USDA Forest Service Logo RWU NE-4153, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Delaware, Ohio, USA
Delaware, OH Home  Project Home  Biotrends Main  Biotrends Entire Presentation
Last updated: January 23, 2002Contact: Anantha Prasad

Biological Trends in the United States: an on-line annotated review

(with emphasis on the Midwestern U.S.)

Introduction
An introduction to the biological trends in the US, with emphasis on the Midwest
Human Population
Trends in human population, sprawl, and recreation
Land Use
Trends in land use and fragmentation
Forests
Trends in forest cover, removals vs. growth, wildfire, composition
Water/Wetlands
Trends in water use and wetlands
Invasive Species
Distribution of invasives and impacts
Biodiversity/T&E Species/Species Abundance
Distribution of threatened and endangered species and trends in species abundance
Environmental Contaminants
Trends in environmental contaminants
Climate Change
Past and potential future climate trends, with potential forest impacts
Conclusions
Wrap up


Introduction:
(Click image to enlarge)
Trends1.JPG
Trends1.JPG
50.72 KB
Talk presented by Louis Iverson at the Midwest Fish and Wildlife annual meeting, Dec. 10, 2001. Des Moines, Iowa.

Intention: to present a compilation of research and monitoring on the status and trends of biological resources of the US, with emphasis on the Midwest.

Suggested citation: Iverson, L.R. 2002. Biological trends in the United States: an annotated on-line review. http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/biotrends/biotrends.html
Trends2.JPG
Trends2.JPG
55.91 KB
These are the topics considered in the presentation.

Trends3.JPG
Trends3.JPG
81.07 KB
Most of the biological resource issues are related to each other as shown in Vitousek's diagram.

Human population (numbers, resources used) is main driver via industry, agriculture, and urbanization.

Vitousek PM. 1994. Beyond global warming ecology and global change. Ecology 75:1861-1902.

Human Population:
Trends4.JPG
Trends4.JPG
35.27 KB
Topics considered with human population trends.

Trends5.JPG
Trends5.JPG
161.84 KB
High density counties shown in blue colors, low density in light colors.

High population along Eastern seaboard, Lake Michigan.

Low population in the prairie states.

http://www.census.gov/
Trends6.JPG
Trends6.JPG
181.00 KB
Changing populations between 1990 and 2000 show continual decline in prairie states and southern Appalachians.

Some counties gained over 50% in 10 years (including the one Iverson lives in in Ohio).

http://www.census.gov/
Trends7.JPG
Trends7.JPG
177.35 KB
The population trends of the past decade are accentuated with the percentage change in children.

The 'brown' counties will continually lose population if they don't keep the children.

http://www.census.gov/
Trends8.JPG
Trends8.JPG
72.40 KB
Urban sprawl shows dramatic increases in sprawl especially in the East.

Hydrologic regions in red had at least 50,000 acres converted to 'developed' between 1992 and 1997.

Trends9.JPG
Trends9.JPG
97.22 KB
Recreation use has changed dramatically between 1983 and 1995.

Table shows number of people (in millions) that were active in particular recreation at least 1 day in a year.

Bird watching heads list with 155% increase, followed by 94% increase in hiking.

Recreation types showing a decrease are fishing (-4%), sailing (-9%), horseback riding (-10%), and hunting (-12%).

These trends say something to how land managers should be managing their lands.

Cordell, K. 1999. Ourdoor recreation in American life a national assessment of demand and supply trends. Sagamore Publishing, Champaign, Il. 449 pp.

Turner MG, Carpenter SR, Gustafson EJ, Naiman RJ, Pearson SM. 1998. Land Use. Pages 37-61 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Land Use:
Trends10.JPG
Trends10.JPG
27.69 KB
Topics related to land use trends.

Trends11.JPG
Trends11.JPG
104.68 KB
The pattern of development (at least 2 people per square mile) was confined to the East coast through 1770, then to the Ohio River valley through 1810.

By 1850, most of the forest lands east of the Mississippi were settled, and by 1890, the prairies too.

