Agee, J.K. 2002. The fallacy of passive management: managing for firesafe forest reserves. Conservation Biology in Practice, 3, 18-25.

Allen, C.D., Savage, M., Falk, D.A., Suckling, K.F., Swetnam, T.W., Schulke, T., Stacey, P.B., Morgan, P., Hoffman, M., & Klingel, J.T. 2002. Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective. Ecological Applications, 12, 1418-1433.

Barron, F. H. & Barret, B. E. 1996. Decision quality using ranked attribute weights. Management Science, 42, 1515-1523.

Berg, J., B. Bradshaw, J. Carbone, C. Chojnacky, S. Conroy, D. Cleaves, R. Solomon, S. Yonts-Shepard. 1999. Decision Protocol 2.0. USDA Forest Service, Ecosystem Management Coordination Staff, FS-634.

Beschta, R.L., Rhodes, J.J., Kauffman, J.B., Gresswell, R.E., Minshall, G.W., Frissell, C.A., Perry, D.A., Hauer, R., & Karr, J.R. 2004. Postfire Management on Forested Public Lands of the Western USA. Conservation Biology.

Camp, A., Oliver, C., Hessburg, P.F., & Everett , R. 1997. Predicting late successional fire refugia pre-dating European settlement in the Wenatchee Mountains . Forest Ecology and Management, 95, 63-77.

Clemen, R. T. 1996. Making hard decisions: An introduction to decision analysis. 2nd edition. Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.

Covington , W., Niering, W.A., Starkey, E., & Walker, J. 1999. Ecosystem restoration and management: scientific principles and concepts. In Ecological Stewardship: a Common Reference for Ecosystem Management (eds R.C. Szaro, N.C. Johnson, W.T. Sexton & A.J. Malk), Vol. II. Elsevier Science Ltd, Kidlington , UK .

Crawford, J.S., C.H.A. Wahren,, S. Kyle and W.H. Moir. 2001. Responses of exotic plant species to fires in Pinus ponderosa forests in northern Arizona . Journal of Vegetation Science, 12, 261-268.

Dennis, B. 1996. Discussion: Should ecologists become Bayesians? Ecological Applications 6(4):1095-1103.

Dunne, T., et al. 2001. A scientific basis for the prediction of cumulative watershed effects. Rep. No. 46. University of California Wildland Resource Center.

Edwards, W. & Barron, F. H. 1994. SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved simple methods for multiattribute utility measurement. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 60, 306-325.

Ellison, A. M. 1996. An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Ecological Applications 6(4):1036-1046.

Failing, L. and R. Gregory. 2003. Ten common mistakes in designing biodiversity indicators for forest policy. Journal of Environmental Management. 68:121-132.

Fisher, R. A. 1959. Statistical methods and scientific inference, 2nd edition. Hafner, New York.

Fornwalt, P.J., M.R. Kaufmann, L.S. Huckaby, J.M. Stoker and T.J. Stohlgren. 2002. Non-native plant invasions in managed and protected ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests of the Colorado Front Range. Forest Ecology and Management, 6104, 1-13.

Hamburg, M. 1987. Statistical analysis for decision making, 4^th edition. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, San Diego.

Hammond, J. S., R. L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa. 1999. Smart Choices. Harvard Business School Press, Boston.

Haas, T.C. 2001. A web-based system for public-private sector collaborative ecosystem management. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 15:101-131.

Heyerdahl, E.K., L.B. Brubaker and J.K. Agee. 2001. Spatial controls of historical fire regimes: a multiscale example form the interior west, USA . Ecology, 82, 660-678.

Horvitz, E. J., J. S. Breese, and M. Henrion. 1988. Decision theory in expert systems and artificial intelligence. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 2:247-302.

Howard, R., and J. Matheson. 1981. Influence diagrams. Pages 721-762 in Howard, R., and J. Matheson (editors). Readings on the prnciples and applications of decision analysis, Volume II. Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, CA.

Jensen, F.V., 2001. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Springer Verlag, New York, NY.

Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking: a path to creative decisionmaking. Harvard University Press.

Keeney, R. L., and H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value tradeoffs. John Wiley & Sons, New York.

Lee, D. C. and G. A. Bradshaw. 2004. Making monitoring work for managers: Thoughts on a conceptual framework for improving monitoring within large-scale ecosystem management efforts.

Lee, D. C. and B. E. Rieman. 1997. Population viability assessments of salmonids by using probabilistic networks. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 17:144-1157.

Lee, D. C. and L. L. Irwin. 2005. Assessing risks to spotted owls from forest thinning in fire-adapted forests of the western United States. Forest Ecology and Management (in press)

Ludwig. D., R. Hilborn, and C.J. Walters, 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history. Science 260: 17, 36.

Marcot, B. G., R. S. Holthausen, Martin G. Raphael, Mary M. Rowland, and Michael J. Wisdom. 2001. Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. Forest Ecology and Managment 153: 29-42.

McDaniels, T., 2000. Creating and Using Objectives for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management. Environmental Science and Policy, 3: 299-304.

McIver, J.D. & Starr, L. .2001. A literature review on the environmental effects of postfire logging. Western Journal of Applied Forestry, 16: 159-168.

Moore , M.M., Covington , W.W., & Fule, P.Z. 1999. Reference conditions and ecological restoration: a southwestern ponderosa pine perspective. Ecological Applications, 9, 1266-1277.

