WWETAC Projects

Project Title: Developing an interior west-wide model to predict present and future climatic influences on Armillaria root disease in the USA

STDP ID: R6-2007-03

Status: Ongoing

Principal Investigators: Ned Klopfenstein, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station; Helen Maffei and Aaron Smith, USDAS Forest Service, Region 6 Forest Health Protection; Mary Lou Fairweather, USDAS Forest Service, Region 3 Forest Health Protection

Collaborators: Robert L. Mathiasen, Northern Arizona University, School of Forestry; Mee-Sook Kim, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea; John Hanna, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station; Amy Ross-Davis, Western Forestry and Conservation Association

E-mail Contact: Ned Klopfenstein, nklopfenstein[at]fs.fed.us

Key Issues/Problems Addressed: Currently, Armillaria root disease causes growth/volume losses of 16-55% in areas of western North America. Armillaria root disease is typically more severe in highly susceptible tree species, and in trees that are maladapted to climate-induced stress (Ayres and Lombardero 2000; Kliejunas et al. 2009; McCarthy et al. 2001; Sturrock 2007). Thus, it is likely that climate change will further exacerbate damage from Armillaria root disease, and further predispose trees to beetle attack. Precise information on accurately identified species and occurrence of Armillaria spp. across diverse landscapes is needed to predict distribution (and activity) under current and changing climates. Predictions of the present and future distribution of Armillaria root disease can guide forest managers for implementing appropriate forest practices to manage Armillaria root disease according to current and future climates.

From 2007 to present, USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection (FHP) Region 6 and Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) collaborated to collect information on Armillaria spp. distribution in Oregon’s East Cascades, and Armillaria isolates were identified by DNA sequencing. In 2010 and 2011, FHP Region 3, Northern Arizona University (NAU), and Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) will survey for Armillaria spp. and determine their ecological roles in Arizona. Armillaria spp. are known to occur in Arizona (Gilbertson and Bigelow 1998), but little is known about which species occur, where they occur, which host trees they infect, and the impact of the root disease.

This proposed project will integrate distribution data for Armillaria spp. into bioclimatic models that can predict potential distribution of Armillaria root disease pathogens based on climate and host tree distribution. A bioclimatic modeling approach will allow more precise predictions of pathogens and associated disease, because these predictions will be based on actual distribution and climate data. Using this approach, future Armillaria spp. distributions can be predicted using various climate-change scenario projections.

Study Objectives and Goals: This project will develop methods to predict potential distribution of Armillaria solidipes (=A. ostoyae) under present and future climate scenarios, which will enhance root disease information for the National Disease Risk Map. We propose to 1) use existing and new Armillaria survey data to evaluate/refine existing bioclimatic models for predicting the present and future suitable climate space (the geographic area that is climatically suitable for a particular species’ survival) for Armillaria spp. in the interior western USA; 2) use existing models that predict climate-change-induced stress on host trees, which could exacerbate Armillaria root disease; and 3) integrate predictions of suitable climate space for the Armillaria root-disease pathogens and host tree species to determine areas most at risk for disease.

General Description:

(1) FY 2010: Acquire Armillaria survey data from Arizona; integrate existing Armillaria survey data from Oregon’s East Cascades into a bioclimatic model to predict suitable climate space across the interior west;
(2) FY2011: Integrate Armillaria survey data from Arizona into the bioclimatic model to predict suitable climate space across the interior west; model host distribution and suitable climate space under various climate change scenarios;
(3) FY2012: Based on model output, determine areas for further sampling and areas at risk for Armillaria root disease in the interior western USA under present and future climate conditions; prepare technical and scientific reports. Prepare data for integration into the National Disease Risk Map.

Status: Armillaria spp. surveys were conducted by Forest Health Protection (Region 6) in the East Cascades of Oregon. After two field seasons, ca. 250 plots have been surveyed, and Armillaria spp. were found on ca. 145 plots. Armillaria spp. isolates were established in culture and identified using rDNA sequencing. Attempts are underway to develop prediction models for Armillaria spp. in the Oregon East Cascades and the interior northwestern USA, based on plant vegetation subseries and/or climatic factors.