Some prairie counties now have below 2 people per square mile, with continuing population loss.

Turner MG, Carpenter SR, Gustafson EJ, Naiman RJ, Pearson SM. 1998. Land Use. Pages 37-61 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Trends12.JPG
Trends12.JPG
60.06 KB
The pattern of settlement is also apparent in the changes in land cover since 1840.

Forests were converted to farmland first ("if it can't grow a tree, it probably can't grow crops" was common early impression).

Grasslands very rapidly converted once the moldboard plow was perfected.

Urbanization has been major conversion in recent decades.

Turner MG, Carpenter SR, Gustafson EJ, Naiman RJ, Pearson SM. 1998. Land Use. Pages 37-61 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.

trends13.JPG
trends13.JPG
51.03 KB
Iowa is 'winner' with respect to the percentage of its natural lands converted to other uses - only 8% is in Kuchler's potential vegetation type.

Illinois next with 11%, Ohio has 25%.

Major conversion occurred in last half of 19th century in the Midwest.

Klopatek JM, Olson RJ, Emerson CJ, Jones JL. 1979. Land-use conflicts with natural vegetation in the United States. Environmental Conservation 6:191-200.
trends14.JPG
trends14.JPG
106.18 KB
These are some principles that tend to hold when humans convert landscapes.

1. access is critical.

2. habitats are resilient when not overly disturbed.

trends15.JPG
trends15.JPG
114.06 KB
3. native habitat is fragmented and lost during conversion.

4. exotics often invade during conversion.

5. the matrix around habitat in question often is critical to amount of overall impact.

August P, Iverson LR, Nugranad J. submitted. Human conversion of terrestrial landscapes. in Gutzwiller K, editor. Concepts and applications of landscape ecology in biological conservation. Springer-Verlag, New York.
trends16.JPG
trends16.JPG
82.74 KB
Fragmentation has been studied in many ways. Kurt Riitters and colleagues have done a lot of work assessing global and U.S. fragmentation. I encourage you to go to his site to check out their work. http://www.srs.fs.fed.us/4803/landscapes/



We have done some work in Ohio, assessing forest fragmentation in each 10 x 10 km block across the state.

This shows percent forest is highest in southeast, lowest in northwest.

Iverson, L.R. and A. Prasad. 2001. Assessment of fragmentation in Ohio. unpublished document
trends17.JPG
trends17.JPG
75.92 KB
If you remove the outside 100 m from each forest patch, you get 'core' area - which has been linked to e.g. forest interior birds.

Much less of the state qualifies as having a high percentage of its forest as core.

trends18.JPG
trends18.JPG
74.69 KB
Forest classification was done with Landsat TM (30 m data) in 1985 and 1994, with the percent change shown here.

Keep in mind that there was classification error in each, compounded when overlaying two dates.

Shows general increase in forest along east side, and little change elsewhere.

trends19.JPG
trends19.JPG
81.92 KB
Changes in core area of forest show significant increases in some southern and southeastern grids.

Some of this could be regrowth of harvested lands (going from shrub type to forest type in the classification).

Some areas around Cleveland show losses of core area.

Forests:
trends20.JPG
trends20.JPG
39.97 KB
Topics to cover, in addition to fragmentation above, related to forest trends.

Since I work for the US Forest Service, and am a forest ecologist, more is given on this topic.

trends21.JPG
trends21.JPG
90.31 KB
But most animal species also are dependent in some way of forests as well.

This gives the numbers, with 90% of bird, amphibian, and fish species and 80% of mammal and reptile species being found on forest land.

trends22.JPG
trends22.JPG
55.03 KB
Old growth forests were, for the most part, harvested by 1920, especially in the East.

Pacific Northwest forests and UP Michigan forests cut heavily after 1920 until quite recently.

Meyer WB. 1995. Past and present land use and land cover in the USA. Consequences. Spring 1995:25-33.
trends23.JPG
trends23.JPG
107.62 KB
The forest changes (not virgin forests) for Illinois are shown, going from 13.8 million acres in 1820 down to 3.02 million in 1924, and then back up to 4.33 million acres in 1998.

