Current Research

My research broadly focuses on economic aspects of wildland fire and fuels management with specific research interests including: 1) wildland fire risk assessment, 2) identification of values-at-risk to wildland fire, 3) decision support system development, 4) performance measurement of wildland fire suppression, 5) modeling and forecasting of wildfire suppression costs, and 6) social and managerial tradeoffs among resources affected by fire management

Research Interests

My research interest are in exploring opportunities where economic tools can be brought to bear to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of wiland fire management programs and incident decision making.

Past Research

Currently fire mangement represents over 50 percent of the USFS budget and significantly impacts the Agency's ability to meet its core goal of caring for the land and the people. A number of challenges restrict our ability to assure that fire management investments are economically justified. Risk assessment tools present opportunities to consistently measure the current effectiveness of fire management activities and economic analysis can inform appropriate investment structures to protect both developed and highly valued natural resources.

Why This Research is Important

1. Developed the Rapid Assessment of Values At Risk (RAVAR) model, the economic impact module of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System WFDSS. 2. Authored and co-authored several papers reviewing factors influencing fire and fuels mangement costs. 3. Primary Investigator of a study that resulted in the development of valuation tools for Burned Area Emergency Response teams. 4. Investigated issues associated with the cost and efficiency of biomass utilization and associated carbon impacts.

Education

• University of Virginia, B.S. Applied Mathematics 1988
• University of Montana, M.S. Natural Resource Conservation 1994
• Oregon State University, Ph.D. Economics 2000

Featured Publications & Products

• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2011. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values.
• Calkin, David E.; Rieck, Jon D.; Hyde, Kevin D.; Kaiden, Jeffrey D. 2011. Built structure identification in wildland fire decision support.
• Calkin, David E.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie. 2010. Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation.
• Stetler, Kyle M.; Venn, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2010. The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA.
• Jones, Greg; Loeffler, Dan; Calkin, David; Chung, Woodam. 2010. Forest treatment residues for thermal energy compared with disposal by onsite burning: Emissions and energy return.

