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[Text Graphic] Introduction to CRAFT's Wizard

The Wizard provides detailed guidance for planning teams so your risk assessments include clear objectives, robust alternatives, sophisticated modeling of effects and syntheses that are useful for decision makers. The Wizard follows the same order as the primary pages of CRAFT.

How to use the Wizard
The Four Stages
Wizard Outline and Tables
Tables used in a working example

 Wizard outline Specifying Objectives Designing alternatives Modeling effects Synthesis Describe the situation Describe the problem Hierarchically structure objectives Design alternatives Refine alternatives Evaluate information and uncertainty Identify endpoints Probabilistically model effects Predict consequences Characterize tradeoffs Rank alternatives Perform sensitivity analysis Select the preferred alternative

HOW TO USE THE WIZARD

CRAFT users of two types will find the Wizard useful. First-time visitors to the CRAFT website will find it easier to go through all the steps in the comparative risk assessment process in the Wizard. An experienced team may want to use the primary pages of CRAFT to go more rapidly through the process. Novice planning teams may find the Wizard especially useful because it provides a systematic process of requesting and documenting information. Both novice and experienced teams can benefit from the Wizard in the same way that experienced pilots always use checklists: there's a lot to remember and the Wizard can help assure that major points are not neglected.

We have provided tables to assist in recording, tracking and storing the products of your team's efforts. Some tables simply provide a convenient location to document consideration of issues, and these are optional to complete. Others are important to complete because they record information you will use in later steps; these are indicated as such.
Wizards are used in software and on websites to guide users step by step through a process. CRAFT's Wizard can be used as a tutorial to learn the website and background material. Once you're familiar with CRAFT, you'll probably want to use the primary pages.

You can apply the Wizard in several ways:

  • Take the team through the questions in the Wizard's order. This is probably the fastest way to learn CRAFT's features.
  • Move quickly through the questions for each stage, pushing the team to come up with preliminary answers, then go back through the information-related questions to see what reconnaissance and information collection needs to take place.
  • Have the team record their answers and "do their homework" individually or in small groups. The team would then re-assemble to review and reconcile differences in these answers and synthesize. This method also facilitates collaboration with members of stakeholder groups.
  • You may want to try going through all of the steps with a simple problem and using a reduced set of alternatives before addressing a complex problem. That is, focus on gaining confidence and understanding of the process first.

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FOUR STAGES

The Wizard is composed of four stages of planning and risk assessment, of which three directly involve creating a risk model or using it to analyze a situation. The activities in these stages of Wizard include:

I. Specifying Objectives, where the objectives of planners and other stakeholders are clarified and structured. You will start here.

II. Designing Alternatives, where action alternatives to meet objectives are formulated.

III. Modeling Effects, where the probabilistic effects of different alternatives, including the no action alternative, are estimated and compared.

IV. Synthesis, where risks are characterized and summarized for the decision maker.

For an overview of how the first of these three stages will work together, study the figure below. Alternatives affect the modeled ecosystem through a series of causal relationships. The ultimate effects are reflected in discrete endpoints that tier to lower level objectives.

The CRAFT process from higher to lower level objectives to endpoints that are affected by alternatives and other drivers.

Since model building and analysis are typically iterative, you will likely move back and forth among these three stages as you develop your project. For an overview of Wizard with links to all the steps that you will follow, go to the Wizard Outline and Tables page.

 

CRAFT has adapted concepts, questions and logic from Decision Protocol 2.0. Where these have been used, you'll see a "DP2.0" next to that section.

 

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Go to the Wizard's Specifying Objectives page to begin

 
 

Home ~ Getting Started ~ Resources ~ Site Map

I. Wizard's Specifying Objectives ~ II. Wizard's Designing Alternatives
III. Wizard's Modeling Effects ~ IV. Wizard's Synthesis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Specifying Objectives Designing Alternatives Modeling Effects Synthesis Wizard Resources CRAFT Home page