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balsam fir (Abies balsamea)

Model Reliability: High



Current Forest Inventory and Analysis under Current Conditions
Current Forest Inventory and Analysis under Current Conditions
(DISTRIB-II + SHIFT)
HQCL Legend Help
Importance Value
GCM SCENARIO % Area Occ Ave IV Sum IV Future/Current IV
Actual10.312.537811N/A
RFimp12.210.4374190.99
CCSM4510.56185270.5
CCSM8510.86189960.51
GFDL4510.16.1181450.48
GFDL8510.56184160.49
HAD4510.65.9184040.49
HAD8510.85.7179670.48
GCM45115.7183960.49
GCM8511.35.5184730.49

Regional Summary Tree Tables

 Cautions  Model Info  FAQ

 Interpretation Guide


Balsam fir is a narrow range, densely populated, and of high importance where it occurs. It has a reliable model that consistently showed no real change in overall habitat area but a substantial reduction in overall suitable habitat. Even though precipitation increases slightly, the 3.8-6.4C increase in heat by 2100 may be critical. It is also poorly adapted (Adapt=2.7) and is very susceptible to insects, fire, and drought, all boding poorly for this species in the long run. The fact that it is abundant in its range (7.3% of eastern US) provides a fair capability to cope with the changing climate. SHIFT outputs are not significant for this species as most of the habitat is occupied except for some infill and migration West in Minnesota.



Family:  Pinaceae

Guild: persistent, slow growing understory tolerant

Functional Lifeform: small to medium-size evergreentree

2.7 -3.00
-0.35 Model Reliability High

MODFACs
What traits will impact balsam fir's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:

 Primary Positive Traits

Shade tolerance

 Primary Negative Traits

Insect pests Fire topkill Drought


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