Iverson LR. 1991. Forest resources of Illinois what do we have and what are they doing for us? Pages 361-374 in Symposium Proceedings Our Living Heritage. Illinois Natural History Survey Bulletin 34, Champaign, IL.
trends24.JPG
trends24.JPG
62.95 KB
History does indeed repeat itself Deforestation rates in tropics are following same pattern as it did about a century earlier in Illinois

We have to be careful how we deal with tropical countries undergoing deforestation because we did it first!

Iverson, L.R., G.L. Rolfe, T.J. Jacob, A.S. Hodgins, and M.R. Jeffords. 1991. Forests of Illinois. Illinois Council on Forestry Development, Urbana, and Illinois Natural History Survey, Champaign. 24 pp.
trends25.JPG
trends25.JPG
54.31 KB
US Forest Service Forest Inventory data shows the amount of forestland in each state.

Prairie states aptly named; highest forest percentages in New England and West Virginia.

Prasad, A. and L.R. Iverson. Unpublished map produced from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data.
trends26.JPG
trends26.JPG
146.13 KB
A map showing the distribution of forest types according to classified AVHRR data.

Lots of aspen-birch in Lake States, mostly oak-hickory elsewhere.

But these too are changing and could dramatically change in future.

Zhu Z, Evans DL. 1994. U.S. forest types and predicted percent forest cover from AVHRR data. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 60:525-531.
trends27.JPG
trends27.JPG
92.67 KB
Total area of forest land in the US has been stable since early part of 20th century.

Distribution of forest land has been shifting, however.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends28.JPG
trends28.JPG
89.25 KB
The US demand and consumption of timber products has steadily increased except for 1930s and early 1980s (generally follows economy).

Fuelwood consumption was initially high, then decreased during 1960s and early 1970s until the oil embargo, and has increased again since.

Big rise in pulp products throughout, and more recently with plywood and chip products.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends29.JPG
trends29.JPG
57.57 KB
Volume per acre has increased each decade since 1953 in the north and south (both east); not much change in West.

Secondary forests in East are growing more rapidly than being cut.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends30.JPG
trends30.JPG
69.18 KB
Growth-removal ratios give indication of sustainability of the timber resource: a ratio of 1 means the same amount is growing as is being harvested.

Hardwoods generally have higher ratios than softwoods.

Overall, ratios have been in 1.2 to 1.55 range, and now, nearly 50% more wood is grown than is being removed.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends31.JPG
trends31.JPG
73.79 KB
The Rocky Mt. region now has a ratio over 4.5 The south ratio has been declining (heavier harvest partially because of shutdown in Pacific Northwest).

Some project the ratio in the South to go below 1.0 in next couple of decades.

The North is largely secondary growth and has been growing nearly twice that of harvest since the 1950s.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends32.JPG
trends32.JPG
67.49 KB
Considered by ownership, the ratio shows a dramatic recent spike, to over 5.0 in national forest lands.

Forest industry lands generally have had ratios below 1.0.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends33.JPG
trends33.JPG
75.55 KB
Trends in wild forest fires show that, although 2000 was the major fire year since the 1950s, there were many more acres burned per year in years preceding Smoky Bear.

50 years of effective suppression has put us in difficult situation now.

That, combined with many more humans living in the wildland interface, causes problems.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends34.JPG
trends34.JPG
53.38 KB
Along with the (mostly Western) issue of forest fire danger due to excessive fuel buildup, is the issue of maple takeover in the East.

It too is at least partially the result of 50 years of fire suppression.

Trends in Ohio wood volume 1968-1991 show large increases in maples, yellow poplar, and black cherry, with concommitant reductions in oak and hickory.

Iverson LR, Dale ME, Scott CT, Prasad A. 1997. A GIS-derived integrated moisture index to predict forest composition and productivity in Ohio forests. Landscape Ecology 12:331-348.
trends35.JPG
trends35.JPG
61.56 KB
Another way to show this is the 'oak bottleneck' diagram, where there are plenty of oaks in the seedling size class as well as the canopy trees, but very few in the sapling size class.

