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The National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS) was designed in response to 1978 congressional direction that the USDA Forest Service develops and implements a cost-benefit analysis of fire-fighting activities to support fire program budget requests. A strategic fire management and budget planning tool, NFMAS, was later adopted by other wildland fire-management agencies. NFMAS-based analyses affect the composition, structure, and budgets of fire-management organizations protecting hundreds of millions of wildland acres. A sensitivity analysis was conducted of NFMAS to better understand the relationship between data input and model outcomes, as reflected by changes in C+NVC and MEL program options. Five input variables were selected for sensitization: Unit Mission Costs, Average Acre Costs, Net Value Change, Production Rates, and Escaped Fire Limits. A stratified random sample of 32 national forests was selected. NFMAS database tables were obtained and manipulated, with each variable increased and decreased at six levels (+25, +50, and +100 percent). Results indicated that Production Rates was always the most influential variable, Unit Mission Costs was always least influential, and the importance of the other variables depends on the choice of model outcome. Results are currently in review for publication by a professional journal.
Principal investigator and staff:
Ervin Schuster
Michael Krebs
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