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General Technical Report
Title: Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure
Author: Bratten, Frederick W.
Source: USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PSW-066, 11 p.
Station ID: GTR-PSW-066
Description: A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized “fire management situations” are used to represent actual fire management areas. The model serves as the framework for the Fire Economics Evaluation System now being designed at the Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. Outputs from the model will consist of probability distributions for changes in resources caused by fire and for a measure of economic efficiency over a planning period.
Key Words: Fire Economics Evaluation System, fire economics, fire management, probability model
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Bratten, Frederick W. 1982. Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PSW-066, 11 p.