As these maple saplings grow and mature, they will replace the oak canopy trees.

Regeneration is not presently successful, so management options are needed to help regenerate oaks.

Sutherland E., Sutherland S., Hutchinson T., Yaussy D. Oak bottleneck. Unpublished work of USDA Forest Service Project 4153 in Delaware, Ohio.
trends36.JPG
trends36.JPG
120.08 KB
We have been studying the role of prescribed fire in the oak-dominated communities of southern Ohio for 7 years.

Though the fires do a good job of topkilling the maple saplings, we are finding that fire alone does not sufficiently open the canopy for oak growth into the canopy.

http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/4153/ffs/Ohio_Hills_Study_Site.htm
trends37.JPG
trends37.JPG
136.31 KB
Therefore, in 2001, we began adding thinning to fire to see if we can achieve better oak regeneration.

Stay tuned for results.

http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/4153/ffs/Ohio_Hills_Study_Site.htm
Water/Wetlands:
trends38.JPG
trends38.JPG
31.52 KB
Trends in water use and wetlands - another area of phenomenal changes in this country.
trends39.JPG
trends39.JPG
88.44 KB
There was a linear relation between the U.S. human population and water use from 1950 to 1980, then a leveling off of water use.

Still, water quantity issues will continue to grow as does the population, especially in the West.

Herrmann R, Stottlemyer R, Scherbarth L. 1998. Water Use. Pages 63-87 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends40.JPG
trends40.JPG
46.13 KB
Wetlands have been drained for over 200 years, and this shows the change in percent wetland over that time period.

Dahl, T.E. 1990. Wetlands losses in the United States, 1780's to 1980's. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. 13 pp.

Turner MG, Carpenter SR, Gustafson EJ, Naiman RJ, Pearson SM. 1998. Land Use. Pages 37-61 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends41.JPG
trends41.JPG
97.21 KB
The states in purple have lost at least 50% of their wetlands since 1780. 90% in Ohio, second only to CA with 91%.

Dahl, T.E. and C.E. Johnson. 1991. Status and trends of wetlands in the conterminous United States, mid-1970's to mid-1980's. U.S. Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C.

Herrmann R, Stottlemyer R, Scherbarth L. 1998. Water Use. Pages 63-87 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.

trends42.JPG
trends42.JPG
91.04 KB
Most of the wetland loss has been to drainage for agriculture. Each dot on this map corresponds to 20,000 acres of artificially drained agriculture area.

Dahl, T.E. 1990. Wetlands losses in the United States, 1780's to 1980's. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. 13 pp.
trends43.JPG
trends43.JPG
97.11 KB
For every hour over a 200 year period, the lower 48 lost over 60 acres of wetlands per hour! The heaviest time of drainage was during the 1950-1975 period, when nearly a half a million acres were drained per year.

Conversion rates have slowed since 1975, due to regulations and less 'suitability' of remaining sites.

Current 'no net loss' policy not working well yet because the mitigation wetlands often do not have functionality of native wetlands.

Most wetlands now are being lost to development rather than agriculture.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
Species Invasions:
trends44.JPG
trends44.JPG
25.17 KB
Exotic invasions also a growing issue in this country.

trends45.JPG
trends45.JPG
68.63 KB
An estimated 6300 exotic species currently reside in this country (though it is a guess on the insects).

For vertebrates and especially fishes, many of the exotics are native to some parts of the country, but have invaded other territory where they are not native.

Williams JD Meffe GK. 1998. Nonindigenous species. Pages 117-129 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends46.JPG
trends46.JPG
106.83 KB
This map shows the number of exotic plants recorded in each state.

Highest exotics in CA, NY, and FL - states with a large amount of overseas traffic.

Williams JD Meffe GK. 1998. Nonindigenous species. Pages 117-129 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends47.JPG
trends47.JPG
103.16 KB
Here's the pattern for number of exotic fish recorded by state.

Generally higher numbers near the coasts.

