Annual Fire Expenditure Forecasts

Standing at the head of Lake McDonald in Glacier National Park, firefighter Marc Lutsko of Libby, Mont., watches a huge plume from the Moose fire Monday afternoon, Sept. 3, 2001 (KAREN NICHOLS/Associated Press) - Photo courtesy of Ravalli Republic

In FY 1996, RWU-4802 prepared a computer-based system to forecast annual fire suppression expenditures (actually the WFSU expenditures) for the Forest Service.  These efforts have proven very useful to WO-FAM in meeting anti-deficiency regulations.  This system produces annual, national-level, suppression expenditure forecasts by aggregating regional forecasts.  Regional forecasts are based on current fire suppression expenditures and statistical modeling of fire conditions expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.  The RWU will: 1) continue implementing this system in FY 2002; and 2) make modifications and evaluations as appropriate to reflect: a) the elimination of the overtime pay cap, and b) the elimination of B-codes. 

Principal Investigators:
   Krista Gebert
   Ervin Schuster

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