Publications

• Wunder, Sven ; Calkin, Dave E.; Charlton, Val ; Feder, Sarah ; de Arano, Inazio Martínez; Moore, Peter ; Silva, Francisco Rodríguez; Tacconi, Luca ; Vega-García, Cristina . 2021. Resilient landscapes to prevent catastrophic forest fires: Socioeconomic insights towards a new paradigm.
• Wei, Yu ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Belval, Erin ; Gannon, Benjamin ; Calkin, David E.; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2020. Comparing contingency fire containment strategies using simulated random scenarios.
• Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco ; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Martinez, Juan Ramon Molina; Calkin, David E. 2020. Modelling suppression difficulty: Current and future applications.
• Cardil, Adrian ; de-Miguel, Sergio ; Silva, Carlos A.; Reich, Peter B.; Calkin, David ; Brancalion, Pedro H. S.; Vibrans, Alexander C.; Gamarra, Javier G. P.; Zhou, M. ; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Hui, Cang ; Crowther, Thomas W.; Herault, Bruno ; Piotto, Daniel ; Salas-Eljatib, Christian ; Broadbent, Eben North; Zambrano, Angelica M. Almeyda; Picard, Nicolas ; Aragao, Luiz E. O. C.; Bastin, Jean-Francois ; Routh, Devin ; van den Hoogen, Johan ; Peri, Pablo L.; Liang, Jingjing . 2020. Recent deforestation drove the spike in Amazonian forests.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Abrams, Jesse ; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Johnston, James D.; Stratton, Rick ; Gilbertson-Day, Julie . 2020. Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality.
• Calkin, David ; Short, Karen ; Traci, Meg . 2019. California wildfires Chapter 7.
• O’Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E. 2019. Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona).
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Wei, Yu ; Calkin, David E.; O'Connor, Christopher D.; Dunn, Christopher ; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Hogland, John S. 2019. Risk management and analytics in wildfire response.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; O’Connor, Christopher D.; Reilly, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2019. Spatial and temporal assessment of responder exposure to snag hazards in post-fire environments.
• Calkin, David ; Price, Owen ; Salis, Michele . 2019. WUI risk assessment at the landscape level.
• Riley, Karin L.; Williams, A. Park; Urbanski, Shawn P.; Calkin, David E.; Short, Karen C.; O’Connor, Christopher D. 2019. Will landscape fire increase in the future A systems approach to climate, fire, fuel, and human drivers.
• Belval, Erin J.; Calkin, David E.; Wei, Yu ; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Masarie, Alex . 2018. Examining dispatching practices for Interagency Hotshot Crews to reduce seasonal travel distance and manage fatigue.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Phipps, John . 2018. Rethinking the wildland fire management system.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Lauer, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Rieck, Jon D.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Hand, Michael S. 2018. Wildfire response performance measurement: Current and future directions.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2017. A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Silva, Francisco Rodriguez y; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management.
• O'Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management.
• Katuwal, Hari; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources.
• Belval, Erin J.; Wei, Yu; Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tipton, John R. 2017. Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Systems thinking and wildland fire management.
• Hand, Michael; Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources.
• Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. Towards enhanced risk management: Planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response.
• Wei, Yu; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S. 2016. A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado.
• Prestemon, Jeff; Kruger, Linda; Abt, Karen L.; Bowker, Michael; Brandeis, Consuelo; Calkin, Dave; Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Ham, Charlotte; Holmes, Thomas P.; Kline, Jeffrey; Warziniack, Travis. 2016. Economics and societal considerations of drought.
• Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave. 2016. Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2016. Fighting fire in the heat of the day: An analysis of operational and environmental conditions of use for large airtankers in United States fire suppression.
• Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave E.; Jolly, Matt. 2016. Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States.
• Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, Dave; Hand, Michael S. 2016. Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: A stochastic frontier analysis.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Freeborn, Patrick; Rieck, Jon D.; Calkin, Dave; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Hand, Michael S. 2016. Quantifying the influence of previously burned areas on suppression effectiveness and avoided exposure: A case study of the Las Conchas Fire.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Calkin, Dave. 2016. Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire.
• Riley, Karin; Stonesifer, Crystal; Calkin, Dave; Preisler, Haiganoush. 2015. Assessing predictive services' 7-day fire potential outlook.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave; McHugh, Charles W. 2015. Characterizing large airtanker use in United States fire management.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Scott, Joe H.; Langowski, Paul; Bowne, Elise; Calkin, David E. 2015. Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S.; Browne, Mark J.; Halek, Martin; Short, Karen C.; Grenfell, Isaac C. 2015. Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling.
• Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A. 2015. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management.
• Calkin, David E.; Mentis, Mike. 2015. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty.
• Hand, Michael S.; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management.
• Thompson, Matthew; Dunn, Christopher; Calkin, Dave. 2015. Wildfires: Systemic changes required.
• O'Donnell, Derek T.; Venna, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2014. Are wildfire management resources in the United States efficiently allocated to protect resources at risk A case study from Montana.
• Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Kaiden, Jeffrey D. 2014. Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions.
• Hand, Michael S.; Gebert, Krista M.; Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Zhou, Mo. 2014. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models.
• Calkin, David E.; Cohen, Jack D.; Finney, Mark A.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface.
• Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; McHugh, Charles W. 2014. Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States.
• Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal; Preisler, Haiganoush; Calkin, Dave. 2014. Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA.
• Ager, Alan A.; Day, Michelle A.; McHugh, Charles W.; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E. 2014. Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.
• Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA.
• Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Gebert, Krista M.; Hand, Michael S. 2013. A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning.
• Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management.
• Houtman, Rachel M.; Montgomery, Claire A.; Gagnon, Aaron R.; Calkin, David E.; Dietterich, Thomas G.; McGregor, Sean; Crowley, Mark. 2013. Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs.
• Holmes, Thomas P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E. 2013. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.
• Hyde, Kevin; Dickinson, Matthew B.; Bohrer, Gil; Calkin, David; Evers, Louisa; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Nicolet, Tessa; Ryan, Kevin; Tague, Christina. 2013. Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs.
• Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Hand, Michael S.; Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron J.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.
• Chung, Woodam; Venn, Tyron J.; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, Greg; Han, Han-Sup; Calkin, Dave E. 2012. Assessing the potential for log sort yards to improve financial viability of forest restoration treatments.
• Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew; Thompson, Matthew P. 2012. Estimating US federal wildland fire managers' preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives.
• Graham, Russell; Finney, Mark; McHugh, Chuck; Cohen, Jack; Calkin, Dave; Stratton, Rick; Bradshaw, Larry; Nikolov, Ned. 2012. Fourmile Canyon Fire Findings.
• Wibbenmeyer, Matthew; Hand, Michael; Calkin, David. 2012. Preliminary results from a survey of U.S. Forest Service wildfire managers' attitudes toward aviation personnel exposure and risk.
• Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Marcille, Kate. 2012. Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, Dave E.; Vaillant, Nicole M. 2012. The science and opportunity of wildfire risk assessment (Chapter 6).
• Malcolm, Karl; Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, Dave; Finney, Mark; Ager, Alan. 2012. Wildfire triage: Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values.
• Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A.; Hyde, Kevin D. 2011. A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking.
• Venn, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2011. Accommodating non-market values in evaluation of wildfire management in the United States: Challenges and opportunities.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Ager, Alan A. 2011. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment.
• Noonan-Wright, Erin; Opperman, Tonja S.; Finney, Mark A.; Zimmerman, Tom; Seli, Robert C.; Elenz, Lisa M.; Calkin, David E.; Fiedler, John R. 2011. Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System.
• Han, Han-Sup; Bilek, E. M. (Ted); Dramm, John (Rusty); Loeffler, Dan; Calkin, Dave. 2011. Financial feasibility of a log sort yard handling small-diameter logs: A preliminary study.
• Calkin, David C.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2011. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making.
• Calkin, Dave; Phipps, John; Holmes, Tom; Rieck, Jon; Thompson, Matt. 2011. The Exposure Index: Developing firefighter safety performance measures.
• Lai, Katherine J.; Gomes, Carla P.; Schwartz, Michael K.; McKelvey, Kevin S.; Calkin, David E.; Montgomery, Claire A. 2011. The Steiner Multigraph Problem: Wildlife corridor design for multiple species.
• Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E. 2011. Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review.
• Calkin, Dave; Thompson, Matthew P.; Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark. 2010. Barriers to implementation of risk management for federal wildland fire management agencies in the United States.
• Venn, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2009. Challenges of socio-economically evaluating wildfire management on non-industrial private and public forestland in the western United States.
• Silverstein, Robin; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, J. Greg; Calkin, Dave; Zuuring, Hans; Twer, Martin. 2009. Chip and truck: Comparing the cost of using trees to heat buildings.
• Calkin, David; Gebert, Krista. 2009. Economics of wildland fire management.
• Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, Dave E.; Gebert, Krista M.; Venn, Tyron J.; Silverstein, Robin P. 2008. Factors influencing large wildland fire suppression expenditures.
• Silverstein, Robin P.; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, J. Greg; Calkin, Dave E.; Zuuring, Hans R.; Twer, Martin. 2006. Biomass utilization modeling on the Bitterroot National Forest.
• Ritter, Sharon; Canton-Thompson, Janie; Jones, Greg; McCaughey, Ward; Calkin, Dave; Harrington, Mick; Kolb, Peter; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Jensen, Joe; Knotek, Katie; Thompson, Brooke. 2005. ECO-Report - Scale matters - some thoughts on landscape sustainability.
• Calkin, David ; Hyde, Kevin . 2004. Break-even point: Suppression-cost analyses in Montana weigh resource values as determined by tax records and available GIS data.

Research Highlights

Highlight	Title	Year
RMRS-2011-03	Assessing wildfire risk to communities and natural and cultural resources Station scientists affiliated with the National Fire Decision Support Center are working closely with the Agency's Western and Eastern Threat Ce ...	2011
RMRS-2019-58	Snag Hazard to Firefighters Persists Long After the Smoke Has Cleared A new tool developed through collaboration between USDA Forest Service and Oregon State University researchers tracks treefall through time and ...	2019