Williams JD Meffe GK. 1998. Nonindigenous species. Pages 117-129 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends48.JPG
trends48.JPG
100.66 KB
The proportion of bird numbers that are exotic breeding birds is shown here.

The Midwest Corn Belt shows up clearly with up to 44% of the birds being exotic (e.g., starlings and English sparrows).

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

Flather, C.H., S.J. Brady, and M.S. Knowles. 1999. Wildlife resource trends in the United States A technical document supporting the 2000 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-33. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Fort Collins, CO. 79 pp.

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends49.JPG
trends49.JPG
85.41 KB
Many exotics were intentionally introduced - and for the most part, these are equally as damaging as those unintentially introduced.

60% of the terrestrial vertebrates, 40% of fishes, and 40-50% of mollusks cause harm, especially to other organisms.

Williams JD Meffe GK. 1998. Nonindigenous species. Pages 117-129 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends50.JPG
trends50.JPG
73.89 KB
The impacts of exotic species can be positive (as in the case of the honey bee for example), negative, neutral (or unknown), or both beneficial and harmful.

For example, a third of exotic insects are beneficial, a third harmful, and and third neutral or unknown.

A quarter of exotic terrestrial vertebrates are both beneficial and harmful, depending on spatial and temporal conditions.

Seldom will we see a plant pathogen which is anything but harmful, unless it is only harmful to exotic plants. There are a few of those.

Williams JD Meffe GK. 1998. Nonindigenous species. Pages 117-129 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Biodiversity/Threatened and Endangered Species/Species Abundance:
trends51.JPG
trends51.JPG
52.26 KB
Assessments of species richness and abundance show a number of trends as well.

trends52.JPG
trends52.JPG
118.10 KB
The number of tree species per 20 x 20 km cell is shown here, according to forest inventory data of the USDA Forest Service.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].
www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends53.JPG
trends53.JPG
104.81 KB
A number of native species have been either extirpated from the state, or are considered extinct.

This table shows those estimates for plants - 4.7% of native species in OH and 5.6% in ME have been lost.

Turner MG, Carpenter SR, Gustafson EJ, Naiman RJ, Pearson SM. 1998. Land Use. Pages 37-61 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends54.JPG
trends54.JPG
72.07 KB
The same information for mammals, birds, and fish are shown here.

Up to 20% of mammals, 17% of birds, and 15% of fish are considered extinct or extirpated from various states in the Midwest.

Turner MG, Carpenter SR, Gustafson EJ, Naiman RJ, Pearson SM. 1998. Land Use. Pages 37-61 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends55.JPG
trends55.JPG
64.86 KB
Many believe we are in the midst of another mass extinction - the last was 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs died out.

Up to 20% of vertebrates species could be lost this century.

The larger animals are most vulnerable (either higher on food chain or requiring large habitats).

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.

trends56.JPG
trends56.JPG
101.19 KB
There are 452 endangered and 179 threatened species in the contiguous U.S.

Of these, at least half are associated with aquatic or riparian habitats.

Herrmann R, Stottlemyer R, Scherbarth L. 1998. Water Use. Pages 63-87 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends57.JPG
trends57.JPG
95.90 KB
The density distribution of T&E animals is shown here.

Highest concentrations tend to be near coasts and Mississippi River valley.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

Hof, J., C. Flather, T. Baltic, and S. Davies. 1999. National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators a supporting technical document for the1999 RPA assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-442. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Portland, OR. 57 pp.

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends58.JPG
trends58.JPG
101.94 KB
The same map for T&E plants. Highest concentrations along coasts, in southeastern U.S., and nothern Arizona and Utah.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

Hof, J., C. Flather, T. Baltic, and S. Davies. 1999. National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators a supporting technical document for the1999 RPA assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-442. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Portland, OR. 57 pp.

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends59.JPG
trends59.JPG
67.51 KB
Some overall trends in wildlife include big increases in turkey, proghorn, deer, and Canada goose.

