Current Research

1. Using the forest landscape dynamics model LANDIS-II to scale site-level experimental research knowledge to policy-relevant scales. 2. Predicting tree mortality as a function of drought. 3. Studying complex interactions of multiple ecological processes using a process-based landscape model (LANDIS-II). The process-based approach allows novel conditions (e.g., changing climate) to interact with disturbance and succession processes such that their combined effects are an emergent property of the simulations.

Research Interests

1. Development and application of LANDIS-II to study the effects of climate change and management alternatives on disturbance regimes, forest composition, and spatial pattern in temperate and boreal forests around the world. 2. Transfer of sophisticated modeling technology to forest managers and decision-makers.

Past Research

1. I developed a timber harvest simulation (HARVEST), which allows scientists to simulate timber management strategies in a spatially explicit manner through time. I am using HARVEST to study the cumulative effects of the various objectives of multiple landowners across an entire landscape. 2. I helped develop the LANDIS forest succession and disturbance model. I am working with other scientists to study the interactions among human and natural disturbances to determine the risk of wildfire within large landscapes.

Why This Research is Important

This is important to help managers account for complex spatial and ecological interactions as they plan management strategies for large landscapes. These decision-support models allow managers to predict how proposed management options are likely to play out over large areas and long time periods.

Education

• Purdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Lafayette, IN., Ph.D. Landscape Ecology 1992
• SUNY-College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, M.S. Wildlife Ecology. 1983
• Wheaton College (IL), B.S. Biology. 1978

Professional Experience

Professional Organizations

• Ecological Society of America (1983 - Present)
• International Association for Landscape Ecology (1990 - Present)
• International Association for Landscape Ecology (U.S. Chapter) (1990 - Present)
• International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) (1996 - Present)

Awards & Recognition

Featured Publications & Products

• Gustafson, Eric; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Scheller, Robert; Sturtevant, Brian. 2011. Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in Siberia.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Shvidenko, Anatoly S.; Scheller, Robert M. 2010. Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Scheller, Robert M. 2010. Using LANDIS II to study the effects of global change in Siberia.
• Gustafson, Eric; Shvidenko, Anatoly D.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Scheller, Robert M. 2010. Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Loehle, Craig. 2008. How will the changing industrial forest landscape affect forest sustainability.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Lytle, David E.; Swaty, Randy; Loehle, Craig. 2007. Simulating the cumulative effects of multiple forest management strategies on landscape measures of forest sustainability.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 1998. Quantifying Landscape Spatial Pattern: What Is the State of the Art.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Zollner, Patrick A.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Hong, S. He; Mladenoff, David J. 2004. Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin, USA.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Shifley, Stephen R.; Mladenoff, David J.; Nimerfro, Kevin K.; He, Hong S. 2000. Spatial simulation of forest succession and timber harvesting using LANDIS.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Potts, Robert . 2005. The relationship between environmental amenities and changing human settlement patterns between 1980 and 2000 in the Midwestern USA.