Morgan, M.G., B. Fischhoff, A. Bostrom, and C.J. Atman. 2001. Risk communication: a mental models approach. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Morgan, M. G. and M. Henrion. 1990. Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.

Neyman, J., and E. S. Pearson. 1933. On the problem of the most efficient test of statistical hypotheses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A, 231:289-337.

Norman , S.P. and A.H. Taylor. (2003) Tropical and North Pacific teleconnections influence fire regimes in pine-dominated forests of north-eastern California , USA . Journal of Biogeography, 30: 1081-1092.

Ohlson, D.W., T.M. Berry, R.W.Gray, Blackwell, B.A. and B.C.Hawkes. 2005. Multi-attribute evaluation of landscape-level fuel management to reduce wildifre risk. Forest Policy and Economics. (in press).

Pearl, J., 1988. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: Networks of plausible inference, 2nd edition. Morgan Kaufman, San Mateo, CA.

Pearl, J. 2000. Causality. Cambridge University Press.

Press, S. J. 1989. Bayesian statistics. John Wiley & Sons, New York.

Proffitt, C.E. and D.J. Devlin. 1998. Are there cumulative effects in red mangroves from oil spills during seedling and sapling stages? Ecological Applications, 8, 121-127.

Rauscher, H. 1999. Ecosystem management decision support for federal forests in the United States : a review. Forest Ecology and Management 114:173-197.

Reid, L.M. 1993. Research and cumulative watershed effects. Forest Service , U.S. Department of Agriculture Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-141. Albany , CA : Pacific Southwest Research Station, 118.

Reid, L.M. 1998. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis. In River Ecology and Management: lessons from the Pacific Coastal Ecoregion (eds. R.J. Naiman & R.E. Bilby), pp. 476-501. Springer.

Reiman, B., Peterson, J.T., Clayton, J., Howell, P., Thurow, R., Thompson, W., and Lee, D. 2001. Evaluation of potential effects of federal land management alternatives on trends of salmonids and their habitats in the interior Columbia River basin. Forest Ecology and Management 153: 43–62.

Richie, M.W. 1999. A compendium of growth and yield simulators for the Pacific States. General
Technical Report PSW-GTR-174. Albany CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest
Service. 59p.

Riffell, S.K., K.J. Gutzwiller, and S.H. Anderson. 1996. Does repeated human intrusion cause cumulative declines in avian richness and abundance. Ecological Applications, 6, 492-505.

Rollins, M.G., Swetnam, T.W., & Morgan, P. (2001) Evaluating a century of fire patterns in two Rocky Mountain wilderness areas using digital fire atlases. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 31: 2107-2123.

Royall, R. 1997. Statistical evidence: A likelihood paradigm. Chapman & Hall, London.

Shepard, B. B., B. Sanborn, L. Ulmer and D. C. Lee. 1997. Status and risk of extinction for westslope cutthroat trout in the upper Missouri River Basin, Montana. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 17: 1158-1172.

Shipley, B. 2000. Cause and Correlation in Biology. Cambridge University Press.

Taylor , A.H. and C.N. Skinner. 2003. Spatial and temporal patterns of historic fire regimes and forest structure as a reference for restoration of fire in the Klamath Mountains . Ecological Applications, 13: 704-719.

US Environmental Protection Agency. May 14, 1998. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment; Notice. Federal Register 63:93: 26845-26924.

US General Accounting Office. 1999. Western national forests: A cohesive strategy is needed to address catastrophic wildfire threats. GAO/RCED-99-65.

US General Accounting Office. 2000. Forest Service Planning: Better integration of broad-scale assessments into forest plans is needed. GAO/RCED-00-56.

US General Accounting Office. 2004. Wildland fires. Forest Service and BLM need better information and a systematic approach for assessing the risks of environmental effects. GAO-04-705.

Veblen, T.T., T Kitzberger, and J. Donnegan. 2000. Climate and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range. Ecological Applications, 10, 1178-1195.

Walters, C. 1986. Adaptive management of renewable resources. Macmillian, New York.

Weatherspoon, C.P. and C.N. Skinner. 1995. An assessment of factors associated with damage to tree crowns from the 1987 wildfires in northern California. Forest Science, 41, 430-451.

Yonts-Shepard, S., D. Cleaves, B. Bradshaw. 1999. The USDA Forest Service Decision Protocol: lessons in developing and adopting new decision processes. Presentation at the National Conference on Environmental Decision-making, April 11-14, 1999 , National Center for Environmental Decision-making Research.

Ziemer, R.R., Lewis, J., Rice, R.M., & Lisle, T.E. 1991. Modeling the cumulative effects of forest management strategies. Journal of Environmental Quality, 20, 36-42.

Ziemer, R.R. 1994. Cumulative effects assessment impact thresholds: myths and realities. In Cumulative Effects Assessments in Canada : From Concept to Practice. (ed A.J. Kennedy, ed.), pp. 319-325. Alberta Association of Professional Biologists., Edmonton , Alberta , Canada.

Back to Top

Home ~ Getting Started ~ Resources ~ Wizard ~ Site Map
I. Specifying Objectives ~ II. Designing Alternatives ~III. Modeling Effects ~ IV. Synthesis

Version 1.0
Last updated: July 14, 2005