Decreases in rangeland species like northern bobwhite, hare, and western quail.

http://www.fs.fed.us/pl/rpa

USDA Forest Service. 2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range lands. FS-687. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 78 pp.
trends60.JPG
trends60.JPG
58.37 KB
The trends in Ohio deer show that the population has increased nearly exponentially from near zero in the 1940s.

Iverson AL, Iverson LR. 1999. Spatial and temporal trends of deer harvest and deer-vehicle accidents in Ohio. The Ohio Journal of Science 99(4):84-94.
trends61.JPG
trends61.JPG
116.24 KB
hen analyzed using county data, the deer harvest was positively related to amount of forest in that county, and negatively related to amount of crop land.

Road-vehicle accidents were related to urban land and road lengths in the county.

Iverson AL, Iverson LR. 1999. Spatial and temporal trends of deer harvest and deer-vehicle accidents in Ohio. The Ohio Journal of Science 99(4):84-94.
trends62.JPG
trends62.JPG
69.71 KB
The temporal trend in deer harvest (1985-1995) and roadkill (1988-1995) is steeply up for Delaware County, and the pattern is typical for many Ohio counties.

If this trend continues, it would be better not to drive at dusk in October and November, because you have a very high chance of a deer collision!

Iverson AL, Iverson LR. 1999. Spatial and temporal trends of deer harvest and deer-vehicle accidents in Ohio. The Ohio Journal of Science 99(4):84-94.
trends63.JPG
trends63.JPG
76.81 KB
The next several slides are downloaded from the Breeding Bird Survey web site, showing the 30-year trends in bird abundances across the country (and into southern Canada).

If the map is blue, the populations are increasing at least 1.5% per year over the 30 years; if red, a decrease of at least 1.5% per year.

Canada goose populations are way up.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends64.JPG
trends64.JPG
78.28 KB
Wild turkeys are up.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends65.JPG
trends65.JPG
80.36 KB
Pileated woodpeckers are up in the north, a mix south.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends66.JPG
trends66.JPG
73.65 KB
House finches are up in the East. It was introduced from the West to the East in 1940, and is now meeting the native populations in the center.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends67.JPG
trends67.JPG
82.71 KB
Some good news: the house sparrow is down in the East, maybe because the house finch is up?

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends68.JPG
trends68.JPG
75.83 KB
Northern bobwhite is mostly down.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends69.JPG
trends69.JPG
81.40 KB
Loggerhead shrike is mostly down.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends70.JPG
trends70.JPG
80.98 KB
Killdeer is a mix nationally, but mostly up in the Midwest.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends71.JPG
trends71.JPG
72.54 KB
For brown-headed cowbird, it is mostly down in the East, except for IL, IA and FL.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends72.JPG
trends72.JPG
76.87 KB
With starling, it is a mix, but overall in the Midwest, slightly down.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
trends73.JPG
trends73.JPG
78.17 KB
For pheasant, again a mix.

http://www.mbr.nbs.gov/bbs/htm96/trn626/all.html

Sauer, J.R., J.E. Hines, and J. Fallon. 2001. The North American breeding bird survey, results and analysis 1966-2000. Version 2001.2 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Laurel, MD.
Environmental Contaminants:
trends74.JPG
trends74.JPG
31.17 KB
A brief assessment on the trends in contaminants.

trends75.JPG
trends75.JPG
74.51 KB
The pH of rainfall shows a marked increasing trend from the central US eastward.

The acid rain has been shown to cause detrimental effects in some lakes.

Low pH problems are also evident as acid mine drainage, with over 12,000 km of streams with this type of problem.

Schmitt CJ. 1998. Environmental Contaminants. Pages 131-165 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends76.JPG
trends76.JPG
65.56 KB
Overall, however, most basins (over 60% of them in the northeast) suffer more from excessive nutrients and suspended solids.

McCorkle, C.O.Jr. and J.E. Halver, co-chairs. 1982. Impacts of emerging agricultural trends on fish and wildlife habitat. National Research Council. National Academy Press. Washington, D.C. 303 pp.
trends77.JPG
trends77.JPG
94.34 KB
This map shows the distribution of threatened or impaired waters, according to EPA.

