Rocky Mountain Research Station Publications

RMRS Online Publication
INT-RN-394: Implications of Random Variation in the Stand Prognosis Model


Hamilton, David A. Implications of random variation in the Stand Prognosis Model. Research Note INT-394. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station; 1991. 11 p.

Although the Stand Prognosis Model has several stochastic components, features have been included in the model in an attempt to minimize run-to-run variation attributable to these stochastic components. This has led many users to assume that comparisons of management alternatives could be made based on a single run of the model for each alternative. Recent analyses have demonstrated that this assumption may often be incorrect. Several possible solutions are given, and the author recommends that in almost all applications of the Stand Prognosis Model it would be wise to make at least two or three projections for each alternative. The number of replications required for any specific application must be determined by evaluating the tradeoff between the added costs of additional replications and the need for additional precision based on intended uses of model output.

Keywords: growth projection, management planning, modeling


About PDFs: For best results, do not open the PDF in your Web browser. Right-click on the PDF link to download the PDF file directly to your computer. Click here for more PDF help or order a printed copy of this publication.


Download INT-RN-394
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_int/int_rn394.pdf

PDF File Size: 465 K


Title: INT-RN-394: Implications of Random Variation in the Stand Prognosis Model
Publish Date: March 25, 2005
Last Update:
October 22, 2008

RMRS Publications | Order a publication | Contact Us