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Pacific Northwest Research Station
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-527 Outdoor recreation by Alaskans: projections for 2000 through 2020
Outdoor recreation participation and consumption by Alaska residents are analyzed and projected to 2020. Both the rate of participation and the intensity of participation in nearly all outdoor recreation activities are higher among Alaskans than for residents of other states. Projections based on economic and demographic trends indicate that current patterns are likely to continue, and demand for outdoor recreation among Alaskans will keep pace with projected increases in population. Activities with the highest participation rates per capita are viewing birds and wildlife, scenic driving, off-road driving, biking, and fishing. Participation in outdoor recreation is generally greater for activities that require little skill and are inexpensive, with the possible exception of fishing. The fastest growing outdoor recreation activities in Alaska are “adventure” activities such as backpacking, biking, and tent camping. However, activities such as scenic driving, viewing wildlife, RV camping, and fishing will continue to grow. Thus, the roads and waterways of Alaska will continue to be heavily used for outdoor recreation.
Keywords: Alaska, recreation, recreation trends, Chugach National Forest.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-523 Forest health restoration in south-central Alaska: a problem analysis by Darrell W. Ross, Gary E. Daterman, Jerry L. Boughton, and Thomas M. Quigley
A spruce beetle outbreak of unprecedented size and intensity killed most of the spruce trees on millions of acres of forest land in south-central Alaska in the 1990s. The tree mortality is affecting every component of the ecosystem, including the socioeconomic culture dependent on the resources of these vast forests. Based on information obtained through workshops and outreach to resource managers and diverse stakeholders, we have developed priority issues for restoring the land. Wildfire is a major issue, particularly the wildland-urban interface areas around Anchorage and on the Kenai Peninsula. The tasks of land managers are integrative and multidisciplinary and involve many science-related issues. They primarily revolve around the problem of how to reduce risk of wildfire and ensure reforestation in ways that will accommodate the needs for wildlife habitat, maintain healthy hydrologic conditions, and generally conserve ecological values for the future. The research approach outlines a "what if" scenario of management options based on levels of investment and targets for restoration. Modeling and visualization research would provide previews of future conditions based on levels of investment, selected landscapes, and the desired conditions selected among restoration options.
Keywords: Ecosystem health, forest health, ecosystem restoration, Alaska, south-central Alaska, wildfire, spruce beetle, wildfire habitat, hydrology, urban forestry.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-522 Assessment of the lumber drying industry and current potential for value-added processing in Alaska.
An assessment was done of the lumber drying industry in Alaska. Part 1 of the assessment included an evaluation of kiln capacity, kiln type, and species dried, by geographic region of the state. Part 2 of the assessment considered the value added potential associated with lumber drying. Various costs related to lumber drying were evaluated in an Excel spreadsheet. About 2.2 million board feet of lumber per year is currently being dried in Alaska, over 90 percent of which is softwoods. Total installed kiln capacity is about 94 thousand board feet. On a board-foot basis, lumber drying premiums and profitability were most influenced by species dried (whether softwoods or hardwoods) and not as strongly influenced by geographic location or type of kiln used.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-521 Fuzzy logic knowledge bases in integrated landscape assessment: examples and possibilities
The literature on ecosystem management has articulated the need for integration across disciplines and spatial scales, but convincing demonstrations of integrated analysis to support ecosystem management are lacking. This paper focuses on integrated ecological assessment because ecosystem management fundamentally is concerned with integrated management, which presupposes integrated analysis. Knowledge-based solutions are particularly relevant to ecosystem management because the topic is conceptually broad and complex and involves many abstract concepts whose assessment depends on many interdependent states and processes. Logic constructs are useful in this context because the problem can be evaluated as long as the entities and their logical relations are understood in a general way and can be expressed by subject matter authorities. As an example, ecosystem management decision-support system provides a formal logic framework for integrated analysis across multiple problem domains, has the ability to reason with incomplete information, and assists with optimizing the conduct of assessments by setting priorities on missing data. Most significant, however, is the possibility that knowledge-based reasoning could readily be extended to networks of knowledge bases that provide logical specifications for integrated analysis across spatial scales.
Keywords: Knowledge base, fuzzy logic, hierarchy, network, integration, ecosystem management, ecological assessment, landscape analysis.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-520 Second proceedings of IUFRO Division five research group 5.12 by R. James Barbour and Andrew H. H. Wong, tech. eds.