Publications

• Gustafson, Eric ; Miranda, Brian ; Sturtevant, Brian . 2018. Can Future CO2 Concentrations Mitigate the Negative Effects of High Temperature and Longer Droughts on Forest Growth.
• Liang, Yu; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Thompson, Jonathan R. 2018. How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change.
• Lucash, Melissa S.; Scheller, Robert M.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Kretchun, Alec M.; Foster, Jane R. 2018. More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Miranda, Brian R.; De Bruijn, Arjan M.G.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Kubiske, Mark E. 2017. Do rising temperatures always increase forest productivity Interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and soil texture on tree species growth and competition.
• Duveneck, Matthew J.; Thompson, Jonathan R.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Liang, Yu; de Bruijn, Arjan M. G. 2017. Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2017. Simulating forest management and its effect on landscape pattern.
• De Jager, Nathan R.; Drohan, Patrick J.; Miranda, Brian M.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Stout, Susan L.; Royo, Alejandro A.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Romanski, Mark C. 2017. Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II.
• Lucash, Melissa S.; Scheller, Robert M.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Sturtevant, Brian R. 2017. Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; de Bruijn, Arjan; Lichti, Nathanael; Jacobs, Douglass F.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Foster, Jane; Miranda, Brian R.; Dalgleish, Harmony J. 2017. The implications of American chestnut reintroduction on landscape dynamics and carbon storage.
• Shifley, Stephen R.; He, Hong S.; Lischke, Heike; Wang, Wen J.; Jin, Wenchi; Gustafson, Eric J.; Thompson, Jonathan R.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Yang, Jian. 2017. The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; De Bruijn, Arjan M. G.; Miranda, Brian R.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Thompson, J. 2016. Implications of mechanistic modeling of drought effects on growth and competition in forest landscape models.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Lucash, Melissa; Liem, Johannes; Jenny, Helen; Scheller, Rob; Barrett, Kelly; Sturtevant, Brian R. 2016. Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas J. 2015. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; De Bruijn, Arjan M.G.; Pangle, Robert E.; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G.; Pockman, William T.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Muss, Jordan D.; Kubiske, Mark E. 2015. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2014. Applicability of predictive models of drought-induced tree mortality between the midwest and northeast United States.
• de Bruijn, Arjan; Gustafson, Eric J.; Kashian, Daniel M.; Dalgleish, Harmony J.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Jacobs, Douglass F. 2014. Decomposition rates of American chestnut (Castanea dentata) wood and implications for coarse woody debris pools.
• Dayneko, Dennis V.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2014. Institutional innovations in the forest industry in Russia: a case study of Irkutsk province.
• De Bruijn, A.; Gustafson, E.J.; Sturtevant, B.R.; Foster, J.R.; Miranda, B.R.; Lichti, N.I.; Jacobs, D.F. 2014. Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: embedding PnET within LANDIS-II.
• Gustafson, Eric J; Sturtevant, Brian R. 2013. Modeling forest mortality caused by drought stress: implications for climate change.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Kubiske, Mark E.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R. 2013. Scaling Aspen-FACE experimental results to century and landscape scales.
• Pauli, Benjamin P.; McCann, Nicholas P.; Zollner, Patrick A.; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2013. Spatially explicit animal response to composition of habitat.
• Dayneko, Dennis V.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2013. The history and future of the forest industry of Irkutsk province.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2013. Using expert knowledge in landscape ecology Book review.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2013. When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world.
• Sturtevant, Brian R; Miranda, Brian R; Shinneman, Douglas J; Gustafson, Eric J; Wolter, Peter T. 2012. Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2012. D. McKenzie, C. Miller and D.A. Falk, eds. The Landscape Ecology of Fire book review.
• Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Gustafson, Eric; McGuire, A. David; Kharuk, Vjacheslav I.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry G.; Shugart, Herman H.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Vygodskaya, Natalia N.; Onuchin, Alexander A.; Hayes, Daniel J.; McCallum, Ian; Maksyutov, Shamil; Mukhortova, Ludmila V.; Soja, Amber J.; Belelli-Marchesini, Luca; Kurbatova, Julia A.; Oltchev, Alexander V.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Shuman, Jacquelyn K. 2012. Terrestrial ecosystems and their change.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Scheller, Robert M. 2011. Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south-central Siberia.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2011. Publishing landscape ecology research in the 21st Century.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2010. Ecological restoration book review.
• Birdsey, R.A.; Lucas, R.; Pan, Y.; Sun, G.; Gustafson, E.J.; Perera, A.H. . 2010. Managing landscapes at multiple scales for sustainability of ecosystem functions (Preface).
• Gustafson, Eric. 2010. US-IALE Presidency: The Gustafson administration, 2002-2004.
• Miranda, Brian R.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Yang, Jian; Gustafson, Eric J. 2009. Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models.
• Shvidenko, A.; Gustafson, E. 2009. Forest forming process and dynamic vegetation models under global change.
• Scheller, Robert M.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Ward, Brendan C.; Mladenoff, David J. 2009. Increasing the reliability of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques.
• Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Scheller, Robert M. 2009. Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk.
• Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2008. Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks.
• Zollner, Patrick A.; Roberts, L. Jay; Gustafson, Eric J.; He, Hong S.; Radeloff, Volker. 2008. Influence of forest planning alternatives on landscape pattern and ecosystem processes in northern Wisconsin, USA.
• Scheller, Robert M.; Domingo, James B.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Williams, Jeremy S.; Rudy, Arnold; Gustafson, Eric J.; Mladenoff, David J. 2007. Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 2007. Relative influence of the components of timber harvest strategies on landscape pattern.
• Yang, Jian; Healy, Hong S.; Shifley, Stephen R.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2007. Spatial patterns of modern period human-caused fire occurrence in the Missouri Ozark Highlands.
