Annual Fire Expenditure Forecasts
Since 1998, RMRS-4802 has provided the Forest Service
with forecasts of annual wildland fire suppression expenditures.
Over the years, this project has evolved to encompass several related,
but separate projects:
1) Current Fiscal Year Fire Season Forecasts:
Anti-deficiency regulations compel the Federal agencies responsible
for land management to monitor actual and expected emergency fire
suppression expenditures to ensure they remain within budgetary
authorization. As part of this process, in FY 1998, the Rocky
Mountain Research Station (RMRS) developed a forecasting tool
and process for use by the USDA Forest Service (FS), which makes
use of available fire information, year-to-date expenditure information,
and forecasts of upcoming fire activity provided by National Interagency
Fire Center personnel. In FY 2004, RMRS developed a similar tool
for use by the Department of Interior (DOI). This forecasting
tool is designed to be used starting in June of each year to provide
agency leadership and the Office of Management and Budget with
monthly forecasts of total, fiscal year fire suppression expenditures.
Principal Investigator: Krista Gebert
Cooperators: Tom Wordell, Wildland Fire Analyst, Predictive Services,
NICC
2) Current Fiscal Year "Early Warning" Forecasts:
This is a joint project between researchers at the Rocky Mountain
Research Station (RMRS-4802) and the Southern Research Station
(SRS-4851) to provides forecasts of annual Forest Service suppression
expenditures in October and March of the current fiscal year.
The forecasting system makes use of weather and climate information
to predict acres burned and, subsequently, uses those acreage
predictions and historical and evolving relationships between
acres and other cost trends to predict annual suppression expenditures.
Principal Investigators:
Krista Gebert, RMRS-4802
Jeff Prestemon, SRS-4851
Karen Abt, SRS-4851
Cooperator: Anthony Westerling, Scripps Institution
of Oceanography
3) Suppression Fund Allocation Model: In 2004,
the Strategic Issues Panel on Large Fire Costs was formed to review
wildland fire strategies influencing large fire costs and issue
recommendations to improve cost containment. One of the panel's
seven recommendations was to "increase the level of accountability
and interest for large fire costs and their impacts by allocating
suppression funds on a regional or equivalent basis." Researchers
at RMRS-4802 are cooperating with researchers from the Southern
Research Station (SRS-4851) to develop statistical models to aid
in meeting this recommendation. Using and refining the models
developed for predicting annual suppression expenditures, an analysis
of different allocation funding alternatives is being conducted.
Principal Investigators:
Krista Gebert, RMRS-4802
Jeff Prestemon, SRS-4851
Karen Abt, SRS-4851
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