Current Research

My research broadly focuses on the application of management sciences to wildland fire and fuels management with specific research interests including: 1) wildland fire risk assessment, 2) collaborative wildfire response planning, 3) suppression effectiveness, 4) risk informed decision making, 5) performance measurement, 6) supression response planning, and 7) decision support system development and application. 

Research Interests

My research interests are in exploring how to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the wiland fire management system.

Past Research

My research covers almost all aspects of wildfire management from pre-season fire and fuels planning, incident decision making, and performance measurement to post-fire recovery. I developed and lead the Wildfire Risk Management Science team of interdisciplinary researchers that develop and implement innovative approaches to significant knowledge expansion, new models, and decision support tools that improve the effectiveness of wildfire management.  The team's development and implementation of Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) represents a major advance in the application of science based tools to inform suppression response planning. I was one of the orginal developers of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) and have been the science lead on the Risk Management Assistance (RMA) program since its inception.

Why This Research is Important

Increasing severity and extent of wildfire is having devastating impacts on natural resources and communities across the globe.  Within the USDA Forest Service, wildfire mangement represents over 60 percent of total dollars spent and significantly impacts the Agency's ability to meet its core goal of caring for the land and the people. A number of challenges restrict our ability to ensure that fire management investments are effective and efficient in reducing loss. Risk assessment tools present opportunities to consistently measure the effectiveness of fire management activities and economic analysis can inform appropriate investment structures to protect both developed and highly valued natural resources.

Education

• University of Virginia, B.S. Applied Mathematics 1988
• University of Montana, M.S. Natural Resource Conservation 1994
• Oregon State University, Ph.D. Economics 2000

Featured Publications & Products

• Calkin, David E.; Cohen, Jack D.; Finney, Mark A.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface.
• Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A. 2015. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Calkin, Dave. 2016. Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire.
• Calkin, David E.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie. 2010. Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2011. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values.
• Calkin, David E.; Rieck, Jon D.; Hyde, Kevin D.; Kaiden, Jeffrey D. 2011. Built structure identification in wildland fire decision support.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. Towards enhanced risk management: Planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response.
• Calkin, David C.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2011. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making.
• Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A.; Hyde, Kevin D. 2011. A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking.
• Stetler, Kyle M.; Venn, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2010. The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA.