• Kramer, Daniel Boyd; Polasky, Stephen; Starfield, Anthony; Palik, Brian; Westphal, Lynn; Snyder, Stephanie; Jakes, Pamela; Hudson, Rachel; Gustafson, Eric. 2006. A Comparison of Alternative Strategies for Cost-Effective Water Quality Management in Lakes.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Loehle, Craig. 2006. Effects of parcelization and land divestiture on forest sustainability in simulated forest landscapes.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Roberts, L. Jay; Leefers, Larry A. 2006. Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives.
• Radeloff, Volker C.; Mladenoff, David J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Scheller, Robert M.; Zollner, Patrick A.; Heilman, Hong S.; Akcakaya, H. Resit. 2006. Modeling forest harvesting effects on landscape pattern in the Northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens.
• Bergen, Kathleen M.; Brown, Daniel G.; Rutherford, James F.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2005. Change detection with heterogeneous data using ecoregional stratification, statistical summaries and a land allocation algorithm.
• Saunders, Sari C.; Chen, Jiquan; Drummer, Thomas D.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Brosofske, Kimberley D. 2005. Identifying scales of pattern in ecological data: a comparison of lacunarity, spectral and wavelet analyses.
• He, Hong S.; Li, Wei; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Yang, Jian; Shang, Bo Z.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Mladenoff, David J. 2005. LANDIS 4.0 users guide. LANDIS: a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession.
• Zollner, Patrick A.; Gustafson, Eric J.; He, Hong S.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Mladenoff, David J. 2005. Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape.
• Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2004. A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS.
• Sturtevant, Brian R.; Zollner, Patrick A.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Cleland, David T. 2004. Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA.
• Sturtevant, Brian R.; Zoller, Patrick A.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Cleland, David T. 2004. Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA.
• Sturtevant, Brian R.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Li, Wei; He, Hong S. 2004. Modeling biological disturbances in LANDIS: a module description and demonstration using spruce budworm.
• Sturtevant, Brian R.; Gustafson, Eric J.; He, Hong S. 2004. Modeling disturbance and succession in forest landscapes using LANDIS: introduction.
• Gardner, Robert H.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2004. Simulating dispersal of reintroduced species within heterogeneous landscapes.
• He, Hong S.; Shang, Bo Z.; Crow, Thomas R.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Shifley, Stephen R. 2004. Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design.
• Potts, Robert; Gustafson, Eric; Stewart, Susan I.; Thompson, Frank R.; Bergen, Kathleen; Brown, Daniel G.; Hammer, Roger; Radeloff, Volker; Bengston, David; Sauer, John; Sturtevant, Brian. 2004. The Changing Midwest Assessment: land cover, natural resources, and people.
• Leefers, Larry A.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Freeman, Phillip. 2003. Linking Temporal-Optimization and Spatial-Simulation Models for Forest Planning.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Lietz, Sue M.; Wright, John L. 2003. Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Aspen Growth Potential in the Upper Great Lakes Region.
• Euskirchen, Eugénie; Chen, Jiquan; Gustafson, Eric J.; Ma, Siyan; Ma, Siyan. 2003. Soil Respiration at Dominant Patch Types within a Managed Northern Wisconsin Landscape.
• Euskirchen, Eugenie S.; Chen, Jiquan; Gustafson, Eric J.; Ma, Siyan. 2003. Soil respiration at dominant patch types within a managed northern Wisconsin landscape.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Rasmussen, Luke V.; Leefers, Larry A. 2003. Spec2Harv: Converting Spectrum output to HARVEST input.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Rasmussen, Luke V. 2002. Assessing the spatial implications of interactions among strategic forest management options using a Windows-based harvest simulator..
• Gustafson, Eric; Nestler, John; Gross, Louis; Reynolds, Keith M.; Yaussy, Daniel; Maxwell, Thomas P.; Dale, Virginia H. 2002. Evolving Approaches and Technologies to Enhance the Role of Ecological Modeling in Decision Making.
• Euskirchen, Eugenie S.; Chen, Jiquan; Li, Harbin; Gustafson, Eric J.; Crow, Thomas R. 2002. Modeling landscape net ecosystem productivity (LandNEP) under alternative management regimes.
• Hong, S. He; Mladenoff, David J.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2002. Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance.
• ​Saunders, Sari C.; Chen, Jiquan; Drummer, Thomas D.; Crow, Thomas R.; Brosofske, Kimberley D.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2002. The patch mosaic and ecological decomposition across spatial scales in a managed landscape of northern Wisconsin, USA.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Murphy, Nathan L.; Crow, Thomas R. 2001. Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans.
• Twery, Mark J. ; Rauscher, H. Michael; Bennett, Deborah J.; Thomasma, Scott A.; Stout, Susan L.; Palmer, James F.; Hoffman, Robin E.; DeCalesta, David S.; Gustafson, Eric; Grove, J. Morgan; Nute, Donald; Kim, Geneho; Kollasch, R. Peter. 2000. NED-1: integrated analyses for forest stewardship decisions.
• Twery, Mark J.; Rauscher, H. Michael; Bennett, Deborah J.; Thomasma, Scott A.; Stout, Susan L.; Palmer, James F.; Hoffman, Robin E.; DeCalesta, David S.; Gustafson, Eric; Cleveland, Helene; Grove, J. Morgan; Nute, Donald; Kim, Geneho; Kollasch, R. Peter. 2000. NED-1: integrated analyses for forest stewardship decisions.
• Fauth, Peter T.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Rabenold, Kerry N. 2000. Using landscape metrics to model source habitat for Neotropical migrants in the midwestern U.S..
• Shifley, Steven R.; Thompson, Frank R., III; Larsen, David R.; Mladenoff, David J.; Gustafson, Eric J. 2000. Utilizing inventory information to calibrate a landscape simulation model.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Crow, Thomas R. 1999. HARVEST: linking timber harvesting strategies to landscape patterns.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 1998. Clustering Timber Harvests and the Effects of Dynamic Forest Management Policy on Forest Fragmentation.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Crow, Thomas R. 1998. Simulating spatial and temporal context of forest management using hypothetical landscapes.
• Tang, Swee May; Gustafson, Eric J. 1997. Perception of scale in forest management planning: Challenges and implications.
• Spetich, Martin A.; Parker, George R.; Gustafson, Eric J. 1997. Spatial and Temporal Relationships of Old-Growth and Secondary Forests in Indiana, USA.
• Gustafson, Eric J. 1996. Expanding the scale of forest management: allocating timber harvests in time and space.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Crow, Thomas. 1996. Simulating the Effects of Alternative Forest Management Strategies on Landscape Structure.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Crow, Thomas R. 1994. Modeling the effects of forest harvesting on landscape structure and the spatial distribution of cowbird brood parasitism.
• Gustafson, Eric J.; Parker, George R. 1994. Using an index of habitat patch proximity for landscape design.