Percentages of impaired land (polluted by sediments, nutrients, pathogens, pesticides, or heavy metals) by hydrologic unit code (large basin) is presented.

http://www.epa.gov/owow/tmdl/atlas/

US EPA. 2000. Total maximum daily load (TDML) program. EPA-840-B-00-002 . US EPA. Washington, D.C.
trends78.JPG
trends78.JPG
105.96 KB
Thelarge hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico is indicative of excessive nutrients moving down the Mississippi River.

The graph shows that the trend in nitrate flux has been generally up since 1960.

McIsaac et al.'s model showed that a 12% reduction in agricultural fertilization would reduce nitrates in the Gulf by 33%.

This 12% cutback should be reasonable since farmers generally are adding >30% more N than necessary.

McIsaac GF, David MB, Gertner GZ, Goolsby DA. 2001. Nitrate flux in the Mississippi River. Nature 414:166-167.
trends79.JPG
trends79.JPG
55.00 KB
Overall pesticide use was up dramatically from 1960-1980, then has leveled off.

Schmitt CJ. 1998. Environmental Contaminants. Pages 131-165 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends80.JPG
trends80.JPG
121.07 KB
The Cornbelt and CA are some of largest users of agricultural chemicals. Over 60% of chemicals are used on corn or soybeans.

Schmitt CJ. 1998. Environmental Contaminants. Pages 131-165 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Climate Change:
trends81.JPG
trends81.JPG
53.85 KB
Climate change is upon us. I'll try to provide some evidence for past change, and estimates of what may happen.

trends82.JPG
trends82.JPG
104.92 KB
A lot of what I will present is contained within the US National Assessment reports, 3 of which are shown here (and 3 I was involved with).

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/midatlantic.htm
trends83.JPG
trends83.JPG
118.11 KB
Carbon dioxide concentrations are rising, as documented on Mauna Loa since 1959, and before that in ice core data.

www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)
trends84.JPG
trends84.JPG
119.47 KB
If we go back 150,000 years, the temperature and CO2 concentrations track each other very well, up until a few years ago.

Now we are at unprecidented levels of CO2: what will happen to the temperature?

www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)
trends85.JPG
trends85.JPG
59.13 KB
Global land surface temperatures over the past 120 years shows first a cool period, then a warmer one, then cooler, then very warm.

9 of 10 hottest years on record have been since 1990.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html
trends86.JPG
trends86.JPG
82.37 KB
Winter temperatures have been rising in the northern plains, especially over the past 25 years.

The southeast has been cooling slightly, but that is also expected according to climate models.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/
trends87.JPG
trends87.JPG
91.05 KB
Precipitation is down in the upper plains in winter, and in the southeast in summer.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/
trends88.JPG
trends88.JPG
54.46 KB
The percent of US affected by extreme rainfall events (>2 inches of rain in 1 day) has been increasing.

Models predict a more vigorous hydrologic cycle.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/185.htm
trends89.JPG
trends89.JPG
83.65 KB
Climate change predictions include: increased temperature and precipitation in high latitudes in winter,

a reduction of diurnal range of temperature (higher night temperatures); more hot days but less cold days; more vigorous hydrological cycle (including more droughts AND floods).

trends90.JPG
trends90.JPG
106.03 KB
The National Assessment used two future climate scenarios in their analysis: the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and the Hadley.

Though both show elevated temperatures in this century, the CCC model is warmer, with up to 8 degrees C increase in middle America.

Both models show a wetter West, while the Hadley shows about a 25% increase in precipitation also in the East.

The CCC model shows a decrease of precipitation in the southeast and a severe decrease in the souther plain states.

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewlooking.htm
trends91.JPG
trends91.JPG
57.99 KB
According the the heat index, it will be significantly more uncomfortable in July, especially under the CCC scenario.

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../HeatIndex.jpg
trends92.JPG
trends92.JPG
71.50 KB
This shows the 'average' summer Illinois weather, and how it might shift by 2030 and 2090.

