The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) threatens the stability and sustainability of maples, willows, and 13 other genera of trees in North America and Europe. In the United States, the ALB established itself in five locations; three are urban, with two already eradicated. Unfortunately, the two remaining infestations (Massachusetts and Ohio) are well established in forested areas which grade from urban to rural, placing the beetle in an excellent position to threaten large tracts of eastern forests. Eradication programs depend on surveying individual trees in the regulated areas. To date, about 3 million trees have been surveyed, and 50,000 infested trees have been identified and removed from regulated areas totaling more than 300 square miles, representing a substantial and expensive undertaking. Working with data collected by the USDA Animal Plant Health Inspection Service during the eradication process, Forest Service researchers and their APHIS collaborators have identified patterns and probabilities of spread among trees in the infested areas and have developed tools to estimate the probability of beetle presence for each hectare (2.47 acres) within managed areas. This information is provided to land managers to help optimize efforts to eradicate ALB by pointing to potential infestation hot spots.