 52-59.

Past Research

Dr. Jolly's past work was more focused on global phenology and productivity. Particularly, he developed a globally-applicable model of vegetation foliar phenology that has been widely used in phenology and climate change research (Jolly et. al. 2005). Additionally, he leverage global vegetation and weather data to assess long-term changes in global land surface net primary productivity (Nemani et. al. 2003).


Further reading:
Nemani, R.R.;Keeling, C.D.;Hashimoto, H.; Jolly, W.M.;Piper, S.C.;Tucker, C.J.;Myneni, R.B.;Running, S.W.; 2003; Climate-Driven Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300(5625) 1560-1563. doi: 10.1126/science.1082750

Jolly, W.M.; Nemani, R.R.; Running, S.W.; 2005. A generalized, bioclimatic index to predict foliar phenology in response to climate. Global Change Biology 11(4) 619-632, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00930.x

Stockli, R.; Rutishauser, T.; Dragoni, D.; O'Keefe, J.; Thornton, P. E.; Jolly, M.; Lu, L.; Denning, A. S. 2008. Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model. Journal of Geophysical Research. 113: G04021, doi:10.1029/2008JG000781.

Why This Research is Important

Wildland fires are now more common and they burn more area than any time in the record past. New knowledge and new tools are needed to address these changing conditions. Dr. Jolly's research is at the forefront of science and is advancing our knowledge of the conditions lead to extreme and costly wildfires. His work has the potential to help address a critical knowledge gap that could improve our ability to manage landscapes for resilience.

Read more about why this work is needed:
Finney, Mark A.; Cohen, Jack D.; McAllister, Sara S.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2012. On the need for a theory of wildland fire spread. International Journal of Wildland Fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 25-36.

Education

• University of Montana, Phd Forestry 2004
• University of Virginia, Bachelor Of Arts Environmental Sciences with emphasis in Ecology 2000
• Community College of the Air Force, Associates Of Applied Science Electronic Systems Technologies 1995

Professional Organizations

• American Meteorological Society, Member (2005 - Current)
• American Geophysical Union, Member (2004 - Current)
• International Association of Wildland Fire, Member (2003 - Current)

Awards & Recognition

Featured Publications & Products

• Stockli, R.; Rutishauser, T.; Dragoni, D.; O'Keefe, J.; Thornton, P. E.; Jolly, M.; Lu, L.; Denning, A. S. 2008. Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Holden, Zachary A.; Brown, Timothy J.; Williamson, Grant J.; Bowman, David M. J. S. 2015. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Hadlow, Ann M.; Huguet, Kathleen. 2014. De-coupling seasonal changes in water content and dry matter to predict live conifer foliar moisture content.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Parsons, Russell A.; Hadlow, Ann M.; Cohn, Greg M.; McAllister, Sara S.; Popp, John B.; Hubbard, Robert M.; Negron, Jose F. 2012. Relationships between moisture, chemistry, and ignition of Pinus contorta needles during the early stages of mountain pine beetle attack.
• Holden, Zachary A.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2011. Modeling topographic influences on fuel moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire management decision support.