Surveys for Armillaria spp. in Arizona will occur over the field seasons of 2010 and 2011 through collaborative work with FHP (Region 3), NAU, and FIA. Samples will be sent to the RMRS laboratory in Moscow for establishment in culture and identification. These results will be incorporated into a prediction model for the southwestern USA.

After Armillaria surveys and identification are completed, distribution data will be combined to develop prediction models for the interior western USA.

Technology Transfer Activities:
Klopfenstein, N.B., Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Richardson, B.A., Maffei, H., Smith, A.L., Lundquist, J.E. 2009. Approaches to predict impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease in the inland northwestern USA. Invited seminar to the Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, South Korea, 23 October, 2009 (Invited oral presentation by Klopfenstein).

Klopfenstein, N.B., Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Richardson, B.A., Maffei, H., Smith, A.L., Lundquist, J.E. 2009. Approaches to predict impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease in the inland northwestern USA. Invited seminar to the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Institute of Basic, Dankook University, Cheonan, South Korea, 26 October, 2009 (Invited oral presentation by Klopfenstein).

Klopfenstein, N.B., Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Richardson, B.A., Maffei, H., Smith, A.L., Lundquist, J.E. 2009. Approaches to predict impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease in the inland northwestern USA. Invited seminar to the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Institute of Basic, Dongguk University, Seoul, South Korea, 27 October, 2009 (Invited oral presentation by Klopfenstein).

Klopfenstein, N.B., Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Richardson, B.A., Smith, A.L., Maffei, H.,  Lundquist, J.E. 2009. Toward predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease in the inland northwestern USA. Program and Abstracts of the 2009 KSPP and the 1st Joint Symposium of the Korea and Japan Plant Pathological Societies. 28- 31 October 2009. Jeju City, Jeju, South Korea. p. 219 (Invited poster presentation by Klopfenstein and Kim)  [Proceedings Abstract].

Klopfenstein, N.B., Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Richardson, B.A., Maffei, H., Smith, A.L., Lundquist, J.E. 2010. Toward predicting climatic influences on  distribution of Armillaria root-disease pathogens. invited oral presentation at Forest Health Monitoring 16th annual workgroup meeting. 2010 January 25-28, Albuquerque, NM. (invited presentation by Klopfenstein).

Hanna, J.W., Kim, M.-S., Ross-Davis, A.L., Richardson, B.A., Smith, A.L., Maffei, H., Lundquist, J.E., Klopfenstein, N.B. 2010. Development of predictive models to assess potential impacts of climate change on Armillaria root disease in western North America. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, All-Scientists Meeting. 23-25 March 2010, Fort Collins, CO (offered poster presentation by Klopfenstein) (Abstract)

Klopfenstein, N.B., Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Richardson, B.A., Ross-Davis, A.L. 2010. Diverse applications of genetics to address critical issues in forest pathology. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, All-Scientists Meeting. 23-25 March 2010, Fort Collins, CO (oral presentation by Klopfenstein) (Abstract).

Klopfenstein, N.B., Hanna, J.W., Kim, M.-S. 2010. Toward predicting potential impacts of climate change on Armillaria root disease in coniferous forests. XXIII IUFRO World Congress, G-18: Diseases and insects in pines threatening global forest health in the 21st century. 23-28 August 2010, Seoul, South Korea (invited presentation) published abstract.

Kim, M.-S., Hanna, J.W., Klopfenstein, N.B. 2010. Predicting potential invasiveness of Armillaria solidipes, a root pathogen of diverse forest trees. XXIII IUFRO World Congress, G-06: Alien invasive pathogens: threats to forest ecosystem integrity and services. 23-28 August 2010, Seoul, South Korea (invited presentation) published abstract.