For the CCC scenario, it shifts south and west, for the Hadley, south and east.

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../SummerChange.jpg
trends93.JPG
trends93.JPG
63.18 KB
We have been analyzing the potential distribution trends of suitable habitat for 80 eastern tree species.

The model, called DISTRIB, creates maps of potential habitat under a doubled CO2 climate according to 5 climate change scenarios, and has been published in this atlas.

Iverson, L.R., A.M. Prasad, B.J. Hale, and E.K. Sutherland. 1999. An atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the eastern United States. General Technical Report NE-265. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service. 245 pp.

Iverson LR, Prasad AM. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485.

trends94.JPG
trends94.JPG
76.05 KB
And also on this web site: Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends95.JPG
trends95.JPG
75.44 KB
Here is the current distribution of quaking aspen, using importance value (current FIA), and the potential future suitable habitat according to the Hadley and CCC models.

There is a northward shift in the suitable habitat, with a more northward shift with the CCC scenario.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends96.JPG
trends96.JPG
70.13 KB
For red pine, the species habitat shows an extirpation from the U.S. under the CCC scenario.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends97.JPG
trends97.JPG
82.38 KB
For some southern species, there is a large expansion of suitable habitat, especially with the CCC scenario.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends98.JPG
trends98.JPG
73.82 KB
And for some other species, like this water tupelo, the climate drivers are secondary to edaphic drivers.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends99.JPG
trends99.JPG
85.42 KB
After evaluating the potential changes in habitat for 80 species, according to changes in importance value and range, these 20 species emerge as the 20 top gainers in U.S. habitat.

Many of the southern pines and oaks would see a large increase in suitable habitat. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends100.JPG
trends100.JPG
82.08 KB
These would be the bottom 20, the ones likely to lose suitable habitat within the U.S.

Most of these are northern species that would have their habitat migrate into Canada.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends101.JPG
trends101.JPG
107.27 KB
By evaluating the 80 species in combination, we can produce forest type maps of today and potentially of future suitable habitat.

Both the Hadley and CCC scenarios show substantial loss of spuce-fir, maple-beech-birch, and aspen-birch habitat.

Habitat for the oak-hickory and oak-pine types would increase substantially.

Hansen AJ, Dale V, Flather C, Neilson RP, Bartlein P, Iverson L, Currie D. 2001. Global change in forests interactions among biodiversity, climate, and land use. BioScience 51(9)765-779.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends102.JPG
trends102.JPG
122.25 KB
The SHIFT model simulates tree migration through current and historic forested landscapes.

It estimates the probability of cell colonization, via a cellular automata model, over the next 100 years.

These maps for Ohio show the 1800, forested landscapes to have a much higher probability of colonization, as compared to current conditions of highly fragmented forests.

Iverson LR, Prasad AM, Schwartz MW. 1999. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 11577-93.

Schwartz MW, Iverson LR, Prasad AM. in press. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems.
trends103.JPG
trends103.JPG
70.64 KB
Climate also bears a large influence on various wildlife species.

This is one example showing the match of a January minimum isotherm with the northern limit of the eastern phoebe.

These types of relationships exist for many species.

Schneider SH, Root TL. 1998. Climate Change. Pages 89-116 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends104.JPG
trends104.JPG
54.70 KB
Currie has put together this map showing potential changes in bird species richness under a doubled CO2 climate.

It shows a decrease in richness in the southern part of the country.

Hansen AJ, Dale V, Flather C, Neilson RP, Bartlein P, Iverson L, Currie D. 2001. Global change in forests interactions among biodiversity, climate, and land use. BioScience 51(9):765-779.
Conclusions
trends105.JPG
trends105.JPG
113.59 KB
Conclusions 1: please read.
trends106.JPG
trends106.JPG
88.84 KB
Conclusions 2: please read.
trends107.JPG
trends107.JPG
92.73 KB
Thanks for your interest and attention. This slide shows a couple of the main sources used in this presentation, and my contact information.

Created by Iverson