|
|
Proposal Title: Development of risk assessment tools for reintroducing fire and BAER implementation. Contacts: James Clayton, Jack King, Charlie Luce, Alan Barta, RMRS-Boise What are the critical management questions to answer: Postfire debris flows and soil erosion can dramatically alter aquatic and terrestrial habitat and may be a threat to human life and property. An accurate assessment of the risks of debris flows and increased soil erosion (hereafter referred to as sediment risk) is needed by decision-makers for prioritizing and implementing burned area emergency rehabilitation (BAER) programs. This need is underscored by the large sums that have been spent on BAER over the last decade (over $21million on the Boise NF alone, John Thornton, per. comm.). Additionally, managers need better tools to assess these risks as they implement the National Fire Plan by reintroducing fire into areas high fire vegetation hazards (see Boise National Forest, 2000, for which hazards has been mapped for entire forest). Managers need tools such as this to assist in evaluating the trade-offs between treatments (such as prescribed fire and thinning) and not treating stands that are at a risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfires. We propose to develop decision support tools to address the following critical management questions:
Answers to these questions will be helpful to managers because debris flows and surface erosion are particularly relevant to the wildland/urban interface, the habitat of threatened and endangered aquatic species, and impaired stream segments (303d list per Clean Water Act). Debris flows in the wildland/urban interface are a threat to life and property. Increased sediment has the potential to adversely impact municipal water supplies. Project Description: Wildfire increases the risk of debris flows and surface erosion. The objective of this project is to develop decision support tools that address sediment risk for BAER implementation and reintroducing fire into ecosystems whose vegetation is at a high risk of catastrophic wildfire due to past suppression. The mechanisms that produce debris flows and surface erosion are the same for both applications, but the available information and tools needed are slightly different. To assess sediment risk after a wildfire (BAER), resource specialists have site-specific knowledge of burn severity and soil water repellency, and the primary need is to assess the risk for a variety of BAER mitigation scenarios. We propose to use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) [Pearl, 1988] to assess sediment risk. BBNs have been used recently to assess salmonid population viability [Lee and Rieman, 1997] and to evaluate the effects of land management alternatives for the Interior Columbia River Basin [Rieman et al., in press]. Included in this proposal (Figures 1 and 2 below) are two prototype belief networks [Barta, 2000]. The first was developed for BAER and the second to plan forest health treatments. Surface erosion is not shown but is included in the work proposed; it will be addressed using an approach widely used in Regions 1 and 4 [Cline et al., 1981] as well as incorporating more recent work [e.g. Robichaud and Brown, 1999]. Information to parameterize the BAER treatment components of the BBN have recently been synthesized [Robichaud et al., 2000] and considerable current research is under way in this area (see "Current Work" below). We expect to add nodes for specific BAER treatments (e.g. contour felled logs, check dams) and the ability to use site-specific costs of those treatments to optimize the mixture of treatments to get the desired risk reduction at the lowest cost. Also shown on the prototype BBN are two highlighted sets of nodes where additional field investigation is needed to produce accurate and scientifically credible assessments of risk. Because others are working on relating burn severity to reduced infiltration and soil water repellency, we will concentrate our field investigation on developing relations between precipitation as measured by radar (NEXRAD), geomorphology, and soil parameters to sites where postfire debris flows have occurred. For planning fuels reduction treatments to restore forest health, we will not have direct observations of burn severity to evaluate sediment risk (as we do for the BAER application). Instead, this information will need to be predicted based upon pre- and post-treatment vegetation and fuels characteristics [Beukema et al., 2000]. This planning process also will provide an opportunity to use the decision support tools proposed here in concert with those used by silviculturists planning vegetation treatments (e.g. FSVEG, MAGIS, SIMPPLLE). We would expect to work closely with the Boise National Forest on this project, because they have already completed a forest-wide analysis to determine the stands that are most at risk of uncharacteristic catastrophic wildfire [Boise National Forest, 2000] but we postulate that this work is directly transportable throughout the inland West (covering all of Regions 1 and 4). We would also welcome other forests as partners in this project. Timing:
Expected Products: Decision support tools and user guide to assess sediment risk for BAER and planning forest health treatments, and peer-reviewed scientific paper describing and evaluating these decision support tools. Potential Partners: Boise National Forest and additional National Forests in Region 1 and 4 as opportunities arise. Although not contacted prior to the submittal of this proposal, the researchers listed under current work below will be contacted to explore collaborative opportunities. Current Work: Several projects funded by the National Fire Plan R&D capacity-building program address research questions related to this Adaptive Management and Effectiveness Monitoring Proposal. Details of these projects may be found on the FS Intranet at fsweb.cfsl.pnw.fs.fed.us/unit/mdr_fera. The projects that are most relevant to this work include:
We will contact the researchers working on these projects and integrate the results of their research into the proposed decision support tools as applicable. References:
Barta, A.F., 2000, Modeling debris and hyperconcentrated flow risks following wildfire, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 81(48):F523.
Beukema, S.J., E. Reinhardt, J.A. Greenough, W.A. Kurz, N. Crookston, and D.C.E. Robinson, 2000, Fire and fuels extension: model description. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC for U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, ID. 80 pp.
Boise National Forest, 2000, Forest Wide Risk Assessment for the Management of the Boise National Forest, Draft Internal Report (August 2000).
Cline, R., G. Cole, W. Megahan, R. Patten, and J. Potyondy, 1981, Guide for predicting sediment yields from forested watersheds, U.S.D.A. Forest Service Northern and Intermountain Regions.
Lee, D.C. and B.E. Rieman, 1997, Population viability assessment of salmonids by using probabilistic networks, North American Journal of Fisheries Management 17: 1144-1157.
Pearl, J., 1988, Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, California.
Rieman, B., J.T. Peterson, J. Clayton, P. Howell, R. Thurow, W. Thompson, and D. Lee, in press, Evaluation of potential effects of Federal land management alternatives on trends in salmonids and their habitats in the Interior Columbia River Basin, Journal of Forest Ecology and Management.
Robichaud, P.R., J.L. Beyers, and D.G. Neary, 2000, Evaluating the effectiveness of postfire rehabilitation treatments, U.S.D.A. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-63.
Robichaud, P.R. and R.E. Brown, 1999, What happened after the smoke cleared: onsite erosion rates after a wildfire in eastern Oregon, In: Olsen, D.S. and J.P. Potyondy (eds.), Proceedings of the Wildland Hydrology Conference, June 1999, Bozeman, Montana. American Water Resources Association: 419-426.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
HOME •
FIRES •
CONTACTS •
FENCES •
LINKS •
STATE UPDATES
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