The Sustainable Production of Forest Products Research Group 5.12 of IUFRO Division 5 was chartered in response to interest demonstrated by delegates at the 1997 all Division 5 Congress in Pullman, Washington USA. The group's charter emphasizes research on local, regional, and global issues regarding sustainability produced forest products. The purpose of the Research Group is to provide a forum for researchers who study the sustainable production of wood and other forest products. The group is intended to increase the awareness of Division 5 members in issues concerning sustainable forestry and to foster interactions between Division 5 members and other IUFRO Divisions or other organizations with an interest in sustainable forestry. The scope of topics addressed by this group will include but not be limited to questions regarding certification of production, life cycle analysis, characteristics and quality of wood products from sustainably managed forests and the economic contribution of wood products to sustainable forestry.
Keywords: Sustainable forest management, wood products, forest certification, ecosystem management.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-518 Understanding the social acceptability of natural resource decisionmaking processes by using a knowledge base modeling approach by Christina Kakoyannis, Bruce Shindler, and George Stankey
Natural resource managers are being confronted with increasing conflict and litigation with those who find their management plans unacceptable. Compatible and sustainable management decisions necessitate that natural resource agencies generate plans that are not only biologically possible and economically feasible but also socially acceptable. Currently, however, we lack a framework to integrate socially acceptable judgments with the biological and economic factors that help define successful forest management plans. This research examines the ability of a knowledge base approach to assess the social acceptability of natural resource decisionmaking processes and to determine its suitability for use in forest management planning. We note four main caveats with using knowledge bases for evaluating social acceptability: (1) the importance of asking and answering the right question, (2) the ability of the knowledge base to become a “black box,” (3) problems associated with using a numerical value to estimate a concept as complex as social acceptability, (4) and our incomplete understanding of the factors that influence social acceptability judgments. Acknowledging the caveats, however, can make the knowledge base model a useful tool in forest management planning. We determined that knowledge bases can account for various factors affecting social acceptability and can facilitate discussions about the compatibility and links among social, biological, and economic decision factors.
Keywords: Social acceptability, forest management, decisionmaking, public participation, knowledge base.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-517 Economic and environmental effects of accelerated tariff liberalization in the forest products sector by D.J. Brooks, J.A. Ferrante, J. Haverkamp [and others]
This study assesses the incremental economic and environmental impacts resulting from changes in the timing and scope of forest products tariff reductions as proposed in the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization (ATL) initiative in forest products. This initiative was proposed for agreement among member countries of the World Trade Organization. The analysis of environmental effects focuses on possible changes in timber harvest, in the United States and worldwide, and rests directly on an analysis of the economic (trade, production, and consumption) effects of the initiative. The analysis is based on four sources of information: (1) simulation results using large-scale forest products sector and trade models, (2) literature describing analysis of the general effects of tariffs and tariff changes on forest products trade, and (4) a review and assessment of information provided through public comments on the initiative. The ATL initiative likely will have no distinguishable impacts on aggregate U.S. timber harvest; the initiative is likely to modify the composition of products manufactured from timber harvested in the United States. United States consumption of most forest products is projected to change by less than 1 percent as a consequence of the ATL. At the world scale, the ATL is projected to increase aggregate world trade in forest products by a maximum of 2 percent. World timber harvest is projected to increase by about 0.5 percent because of the ATL, and aggregate world production and consumption of forest products are projected to increase by less than 1 percent.
Keywords: Trade, trade policy, ATL, forest products, supply and demand.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-516 Atlas of social and economic conditions and change in southern California by Terry L. Raettig, Dawn M. Elmer, Harriet H. Christensen.
Keywords: Social-economic assessment, southern California, social and economic indicators, GIS, atlas, regional scale, county scale.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-515 A research framework for natural resource-based communities in the Pacific Northwest by Harriet H. Christensen and Ellen M. Donoghue
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station developed a problem analysis to direct the research on natural resource-based communities in the Pacific Northwest over the next 5 years. The problem analysis identifies four problem areas: (1) social values related to rural peoples, communities, and development, and their ties to resource management are largely unknown; (2) traditional concepts of rurality do not reflect the complex, varied socioeconomic structures of today's rural places and peoples; (3) the theories, models, and practices of collaborative stewardship as they relate to ecosystem management are largely unknown; and (4) patterns, processes, causes, and effects of socioeconomic change across communities and regions of the Pacific Northwest are poorly understood.