Background Citations:

Ayres, M.P.; Lombardero, M.J. 2000. Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. The Science of the Total Environment. 262: 263-286.

Delworth, T.L.; Rosati, A.; Stouffer, R.J.; et al. 2006. GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part 1: Formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate.19: 643-674.

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J. 2001. Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 195-198.

Gilbertson, R.L.; Bigelow, D.M. 1998. Annotated checklist of wood-rotting Basidiomyces of the sky islands in southeastern Arizona. Journal of the Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science 31: 13-36.

Gordon, C.; Cooper, C.; Senior, C.A.; Banks, H.; Gregory, J.M.; Johns, R.C.; Mitchell, J.F.B.; Wood, R.A. 2000. The simulation of SST, sea-ice extents and ocean heat transport in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics. 16: 147-168.

Hanna, J.W.; Klopfenstein, N.B.; Kim, M.-S.; McDonald, G.I.; Moore, J.A. 2007a. Phylogeographic patterns of Armillaria ostoyae in the western United States. Forest Pathology. 37: 192-216.

Hanna, J.W.; Klopfenstein, N.B.; Kim, M.-S. 2007b. First report of the root-rot pathogen, Armillaria nabsnona, from Hawai‘i. Plant Disease 91: 634.

Hijmans, R.J.; Cameron, S.E.; Parra, J.L.; Jones, P.G.; Jarvis, A. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology. 25: 1965-1978.

Kim, M.-S.; Klopfenstein, N.B.; Hanna, J.W.; McDonald, G.I. 2006. Characterization of North American Armillaria species: Genetic relationships determined by ribosomal DNA sequences and AFLP markers. Forest Pathology 36: 145-164.

Kim, M.-S.; Klopfenstein, N.B.; Hanna, J.W.; Cannon, P.; Medel, R.; López, A. 2010. First Report of Armillaria Root Disease Caused by Armillaria tabescens on Araucaria araucana in Veracruz, Mexico. Plant Disease 94(6): 784.

Kliejunas, J. T.; Geils, B.; Glaeser, J. M.; Goheen, E. M.; Hennon, P.; Kim, M.-S.; Kope, H.; Stone, J.; Sturrock, R.; Frankel, S.J.2009. Review of Literature on Climate Change and Forest Diseases of Western North America. General Technical Report. PSW-GTR-225. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 54 p.

Klopfenstein, N.B.; Kim, M.-S.; Hanna, J.W.; Richardson, B.A.; Lundquist, J.E. 2009a. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-76. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 10 p.

Klopfenstein, N.B.; Lundquist, J.E.; Hanna, J.W.; Kim, M.-S.; McDonald, G.I. 2009b. First report of Armillaria sinapina, a cause of Armillaria root disease, associated with a variety of tree hosts on sites with diverse climates in Alaska. Plant Disease 93: 111.

Klopfenstein, N.B.; Kim, M.-S.; Hanna, J.W.; Richardson, B.A.; Lundquist, J.E. 2009. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-76. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 10 p.

McCarthy, J.J.; Canziani, O.F.; Leary, N.A.; Dokken, D.J.; White, K.S., eds. 2001. Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University. 1000 p.

Phillips, S.J.; Anderson, R.P.; Schapire, R.E. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling. 190: 231-259.

Phillips, S.J.; Dudik, M. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography. 31: 161-175.

Rehfeldt, G.E.; Crookston, N.L.; Warwell, M.V.; Evans, J.S. 2006. Empirical Analyses of Plant-Climate Relationships for the Western United States. International Journal of Plant Sciences (167) 6:1123-1150.

Sturrock, R.N. 2007. Climate change effects on forest diseases: an overview. pp. 51-55 In: Jackson, M.B., compiler. Proceedings of the 54th annual Western International Forest Disease Work Conference, 2-6 October 2006, Smithers, BC, Canada.

Project ID: FY10TS72