Publications

• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Belval, Erin J. 2021. Is this flight necessary The Aviation Use Summary (AUS): A framework for strategic, risk-informed aviation decision support.
• Wunder, Sven ; Calkin, Dave E.; Charlton, Val ; Feder, Sarah ; de Arano, Inazio Martínez; Moore, Peter ; Silva, Francisco Rodríguez; Tacconi, Luca ; Vega-García, Cristina . 2021. Resilient landscapes to prevent catastrophic forest fires: Socioeconomic insights towards a new paradigm.
• Calkin, David E.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Stratton, Richard . 2021. Strategic wildfire response decision support and the risk management assistance program.
• Wei, Yu ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Belval, Erin ; Gannon, Benjamin ; Calkin, David E.; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2020. Comparing contingency fire containment strategies using simulated random scenarios.
• Belval, Erin J.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E. 2020. Fire suppression resource scarcity: Current metrics and future performance indicators.
• Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco ; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Martinez, Juan Ramon Molina; Calkin, David E. 2020. Modelling suppression difficulty: Current and future applications.
• Cardil, Adrian ; de-Miguel, Sergio ; Silva, Carlos A.; Reich, Peter B.; Calkin, David ; Brancalion, Pedro H. S.; Vibrans, Alexander C.; Gamarra, Javier G. P.; Zhou, M. ; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Hui, Cang ; Crowther, Thomas W.; Herault, Bruno ; Piotto, Daniel ; Salas-Eljatib, Christian ; Broadbent, Eben North; Zambrano, Angelica M. Almeyda; Picard, Nicolas ; Aragao, Luiz E. O. C.; Bastin, Jean-Francois ; Routh, Devin ; van den Hoogen, Johan ; Peri, Pablo L.; Liang, Jingjing . 2020. Recent deforestation drove the spike in Amazonian forests.
• Bayham, Jude ; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Dunn, Christopher ; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E. 2020. Weather, risk, and resource orders on large wildland fires in the western US.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Abrams, Jesse ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Johnston, James D.; Stratton, Rick ; Gilbertson-Day, Julie . 2020. Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality.
• Calkin, David ; Short, Karen ; Traci, Meg . 2019. California wildfires Chapter 7.
• O’Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E. 2019. Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona).
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Wei, Yu ; Calkin, David E.; O'Connor, Christopher D.; Dunn, Christopher ; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Hogland, John S. 2019. Risk management and analytics in wildfire response.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Reilly, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2019. Spatial and temporal assessment of responder exposure to snag hazards in post-fire environments.
• Calkin, David ; Price, Owen ; Salis, Michele . 2019. WUI risk assessment at the landscape level.
• Riley, Karin L.; Williams, A. Park; Urbanski, Shawn P.; Calkin, David E.; Short, Karen C.; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2019. Will landscape fire increase in the future A systems approach to climate, fire, fuel, and human drivers.
• Belval, Erin J.; Calkin, David E.; Wei, Yu ; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Masarie, Alex . 2018. Examining dispatching practices for Interagency Hotshot Crews to reduce seasonal travel distance and manage fatigue.
• Katuwal, Hari ; Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew ; Stonesifer, Crystal ; Calkin, David . 2018. Predict and attack (or don t): An econometric approach to large wildfire early detection and suppression effectiveness.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Phipps, John . 2018. Rethinking the wildland fire management system.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Lauer, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Rieck, Jon D.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Hand, Michael S. 2018. Wildfire response performance measurement: Current and future directions.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2017. A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Silva, Francisco Rodriguez y; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management.
• O'Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management.
• Katuwal, Hari; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources.
• Belval, Erin J.; Wei, Yu; Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tipton, John R. 2017. Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Systems thinking and wildland fire management.
• Hand, Michael; Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources.
• Wei, Yu; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S. 2016. A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado.
• Prestemon, Jeff; Kruger, Linda; Abt, Karen L.; Bowker, Michael; Brandeis, Consuelo; Calkin, Dave; Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Ham, Charlotte; Holmes, Thomas P.; Kline, Jeffrey; Warziniack, Travis. 2016. Economics and societal considerations of drought.
• Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave. 2016. Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2016. Fighting fire in the heat of the day: An analysis of operational and environmental conditions of use for large airtankers in United States fire suppression.
• Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave E.; Jolly, Matt. 2016. Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States.
• Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, Dave; Hand, Michael S. 2016. Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: A stochastic frontier analysis.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Freeborn, Patrick; Rieck, Jon D.; Calkin, Dave; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Hand, Michael S. 2016. Quantifying the influence of previously burned areas on suppression effectiveness and avoided exposure: A case study of the Las Conchas Fire.
• Riley, Karin; Stonesifer, Crystal; Calkin, Dave; Preisler, Haiganoush. 2015. Assessing predictive services' 7-day fire potential outlook.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave; McHugh, Charles W. 2015. Characterizing large airtanker use in United States fire management.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Scott, Joe H.; Langowski, Paul; Bowne, Elise; Calkin, David E. 2015. Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S.; Browne, Mark J.; Halek, Martin; Short, Karen C.; Grenfell, Isaac C. 2015. Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling.
• Calkin, David E.; Mentis, Mike. 2015. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty.
