Lisa Crozier

University of Washington

Co-Authors: Rich Zabel, Alan Hamlet

Abstract: Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. I show how environmental conditions affect juvenile growth and survival in spring/summer Chinook salmon, based on results from a long-term PIT-TAG study in 18 populations in the Salmon River Basin. Because temperature and flow had strong effects on survival, we projected the effects of climate change on these physical factors by downscaling predictions from General Circulation Models to a locally-calibrated hydrological model. We incorporated this information into a population dynamic model to predict the consequences of climate change for population abundance and viability. We found that populations differed in their sensitivity to particular environmental changes, and thus will likely differ somewhat in climate change impacts. I discuss the implications of these results for future research on the effects of climate change for bull trout and potential implications for management.

Video Length: 21 Minutes, 37 Seconds

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Quantifying climate change impacts on population abundance and viability – lessons from Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon