Research Note INT-RP-475
The Wilderness Threats Matrix: A Framework for Assessing Impacts
Potential Applications

The threats matrix has many potential applications to wilderness management. It can be used as a planning tool or to provide the framework for a comprehensive monitoring program. It can be used to assess research priorities or to develop a research program. It can also be used to establish management priorities, both for individual wildernesses and for larger aggregations of wilderness, such as those on a National Forest or in a Forest Service Region.

Planning and Monitoring Applications

An increasing number of wilderness management plans are based on the concept of Limits of Acceptable Change (Stankey and others 1985); these plans devote considerable attention to indicators. Indicators are specific parameters that can be monitored to evaluate the success of management programs. Successful wilderness management primarily entails protecting wilderness conditions (both biophysical and experiential) from threats (human activities). Consequently, indicators need to be developed for the full range of significant threats and potential impacts to wilderness.

Most of the indicators developed to date relate only to the threat posed by recreational use; other important threats are largely neglected. For example, the Bob Marshall Wilderness Limits of Acceptable Change Plan only contains indicators for the effects of recreation on soils, vegetation, and wilderness experiences. There are no indicators of the impacts of recreation on the six other attributes, or of the impacts of all other threats. Of the 72 cells in the threats matrix, indicators were developed for just three. Until effective indicators are developed for a wider range of potential impacts, Limits of Acceptable Change planning will be severely limited in scope. In future efforts, planners should use the threats matrix as a comprehensive overview of the range of potential wilderness concerns. Then, they should try to develop indicators that reflect the range of significant threats to the specific wilderness.

The threats matrix also may help managers think more comprehensively about monitoring in wilderness. In fact, the matrix has been adopted as part of a conceptual model of wilderness monitoring needs to be used by the four Federal agencies that manage the National Wilderness Preservation System (Cole and others 1993). To protect wilderness, a wide variety of potentially significant impacts need to be monitored. So far, research on wilderness monitoring techniques has been confined primarily to measuring recreation use and its effects on soils, vegetation, and wilderness experiences. Consequently, most wilderness monitoring is confined to these three types of impact-representing less than 5 percent of the full range of potential concerns (3 of the 72 cells). Monitoring techniques for some of the other impacts included in the threats matrix have been developed for lands outside of wilderness, but these techniques need to be modified before they can be readily used by wilderness managers. Entirely new monitoring protocols need to be developed for other types of impacts.

Research Program Applications

The threats matrix also provides an overview of wilderness concerns that can help establish an agenda for wilderness management research. For years, the only federally funded research group devoted solely to wilderness management research has been the Forest Service's Wilderness Management Research unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Formerly part of the Intermountain Research Station, this group is now part of the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute in Missoula, MT. To date, this group has worked primarily on one cell of the matrix, the effects of recreation on wilderness experiences. The group has conducted substantial research on two other cells, recreational impacts on vegetation and soils. The other 95 percent of the threats matrix has been virtually unexamined. Other research groups have developed knowledge about other threats to wilderness (such as fire suppression and air pollution), while conducting research that was not devoted exclusively to wilderness. However, most of the threats and impacts represented by the threats matrix have received no more than minimal research attention.

Research programs need to provide managers with five types of information about each cell in the threats matrix.

Nature of Impacts-What are the impacts of the threat on the attribute? For example, previous research has illustrated that fire suppression can alter vegetation structure (Kilgore and Heinselman 1990) and that recreational use can cause vegetation loss and soil compaction (Cole 1987). Most threats will have many different types of impact on each attribute.

Severity of Impacts and Factors that Influence Severity-Once we understand the types of impact that occur, we need to understand the magnitude of impact and how certain factors cause magnitude to vary. For example, research suggests that vegetation loss caused by recreation can range from no perceptible loss to complete denudation. Soil compaction caused by recreation ranges from no perceptible compaction to a severalfold increase. The amount of vegetation loss and soil compaction is a function of factors such as the amount of use, type of use, season of use, soil moisture, and the durability of the vegetation. Much has been learned about the influence of these factors (Cole 1987; Kuss and others 1990). This knowledge is important to managers because they can control the severity of impacts by manipulating these factors.

Significance of Impacts-Knowledge about the nature and severity of impacts can help managers understand the significance of these impacts. Some impacts-such as the effect of exotic species on air quality-are likely to be insignificant. Others-such as the effects of fire suppression on vegetation-are highly significant because they influence the composition, structure, and function of ecosystems for long periods over vast tracts of land. Specific criteria for judging significance are not well defined; they require integrating ecological concerns with human values. However, judgments about significance are critical to setting priorities related to threats and impacts.

Effectiveness of Management Strategies-Numerous alternative strategies have been implemented in attempts to control the impacts of different threats. Understanding the factors that influence the severity of impacts can help identify strategies that are likely to be effective. Once these strategies have been implemented, research should attempt to evaluate their success.

Indicators and Monitoring Techniques-As discussed previously, indicators need to be developed for threats that are likely to have significant impacts on wilderness. Information about the nature of impacts, along with an assessment of their significance, can help identify important indicators. In addition, researchers need to develop monitoring protocols for likely indicators and test these protocols in the field. This should allow managers to monitor the most significant threats to wilderness conditions cost effectively.

Individual Wilderness Applications

The threats matrix should also be used to establish management priorities for individual wildernesses. Wilderness managers need to gather information about the extent and severity of threats to their wilderness and the impacts of these threats. This information can be used, along with research information about the nature of impacts and public concern, to assess the relative significance of threats and impacts. The application to Northern Region wilderness that follows illustrates how this can be done based on group judgment.

Highly significant threats and impacts should be high priorities for management. These priority items should be among the issues and concerns that drive management plans. They should be the focus of monitoring efforts and other wilderness management programs. There may be very little information about threats or impacts that are thought to be highly significant. A critical need exists to gather information about the extent and severity of these impacts.

The cells in the threats matrix can also be used as categories for compiling and accessing information about impacts to wilderness. Separate files-either electronic or paper-can be kept for each combination of threat and attribute. Literature about these impacts, monitoring data, and experience with mitigation can be stored in these files.

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Title: Potential Applications: INT-RP-475 - The Wilderness Threats Matrix: A Framework for Assessing Impacts
Electronic Publish Date: October 31, 1996
Expires: Indefinite
Last Update: January 15, 2002

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