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Research Note

Title: Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Author: Scowcroft, Paul G.

Date: 1970

Source: Res. Note PSW-RN-201. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 6 p

Station ID: RN-PSW-201

Description: Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For probability forecasting to be used operationally, fire weather forecasters will need help in the necessary computations and some decision criteria for planning.

Keywords: fire weather, weather forecasting, mathematical expectation

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Citation

Scowcroft, Paul G.   1970.  Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial.   Res. Note PSW-RN-201. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 6 p.

Last Modified: Nov 18, 2013 12:43:35 PM