Research Highlights

Highlight	Title	Year
NRS-2016-106	LandViz: Visualization of Landscape Model Outputs to Support Management Decisions Forest Service scientists developed an intuitive, browser-based tool called "LandViz" that allows stakeholders to easily visualize how climate a ...	2016
NRS-2014-009	Mechanistic Landscape Modeling of Drought Effects Drought is expected to become more prevalent and will probably be a major factor in increasing tree mortality. Landscape-scale forest models hav ...	2014
NRS-2012-34	Model Assesses the Influence of Drought Stress on Forest Relative to Other Factors Drought stress data added to a forest landscape disturbance and succession model show that length of drought is more important than severity	2012
NRS-2016-162	Scaling Up Ecosystem Impacts of the Pagami Creek Fire in Northern Minnesota Quantifying fire severity is critical to understanding the ecosystem impacts of wildfire. Forest Service research demonstrates the magnitude of ...	2016
NRS-2013-003	Scientists Predict Survivability Factors for Northern Forests Given Elevated CO2 and Ozone Levels The researchers scaled up a high-profile 11-year ecosystem experiment called Aspen-FACE to assess how elevated carbon dioxide and ozone levels m ...	2013
NRS-2017-19	Scientists model the effects of restoring the American chestnut tree to the eastern U.S. landscape The American chestnut tree is fast growing, somewhat tolerant of shade, and its wood is resistant to decay. The chestnut tree might be capable o ...	2017