Adaptive Management & Monitoring
Regions 1 and 4, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS)
FY01 Progress Report and FY02 Plans- October 1, 2001
Project Category: Watershed, Soils, and Riparian
Project Title: Are predictive indicators in a standard regional model accurate in determining peak discharge and other flooding and debris-flow hazards from recently burned basins?
Project Leader:
Susan Cannon, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Golden, CO and Bob Wintergerst, Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF, Butte, MT
Participating Research Contacts:
Susan Cannon, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO
Robert Wintergerst, USDA Forest Service, Butte, MT
John Metesh, Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, Butte, MT
Robert Davis, U.S. Geological Survey, Helena, MT
Chuck Parrett, U.S. Geological Survey, Helena, MT
David Clark, U.S. Geological Survey, Boise, ID
Jack Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey, ID
Participating Forests/Grassland Contacts:
Bitterroot NF - Bob Hammer, Dennis Gordon
Helena NF - Bo Stuart
Custer NF - John Lane
Boise NF - T.J. Clifford
Nez Perce NF - Nick Gerhardt, Pat Green, Jim Paradiso
Payette NF - Randy Zuniga
Salmon-Challis NF - Bob Rose, Betsy Rieffenberger
Funds - Total Project Cost and Timeframe (1-5 years):
2001: $60,000
Carryover: $60,000
2002: $90,000
2003-2005: (remaining costs...itemize if available)
Progress in 2001:
To monitor the runoff response of burned basins to rainfall events, we installed 10 tipping bucket-recording rain gages and 11 crest stage gages in a total of 9 basins burned by fires during the summer of 2000. The monitored watersheds are located to represent a diversity of geologic, geomorphologic, microclimatic, and burn severity conditions. From this monitoring array, and from indirect measurements, we obtained 17 measurements of peak discharge. Because data collected from this monitoring effort is being augmented by data-collection efforts funded by other USDA Forest Service and USGS programs, we will have runoff, rainfall, and basin characteristic data from an additional 13 basins available for further evaluation.
Post-event field examinations have identified the transport processes active in each monitored basin. We have compiled basin characteristic data (including area, gradient, relief ratio, aspect, and burned distribution) for half of the monitored basins. In addition, we have determined if water-repellent soils are present in the basins, and collected samples of surficial materials for grain-size distribution testing.
We also compiled a database consisting of approximately 60 measurements of post-fire peak discharge and the characteristics of the basins from which these measurements were made from the published literature. We thus have data from approximately 82 burned basins for use in the next phase of this project.
We also held meetings with the participating research and USDA Forest Service contacts to keep any interested parties apprised of our activities, and to assure that our monitoring efforts would compliment any additional on-going efforts.
Note from Wintergerst:
All participants in the project began work on the project prior to the allocation of the funding. This shows the cooperative nature of all the parties involved. Special recognition needs to be extended to Roger Henderson and Elaine Hilliard, (R1 Grants and Agreements) for their efforts in the processing of the agreements.
Plans for 2002:
The focus of FY2002 work will be the evaluation and modification of GIS-based methodologies for assessing the relative hazards posed by post-fire flood and debris-flows. The runoff and basin-characteristic data collected in FY2001 will provide the basis for the evaluations and relations that will be used to modify the methodologies. In addition, the data collected from this study will be used in the application of a multiple logistic regression analysis to develop a model for debris-flow susceptibility. Application of this model to individual drainage basins burned by the summer of 2001 wildfires can be used to generate probabilistic maps of debris-flow hazards.
Note that these evaluations will be based on data from only one year of post-fire monitoring. Continued, and possibly expanded monitoring and monitoring efforts have the potential of considerably increasing our understanding of post-fire runoff events. Therefore, an update of the project work plan may need to occur in the future.
Products and/or tech transfer expected in 2002:
Reports that describe the techniques and results from this project will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals. Maps of specific burned areas that depict the relative hazards posed by post-fire flooding and debris flow, and maps that show the probability of debris-flow occurrence will be submitted to the appropriate National Forests. All information will be adaptable and in a format that can be used on a website and in a database.
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