Keywords: Rural development, rural communities, research and development, social values, socioeconomic well-being, Pacific Northwest, natural resource management, Montreal Process criteria and indicators.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-514 Analysts guide: TreeVal for WIndows. Version 2.0 by R.D. Fight, J.T. Chmelik, and E.A. Coulter
TreeVal for Windows provides financial information and analysis to support silvicultural decisions in coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). It integrates the effect of growth and yield, management costs, harvesting costs, product and mill type, manufacturing costs, product prices, and product grade premiums. Output files from the ORGANON growth and yield simulator can be read directly into TreeVal. All management actions, including pruning, are supported. Results, including product recovery information, net value, and financial analysis of silvicultural regimes, are available in both tabular and graphical forms to facilitate comparison of alternative regimes and sensitivity analysis with prices, costs, and other assumptions.
Keywords: Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii, computer programs, software, computer applications, forestry, forest valuation, product recovery, ecosystem management.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-513 Special forests products: species information guide for the Pacific Northwest by Nan C. Vance, Melissa Borsting, David Pilz, and Jim Freed
This guide is a collection of information about economically important vascular and nonvascular plants and fungi found in the Pacific Northwest that furnish special forest products. Many of these plants and fungi are also found in Alaska, northern Idaho, and western Montana. They contribute to many botanical, floral, woodcraft, and decorative industries and to the rapidly growing medicinal, herbal, and natural foods industries. Internet commerce has made these products available to consumers worldwide and expanded interest in medicinal plants, decorative floral products, and edible wild fruits and mushrooms. This guide provides a consolidated information resource that briefly describes biological, ecological attributes of over 60 plants and fungi, and their wild harvest methods, alternatives to wild harvest, and uses. The harvest techniques described in the guide are based on the recommendations of experienced harvesters and experts who have worked with these botanical resources and support sustainable practices. Information for this guide was gathered from various documents and other sources. The technical areas of expertise consulted spanned a wide range of knowledge including plant biological and ecological sciences, ethnobotany, horticulture, mycology, and forest ecology.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-512 Invertebrates of the Columbia River basin assessment area by Christine G. Niwa, Roger E. Sandquist, Rod Crawford [and others]
A general background on functional groups of invertebrates in the Columbia River basin and how they affect sustainability and productivity of their ecological communities is presented. The functional groups include detritivores, predators, pollinators, and grassland and forest herbivores. Invertebrate biodiversity and species of conservation interest are discussed. Effects of management practices on wildlands and suggestions to mitigate them are presented. Recommendations for further research and monitoring are given.
Keywords: Nutrient cycling, detritivory, predation, pollination, herbivory, bacteria, fungi, nematodes (roundworms), arachnids (spiders and scorpions), insects, gastropods (snails and slugs), oligochaetes (earthworms), invertebrate biodiversity.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-511 Recreation and tourism in south-central Alaska: synthesis of recent trends and prospects by David J. Brooks and RIchard W. Haynes
Tourism has been the fastest growing component of Alaska's economy for the past decade and is an important export sector for the regional economy. Opportunities to participate in outdoor recreation are also an important component of the quality of life for residents of Alaska. Successful planning for the Chugach National Forest, therefore, will require an understanding of (1) recreation and tourism as an economic sector, (2) factors contributing to growth in recreational activity in south-central Alaska, and (3) prospective future levels and types of demand for recreation. By using a sectoral analysis framework, various data sources reveal similar trends and patterns of activity. Recreation demand models, based on cross-sectional data, illustrate the importance of demographic and economic factors as determinants of demand. Implications for management and planning include the need to understand whether and when management actions to increase the recreation services on forested landscapes conflict with other management objectives, such as maintaining or enhancing wildlife habitat.
Recreation and tourism in south-central Alaska likely will continue to grow, although future growth rates may be slower than those in the early 1900s. Although the demographic and economic characteristics of the population of Anchorage are similar to those of the lower 48, patterns of recreation (activities and frequency) differ across residents and nonresidents. Based on both recreation demand models and key respondent interviews, the fastest growth in demand likely will be in viewing wildlife and scenery and in "soft-adventure" activities that offer a combination of comfort and outdoor recreation-based excitement. The increasing importance of recreation and tourism presents challenges for communities as well as resource managers in Alaska.
Keywords: Alaska, Chugach National Forest, recreation, tourism, growth trends.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-510 Log and lumber grades as indicators of wood quality in 20- to 100-year-old Douglas-fir trees from thinned and unthinned stands by R. James Barbour and Dean L. Parry
This report examines the differences in wood characteristics found in coastal Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga mensziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees harvested at the age of 70 to 100 years old to wood characteristics of trees harvested at the age of 40 to 60 years. Comparisons of differences in domestic log grades suggest that the pro-portion of log volume in the higher grades (Special Mill and No. 2 Sawmill) increased with both stand age and tree size. Simulation of lumber grade yields based on log characteristics suggests that yields of higher grades of lumber increased until about age 60 to 70, and then leveled off over the rest of the age range examined in this analysis. We included structural lumber products in the analysis but not higher value appearance grade products, and some evidence suggests that yields of these products might have begun to increase in the oldest trees. The analysis also showed that the younger trees had larger branches and more juvenile wood, possibly because they had been grown in stands that received a higher level of early stand management than the older trees. If these young trees were grown to the ages of 70 to 100, they likely would not produce the same log and lumber grade yields found in the older trees we examined.
Keywords: Wood quality, log grade, lumber grade, thinning, Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii, ecosystem management, sustainable forestry.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-509 Forest roads: a synthesis of scientific information by Hermann Gucinski, Michael J. Furniss, Robert R. Ziemer, and Martha H. Brookes
Effects of roads in forested ecosystems span direct physical and ecological ones (such as geomorphic and hydrologic effects), indirect and landscape level ones (such as effects on aquatic habitat, terrestrial vertebrates, and biodiversity conservation), and socioeconomic ones (such as passive-use value, economic effects on development and range management). Road effects take place in the contexts of environmental settings, their history, and the state of engineering practices, and must be evaluated in those contexts for best management approaches.
Keywords: Roads, roadless areas, forest ecosystems, geomorphology, hydrology, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity, nonmarket values, heritage values, economic development, grazing, mineral resources, fires.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-508 MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water—technical documentation. Version 1.0 by Dominique Bachelet, James M. Lenihan, Christopher Daly, Ronald P. Neilson, Dennis S. Ojima, and William J. Parton
Assessments of vegetation response to climate change have generally been made only by equilibrium vegetation models that predict vegetation composition under steady-state conditions. These models do not simulate either ecosystem biogeochemical processes or changes in ecosystem structure that may, in turn, act as feedbacks in determining the dynamics of vegetation change. MC1 is a new dynamic global vegetation model created to assess potential impacts of global climate change on ecosystem structure and function at a wide range of spatial scales from landscape to global. This new tool allows us to incorporate transient dynamics and make real time predictions about the patterns of ecological change. MC1 was created by combining physiologically based biogeographic rules defined in the MAPSS model with a modified version of the biogeochemical model, CENTURY. MC1 also includes a fire module, MCFIRE, that mechanistically simulates the occurrence and impacts of fire events.
Keywords: MC1, model documentation, vegetation response, climate change, MAPSS, CENTURY, dynamic global vegetation model.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-507 Botanical survey of Myrtle Island Research Natural Area, Oregon by Ralph L. Thompson
Myrtle Island Research Natural Area, an 11.3-hectare island in the Umpqua River Valley of the Oregon Coast Range, was established in 1951 to preserve an old-growth stand of Umbellularia californica and scattered old-growth Pseudotsuga menziesii. This floristic study documented 363 specific and infraspecific taxa in 237 genera and 78 families. Of these species, 155 (42.7 percent) are naturalized exotics. Seventeen exotic or native species are listed as noxious weeds in Oregon. Vascular plants include 4 Equisetophyta, 8 Polypodiophyta, 2 Pinophyta, and 349 Magnoliophyta; 328 are annual, biennial, and perennial herbs, and 35 are woody vines, shrubs, and trees. The largest families in species richness are the Poaceae (50), Asteraceae (43), Fabaceae (29), Rosaceae (17), Cyperaceae (16), Scrophulariaceae (14), Caryophyllaceae (13), and Brassicaceae (13). This vascular plant survey provides a baseline reference for species richness, plant communities, generalized life forms, and relative abundance within Myrtle Island Research Natural Area.
Keywords: Vascular plants, plant communities, species richness, exotics, noxious weeds, old-growth forests, riparian forests, natural areas.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-506 Tourism and Natural Resource Management: a general overview of research and issues by Jeffrey D. Kline
In the recent years, growing awareness among tourism researchers of the relations between tourism and natural resource management has resulted in a substantial body of academic literature examining tourism issues under a relatively new set of tourism concepts. Seemingly new forms of tourism, such as nature-based tourism, ecotourism, and sustainable tourism, now are advocated as an environmentally safe basis for economic development in many rural locations worldwide. The USDA Forest Service has become interested in these new forms of tourism because of decreasing timber harvest and increasing recreation on national forest lands, and the resulting impacts of these changes on local economies. New forms of tourism are closely related to outdoor recreation, which has been a management objective of National Forests since their inception. This paper discusses the concepts of nature-based tourism, ecotourism, and sustainable tourism; provides a general overview of research and issues; and suggests potential areas for future research. The intent is to provide a general overview of existing literature to serve as a primer for researchers and policymakers initiating more thorough investigations of tourism and natural resource management.