• Hand, Michael S.; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management.
• Thompson, Matthew; Dunn, Christopher; Calkin, Dave. 2015. Wildfires: Systemic changes required.
• O'Donnell, Derek T.; Venna, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2014. Are wildfire management resources in the United States efficiently allocated to protect resources at risk A case study from Montana.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Kaiden, Jeffrey D. 2014. Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions.
• Hand, Michael S.; Gebert, Krista M.; Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Zhou, Mo. 2014. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models.
• Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; McHugh, Charles W. 2014. Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States.
• Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal; Preisler, Haiganoush; Calkin, Dave. 2014. Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA.
• Ager, Alan A.; Day, Michelle A.; McHugh, Charles W.; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E. 2014. Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.
• Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA.
• Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Gebert, Krista M.; Hand, Michael S. 2013. A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning.
• Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management.
• Houtman, Rachel M.; Montgomery, Claire A.; Gagnon, Aaron R.; Calkin, David E.; Dietterich, Thomas G.; McGregor, Sean; Crowley, Mark. 2013. Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs.
• Holmes, Thomas P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E. 2013. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.
• Hyde, Kevin; Dickinson, Matthew B.; Bohrer, Gil; Calkin, David; Evers, Louisa; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Nicolet, Tessa; Ryan, Kevin; Tague, Christina. 2013. Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs.
• Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Hand, Michael S.; Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron J.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.
• Chung, Woodam; Venn, Tyron J.; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, Greg; Han, Han-Sup; Calkin, Dave E. 2012. Assessing the potential for log sort yards to improve financial viability of forest restoration treatments.
• Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew; Thompson, Matthew P. 2012. Estimating US federal wildland fire managers' preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives.
• Graham, Russell; Finney, Mark; McHugh, Chuck; Cohen, Jack; Calkin, Dave; Stratton, Rick; Bradshaw, Larry; Nikolov, Ned. 2012. Fourmile Canyon Fire Findings.
• Wibbenmeyer, Matthew; Hand, Michael; Calkin, David. 2012. Preliminary results from a survey of U.S. Forest Service wildfire managers' attitudes toward aviation personnel exposure and risk.
• Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Marcille, Kate. 2012. Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure.
• Malcolm, Karl; Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, Dave; Finney, Mark; Ager, Alan. 2012. Science You Can Use (SYCU): Wildfire triage - Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, Dave E.; Vaillant, Nicole M. 2012. The science and opportunity of wildfire risk assessment (Chapter 6).
• Venn, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2011. Accommodating non-market values in evaluation of wildfire management in the United States: Challenges and opportunities.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Ager, Alan A. 2011. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment.
• Noonan-Wright, Erin; Opperman, Tonja S.; Finney, Mark A.; Zimmerman, Tom; Seli, Robert C.; Elenz, Lisa M.; Calkin, David E.; Fiedler, John R. 2011. Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System.
• Han, Han-Sup; Bilek, E. M. (Ted); Dramm, John (Rusty); Loeffler, Dan; Calkin, Dave. 2011. Financial feasibility of a log sort yard handling small-diameter logs: A preliminary study.
• Calkin, Dave; Phipps, John; Holmes, Tom; Rieck, Jon; Thompson, Matt. 2011. The Exposure Index: Developing firefighter safety performance measures.
• Lai, Katherine J.; Gomes, Carla P.; Schwartz, Michael K.; McKelvey, Kevin S.; Calkin, David E.; Montgomery, Claire A. 2011. The Steiner Multigraph Problem: Wildlife corridor design for multiple species.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E. 2011. Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review.
• Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P.; Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark. 2010. Barriers to implementation of risk management for federal wildland fire management agencies in the United States.
• Jones, Greg; Loeffler, Dan; Calkin, David; Chung, Woodam. 2010. Forest treatment residues for thermal energy compared with disposal by onsite burning: Emissions and energy return.
• Venn, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2009. Challenges of socio-economically evaluating wildfire management on non-industrial private and public forestland in the western United States.
• Silverstein, Robin; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, J. Greg; Calkin, Dave; Zuuring, Hans; Twer, Martin. 2009. Chip and truck: Comparing the cost of using trees to heat buildings.
• Calkin, David; Gebert, Krista. 2009. Economics of wildland fire management.
• Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, Dave E.; Gebert, Krista M.; Venn, Tyron J.; Silverstein, Robin P. 2008. Factors influencing large wildland fire suppression expenditures.
• Silverstein, Robin P.; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, J. Greg; Calkin, Dave E.; Zuuring, Hans R.; Twer, Martin. 2006. Biomass utilization modeling on the Bitterroot National Forest.
• Ritter, Sharon; Canton-Thompson, Janie; Jones, Greg; McCaughey, Ward; Calkin, Dave; Harrington, Mick; Kolb, Peter; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Jensen, Joe; Knotek, Katie; Thompson, Brooke. 2005. ECO-Report - Scale matters - some thoughts on landscape sustainability.
• Calkin, David ; Hyde, Kevin . 2004. Break-even point: Suppression-cost analyses in Montana weigh resource values as determined by tax records and available GIS data.

Research Highlights

Highlight	Title	Year
RMRS-2011-03	Assessing wildfire risk to communities and natural and cultural resources Station scientists affiliated with the National Fire Decision Support Center are working closely with the Agency's Western and Eastern Threat Ce ...	2011
RMRS-2019-58	Snag Hazard to Firefighters Persists Long After the Smoke Has Cleared A new tool developed through collaboration between USDA Forest Service and Oregon State University researchers tracks treefall through time and ...	2019