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How does CRAFT support the 2004 Forest Planning Rule and Healthy Forest Restoration Act?

CRAFT supports the Forest Service's new emphasis on Environmental Management Systems in two ways: (1) CRAFT improves how multiple, often competing objectives are integrated during the planning process and (2) CRAFT's emphasis on environmental processes and probability improves predictions of decision outcomes. CRAFT is especially adept at assessing the long-term and broad-scale risks that forest managers have historically struggled with the most.

What is the value of incorporating probability in decision making?

Use of probability acknowledges what scientists and managers have long known; that environmental systems are only somewhat predictable and the uncertainties that surround management actions can be considerable. Effective use of probability provides an honest look at the full range of what could happen, not just what is thought to be most likely to occur. CRAFT models with probability using Bayesian belief nets.

Are Bayesian belief nets based on what managers believe rather than science?

In order to answer complex problems, managers who use CRAFT will continue to rely on science. The CRAFT framework makes it more clear when, where and why science and assumptions (i.e., uncertainties) are used. More generally, the role of science it not to tell managers what to do, but to inform and improve management decisions. A belief net allows managers to make better use of relevant science.

How can CRAFT help reduce the uncertainties of my project?

Project uncertainties are of two types. Uncertainty that results from a lack of information can be reduced by targeted learning. Uncertainty also results from stochastic effects, such as weather. CRAFT helps clarify and reduce both types of uncertainty. For example, probabilistic modeling can help reveal the variables and relationships that are most likely to effect outcomes, and these are where targeted research may be warranted. Modeling stochastic variability in a belief net provides a transparent way to present management assumptions and contingencies. For more information see A Primer on Risk and Uncertainty and Uncertainties in Forest Risk Management.

How do CRAFT's comparative risk assessments differ from other risk assessments?

CRAFT's comparative risk assessment process allows users to compare tradeoffs between alternatives, such as action alternatives and the no action alternative. This is fundamentally different than the risk assessment approach used to calculate the chance of adverse environmental exposure, such as from a nuclear power plant accident. A comparative risk assessment is needed to assess short and long term consequences to multiple objectives, as is typical of forest planning.

How is CRAFT's risk assessment process different than NEPA?

CRAFT strengthens the quality of analyses required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The structural backbone of CRAFT is Decision Protocol 2.0, an approach that is rooted in NEPA requirements. To evaluate tradeoffs, the risk assessment approach used in CRAFT addresses long term and broad spatial scale effects that have historically been most difficult to address.

Will CRAFT help me get my project implemented?

The purpose of CRAFT is not to facilitate one activity over another, but to better understand the risks associated with a range of action alternatives. However, management teams that have have clearly defined objectives, meaningfully modeled their ecosystems and fairly analyzed the effects of alternative actions and non-actions will provide a transparent rationale for stakeholders.

Can I use fire models like BehavePlus and FARSITE in CRAFT?

Yes, Not only does CRAFT encourage use of the wealth of fire and forest models that exist, it provides a framework to help managers decide when different models may be appropriate, given the nature of their project and objectives.

How do I know which fire or succession model to use?

A wide assortment of fire and vegetation change models exist. Each was developed to address particular management or ecological issues. Many models only function at certain spatial and temporal scales, and models vary greatly in their ability to emulate different ecosystems or fire regimes. CRAFT provides guidance for using specific models across a range of belief net templates.

How much time will it take to learn CRAFT?

The time needed to work a project through CRAFT may not vary from the time needed to conduct projects without CRAFT. The time needed will likely vary among users or teams. First time users may find some aspects of CRAFT more or less difficult than what they are accustomed to.

If I know my objectives, can I skip that part of CRAFT?

CRAFT is designed to support a variety of planning and management efforts. Depending on their experience and interest, users can follow a fast track or a more meticulous course (Wizard). Some users may find that the supportive information alone is useful. That said, specifying objectives is an important part of the decision making process, and it should not be disregarded.

How useful is CRAFT for small-scale projects?

CRAFT is designed to support a wide range of projects, but projects that have effects over broad landscapes and long time periods may benefit most. Such projects invariably affect multiple resources and include the greatest uncertainties. Small-scale projects that have one or more long-term objective may find CRAFT's emphasis on probability especially useful.

 

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