Publications

• Dillon, Gregory K.; Panunto, Matthew H.; Davis, Brett ; Morgan, Penelope ; Birch, Donovan S.; Jolly, William M. 2020. Development of a Severe Fire Potential map for the contiguous United States.
• Briones-Herrera, Carlos Ivan; Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose; Monjaras-Vega, Norma Angelica; Briseno-Reyes, Jaime ; Lopez-Serrano, Pablito Marcelo; Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier; Alvarado-Celestino, Ernesto ; Arellano-Perez, Stefano ; Alvarez-Gonzalez, Juan Gabriel; Ruiz-Gonzalez, Ana Daria; Jolly, William Mathew; Parks, Sean A. 2020. Near real-time automated early mapping of the perimeter of large forest fires from the aggregation of VIIRS and MODIS active fires in Mexico.
• Page, Wesley G.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Butler, Bret W.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2019. A classification of US wildland firefighter entrapments based on coincident fuels, weather, and topography.
• Page, Wesley G.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Butler, Bret W.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2019. A review of US wildland firefighter entrapments: Trends, important environmental factors and research needs.
• Briones-Herrera, Carlos Ivan; Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose; Monjaras-Vega, Norma Angelica; Flores-Medina, Favian ; Lopez-Serrano, Pablito Marcelo; Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio ; Pulgarin-Gamiz, Miguel Angel; Alvarado-Celestino, Ernesto ; Gonzalez-Caban, Armando ; Arellano-Perez, Stefano ; Alvarez-Gonzalez, Juan Gabriel; Ruiz-Gonzalez, Ana Daría; Jolly, William Mathew. 2019. Modeling and mapping forest fire occurrence from aboveground carbon density in Mexico.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Page, Wesley G.; Butler, Bret W. 2019. Severe Fire Danger Index: A forecastable metric to inform firefighter and community wildfire risk management.
• Jimenez-Ruano, Adrian ; Mimbrero, Marcos Rodrigues; Jolly, W. Matt; de la Riva Fernandez, Juan . 2019. The role of short-term weather conditions in temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain.
• Bowman, David M. J. S.; Daniels, Lori D.; Johnston, Fay H.; Williamson, Grant J.; Jolly, W. Matt; Magzamen, Sheryl ; Rappold, Ana G.; Brauer, Michael ; Henderson, Sarah B. 2018. Can air quality management drive sustainable fuels management at the temperate wildland-urban interface.
• Holden, Zachary A.; Swanson, Alan ; Luce, Charles H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Maneta, Marco ; Oyler, Jared W.; Warren, Dyer A.; Parsons, Russell ; Affleck, David . 2018. Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity.
• Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Panunto, Matthew H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dillon, Gregory K. 2018. High-severity fire: Evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests.
• Parsons, Russell A.; Pimont, Francois ; Wells, Lucas ; Cohn, Greg ; Jolly, W. Matt; de Coligny, Francois ; Rigolot, Eric ; Dupuy, Jean-Luc ; Mell, William ; Linn, Rodman R. 2018. Modeling thinning effects on fire behavior with STANDFIRE.
• Daham, Afrah ; Han, Dawei ; Jolly, W. Matt; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel ; Marsh, Anke . 2018. Predicting vegetation phenology in response to climate change using bioclimatic indices in Iraq.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Johnson, Daniel M. 2018. Pyro-ecophysiology: Shifting the paradigm of live wildland fuel research.
• Mason, Shelby A.; Hamlington, Peter E.; Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Hoffman, Chad M. 2017. Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Freeborn, Patrick H. 2017. Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin.
• Goodrick, Scott L.; Brown, Timothy J.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2017. Weather, fuels, fire behavior, plumes, and smoke - the nexus of fire meteorology.
• Freeborn, Patrick H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A. 2016. Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in U.S. wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014.
• Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S. 2016. Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case.
• Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave E.; Jolly, Matt. 2016. Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States.
• Qi, Yi; Jolly, Matt; Dennison, Philip E.; Kropp, Rachael C. 2016. Seasonal relationships between foliar moisture content, heat content and biochemistry of lodge pole pine and big sagebrush foliage.
• Jolly, Matt; Hintz, John; Linn, Rodman L.; Kropp, Rachael C.; Conrad, Elliot T.; Parsons, Russell A.; Winterkamp, Judith. 2016. Seasonal variations in red pine (Pinus resinosa) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) foliar physio-chemistry and their potential influence on stand-scale wildland fire behavior.
• Sopko, Paul; Bradshaw, Larry; Jolly, Matt. 2016. Spatial products available for identifying areas of likely wildfire ignitions using lightning location data-Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS).
• Werth, Paul A.; Potter, Brian E.; Alexander, Martin E.; Clements, Craig B.; Cruz, Miguel G.; Finney, Mark A.; Forthofer, Jason M.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Hoffman, Chad; Jolly, W. Matt; McAllister, Sara S.; Ottmar, Roger D.; Parsons, Russell A. 2016. Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume 2 for fire behavior specialists, researchers, and meteorologists.
• Peterson, Birgit; Nelson, Kurtis J.; Seielstad, Carl; Stoker, Jason; Jolly, W. Matt; Parsons, Russell. 2015. Automated integration of lidar into the LANDFIRE product suite.
• Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. 2015. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT.
• Freeborn, Patrick H.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2015. Relationships between fire danger and the daily number and daily growth of active incidents burning in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA.
• Parsons, Russ; Jolly, Matt; Langowski, Paul; Matonis, Megan; Miller, Sue. 2014. Post-epidemic fire risk and behavior Chapter 3.
• Qi, Yi; Dennison, Philip E.; Jolly, W. Matt; Kropp, Rachael C.; Brewer, Simon C. 2014. Spectroscopic analysis of seasonal changes in live fuel moisture content and leaf dry mass.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Hadlow, Ann M. 2012. A comparison of two methods for estimating conifer live foliar moisture content.
• Jolly, W. Matt; Parsons, Russell; Varner, J. Morgan; Butler, Bret W.; Ryan, Kevin C.; Gucker, Corey L. 2012. Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests.
• Finney, Mark A.; Cohen, Jack D.; McAllister, Sara S.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2012. On the need for a theory of wildland fire spread.
• McAllister, S.; Grenfell, I.; Hadlow, A.; Jolly, W. M.; Finney, M.; Cohen, J. 2012. Piloted ignition of live forest fuels.
• Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy V.; Anantharaj, Valentine G.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2012. Wildfire potential mapping over the state of Mississippi: A land surface modeling approach.
• Grenfell, Isaac C.; Finney, Mark; Jolly, Matt. 2010. Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather.
• Jolly, Matt; McAllister, Sara; Finney, Mark; Hadlow, Ann. 2010. Time to ignition is influenced by both moisture content and soluble carbohydrates in live Douglas fir and Lodgepole pine needles.

Research Highlights

Highlight	Title	Year
RMRS-2018-80	An update of the National Fire Danger Rating System The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) is a system that allows fire managers to estimate today's or tomorrow's fire danger for a given a ...	2018
RMRS-2015-96	Climate-induced Variations in Global Wildfire Danger from 1979 to 2013 Identifying the driving factors of contemporary wildfire activity changes to ensure that wildfires are effectively managed to promote healthy ec ...	2015
RMRS-2018-87	Decreasing number of rainy days in summer has increased western wildfire New research shows that significant declines in summer precipitation, and lengthening summer dry spells, are major drivers of the increase in fi ...	2018
RMRS-2011-15	Mountain pine beetle effects on fire behavior Studies are shining light on how pine beetles affect wildfire.	2011