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III. Modeling Effects

Modeling Effects Specifying Objectives Designing Alternatives Synthesis This stage of CRAFT is designed to model and analyze the effects of the proposed alternatives. The end product is a comparative risk assessment that displays a range of possible outcomes for each alternative, and quantifies the probabilities and values associated with each outcome. This will allow an in-depth comparison of alternatives, recognizing the uncertainties that are inherent in natural resource management and planning.

Your analysis will examine the effects or impacts of the alternatives on selected measures. These measures should be directly linked to the objectives that were identified in the previous stage, Specifying Objectives.

 

PROCESS OVERVIEW

For a thorough analysis of effects, you should perform the following tasks. Further details can be found by following the embedded links.

  • Describe uncertainties and their sources that could influence the actual consequences.
  • Evaluate the information and data available to quantify relationships and improve predictions, including existing models or other decision-support tools. (See Resources for a discussion of data sources, vegetation models and fire models).
  • Agree on specific endpoints that link to lower-level objectives in the objectives hierarchy and specify measurement scales and thresholds of potential concern.
  • Develop one or more belief networks to describe the system of interest.
  • Using the belief networks, predict effects for each alternative, then identify effects that are not acceptable or are otherwise significant.
  • Consider returning to the Designing Alternatives stage to refine alternatives and/or consider improving portions of your effects model.

 

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