Fire Science: Forecasting Fire Weather
^ Main Topic |
Forecasting Fire Weather |
Managing Fire and Fuels |
Masticated Fuel |
Social Aspects of Fire
Good fire management planning requires fire weather predictions on
several time scales ranging from hours to months. Fire weather forecasts
of expected conditions beyond a few days, however, are generally unavailable.
We have been conducting research necessary to extend fire weather forecasts.
Using a combination of statistical and dynamic physical models, our research
aims to provide forecast tools for the medium-range (daily forecasts out to
10-15 days), extended-range (30 days), and for seasons (90 days). Because
the accuracy of weather forecasts varies with season, location, and parameter,
we are exploring methods of presenting forecast reliability maps within the
We are also doing research to describe fire weather conditions on a
spatial scale that approaches the requirements for fire behavior modeling.
We employed a nested grid model, which scales large weather patterns down
to smaller dimensions, where complex terrain variations have a profound effect.
A nested grid model can accurately reflect details of terrain, and therefore
the finer variations of weather. Such a model was used to describe small scale
wind circulation across the island of Maui, Hawaii.
Climate Change Descriptions:
Many of the technical aspects of the long range fire weather
forecasting problem are common to the climate facet of the global
change problem. Our research also is aimed at describing regional
scenarios of climate change within the larger global context. One
of our major objectives is to obtain succinct mathematical descriptions
of time/space variations of fire climate and then portray these
dynamics graphically on a computer. Ultimately, the information
will be used to determine the impacts of climate change on
Research conducted by: