WWETAC Projects
Project Title: GMWest: a risk assessment system for gypsy moth introductions in the Pacific Northwest
Status: Completed
Principal Investigators: Jesse A. Logan, EnviroWise Design; Wally Macfarlane, GEO/Graphics, Inc.; Steve Munson, USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection
Summary: Multiple introductions of gypsy moth life stages occur every year throughout the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Many of these introductions are detected early, and decisions are required to develop a response to detected introductions. The evaluation of risk for gypsy moth establishment in the Pacific Northwest poses significant challenges for both ecological and sociological reasons. The difficulties in determining risk are confounded by climate variation and potential long-term climate warming. In response to improving gypsy moth risk assessment analysis, Forest Service Forest Health Protection funded a special technology development project to create an improved risk assessment system. The risk assessment system is called GMWest. GMWest was specifically developed to evaluate the risk of establishment for detected gypsy moth introductions in the state of Utah, although from the beginning we envisioned a risk assessment system that would be applicable to all portions of the Western United States. System development first required acquiring a variety of databases regarding landscape features, vegetation, and weather/climate variables. Next, "probability of establishment" maps were produced using weather and climate variables from the database as input to a validated gypsy moth phenology model. A "hazard of establishment" map layer was produced that could be combined using GIS with other layers in the database (host distribution, land use, demographic, topographic, and transportation) to produce a "risk of establishment" map. As GMWest produces georeferenced data layers that are combined and manipulated by using a geographic information system (GIS), the system is extremely flexible and adaptable. This project is adapting the GMWest model to ecological conditions and changing climates in the Pacific Northwest and is, to the extent possible, adding Asian gypsy moth to the modeling system.
Key Issues/Problems Addressed: Multiple introductions of gypsy moth life stages occur every year throughout the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Many of these introductions are detected early, and decisions are required to develop a response to detected introductions. The evaluation of risk for gypsy moth establishment poses significant challenges for both ecological and sociological reasons. The difficulties in determining risk are confounded by climate variation and potential long-term climate warming. In response to improving gypsy moth risk assessment analysis, Forest Service - Forest Health Protection funded a special technology development project to create an improved risk assessment system. The risk assessment system is called GMWest. The three main components of GMWest are:
- BioSIM—a software program used to forecast events in the seasonal biology of insect pests.
- GMWest Geoprocessing Model—a GIS model specifically designed for assessing gypsy moth establishment in the PNW.
- GMWest GIS—A comprehensive GIS database for the PNW.
Project Objectives: Objective 1. Expand the existing gypsy moth risk assessment system (GMWest) to include Washington and Oregon and investigate its utility to assess risk for the European, North American, and Asian strains of this insect. Although the physiologically based gypsy moth model is location independent, the databases necessary for risk assessment need to be developed for each of these states. These include: DEMs of various resolution, historical and projected weather, 30-meter vegetation data, land use, and various base map layers.
Objective 2. Expand the GMWest system to include the Asian gypsy moth strain to the extent possible.
GMWest workshop goals:
- Demonstrate and provide instruction on the use of BIOSIM and the GMWest system.
- Provide instruction on linking risk databases produced by GMWest with other GIS databases to result in useful management tools.
- Gain insights from workshop participants on future expansion and applications of GMWest for all gypsy moth strains in the PNW.
General description of the GMWest system:
GMWest was specifically developed to evaluate the risk of establishment for detected gypsy moth introductions in the state of Utah, although from the beginning we envisioned a risk assessment system that would be applicable to all portions of the Western United States. System development first required acquiring a variety of databases regarding landscape features, vegetation, and weather/climate variables. Next, "probability of establishment" maps were produced using weather and climate variables from the database as input to a validated gypsy moth phenology model. A "hazard of establishment" map layer was produced that could be combined using GIS with other layers in the database (host distribution, land use, demographic, topographic, and transportation) to produce a "risk of establishment" map. As GMWest produces georeferenced data layers that are combined and manipulated by a GIS, the system is extremely flexible and adaptable.
General description of GMWest workshop
The GMWest workshop provides individuals responsible for gypsy moth monitoring and eradication in the Pacific Northwest with a turn-key system useful for improving detection and eradication management decisions. The workshop will consist of two days of training with the primary objectives providing:
- An overview of GMWest functionality
- A hands-on opportunity to use GMWest to generate hazard/risk assessment maps for the Bend, Oregon, area using BioSIM and ArcGIS software.
Deliverables: Each participant will receive the following products:
- BioSIM software with documentation
- GMWest System User Guide
- GMWest GIS database
Status: The GMWest system expansion to the PNW has been completed. The workshop is scheduled for Aug 7-8, 2007.
Project ID: FY07TS24 & FY07TS25
