GOALS
The goal of Modeling Effects is to rigorously assess how the proposed alternatives will affect the objectives identified in your objectives hierarchy. Back in the Designing Alternatives stage, you associated proposed activities with objectives (Alternatives Table 1: Matching Objectives to Activities). Here, you will develop these relationships in detail by transforming your conceptual model into a probabilistic influence diagram or belief network.
The key purpose of this stage is to develop a probabilistic model of effects so that uncertainties are considered in a meaningful way. This process will help identify the likelihoods of different outcomes that result from both action and no action alternatives.
For an overview of Modeling Effects, go to the Wizard Outline and Tables page.
STEPS
III.A. Evaluate Information and Uncertainty: Determine the information needed to model effects. Assess the information's availability and reliability and describe the uncertainties that could affect model outcomes.
III.B. Identify Endpoints: Identify suitable assessment endpoints that will help characterize the consequences of the alternative actions. Identify important thresholds or unacceptable outcomes, if applicable.
III.C. Probabilistically Model Effects: Translate your conceptual model into a belief network and complete the network using available knowledge and data.
III.D. Predict Consequences: Determine how values of the endpoints change with each alternative action and which predicted values exceed acceptable levels. Decide if alternatives should be refined or eliminated from further consideration because of unacceptable consequences.
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Proceed to III.A. Evaluate Information and Uncertainty 
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