Keywords: Nature-based tourism, ecotourism, sustainable development, outdoor recreation.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-504 Assessment of the competitive position of the forest products sector in southeast Alaska, 1985-94 by Guy C. Robertson and David J. Brooks
This paper provides an assessment of the competitive position of the forest products sector in southeast Alaska relative to that of its major competitors. An analytical framework relying on the economic concepts of comparative and competitive advantage is first developed, with emphasis on the relative cost and productivity of productive inputs such as labor, capital, and raw materials. The assessment is divided into three main components: (1) forest resource characteristics and production costs in the logging sector, (2) production costs in the sawmill sector, and (3) relative market position in end-product markets. Major competing regions are British Columbia in Canada and the states of Washington and Oregon in the United States. Japan's market for soft-wood saw logs and sawn wood is the focus of the end-market analysis. Data consistently indicate that southeast Alaska has been a high-cost producer of sawn-wood products operating at the margin of profitability over the assessment period. This is due to a combination of high labor costs on a per-unit-of-input basis and low productivity for labor inputs in both the logging and sawmill sectors, and for raw material inputs in the sawmill sector. Certain species and log grades, however, are capable of generating considerable profits, and the relation between average profitability for the sum total of harvests in southeast Alaska and the profitability of specific components of this harvest is analyzed. Implications for these findings for current efforts to promote increased value-added timber processing in southeast Alaska are discussed in the conclusion.
Keywords: Comparative advantage, labor productivity, timber scarcity, value added, stumpage prices.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-503 Ground-based photographic monitoring by Frederick C. Hall
Land management professionals (foresters, wildlife biologists, range managers, and land managers such as ranchers and forest land owners) often have need to evaluate their management activities. Photographic monitoring is a fast, simple, and effective way to determine if changes made to an area have been successful. Ground-based photo monitoring means using photographs taken at a specific site to monitor conditions or change. It may be divided into two systems: (1) comparison photos, whereby a photograph is used to compare a known condition with field conditions to estimate some parameter of the field condition; and (2) repeat photo-graphs, whereby several pictures are taken of the same tract of ground over time to detect change. Comparison systems deal with fuel loading, herbage utilization, and public reaction to scenery. Repeat photography is discussed in relation to land-scape, remote, and site-specific systems. Critical attributes of repeat photography are (1) maps to find the sampling location and of the photo monitoring layout; (2) documentation of the monitoring system to include purpose, camera and film, weather, season, sampling technique, and equipment; and (3) precise replication of photographs. Five appendices include (A) detailed instructions for photo sampling, (B) blank forms for field use, (C) specifications and photographs of recommended equipment, (D) filing system alternatives, and (E) suggestions for taking photo-graphs and analyzing change over time.
Keywords: Monitoring, photographs, landscapes, transects, animal sampling, riparian, succession, forests, rangeland.
Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-235 Production, prices, employment, and trade in Northwest forest industries, all quarters 1999 by Debra D. Warren
Provides current information on lumber and plywood production and prices; employment in the forest industries; international trade in logs, lumber, and plywood; volume and average prices of stumpage sold by public agencies; and other related items.
Keywords: Forestry business economics, lumber prices, plywood prices, timber volume, stumpage prices, employment (forest products industries), marketing (forest products), imports and exports (forest products).
Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-234 Summary estimates of forest resources on unreserved lands of the Chatham inventory unit, Tongass National Forest, southeast Alaska, 1998 by Willem W. S. van Hees
Summary estimates are presented of forest resource area, timber volume, and growth and mortality of timber on unreserved national forest land in the Chatham inventory unit of the Tongass National Forest. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis crews collected inventory data from 1995 to 2000. Productive forest land area (timberland) was estimated at 1,302 thousand acres, cubic-foot volume on timberland at 7,561 million cubic feet, and net annual growth and mortality at 31,613 and 28,341 thousand cubic feet, respectively.
Keywords: Forest surveys, timber resources, statistics (forest), Alaska (southeast), Chatham.
Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-233 Summary estimates of forest resources on unreserved lands of the Ketchikan inventory unit, Tongass National Forest, southeast Alaska, 1998 by Willem W. S. van Hees
Summary estimates are presented of forest resource area, timber volume, and growth and mortality of timber on unreserved national forest land in the Ketchikan inventory unit of the Tongass National Forest. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis crews collected inventory data from 1995 to 1998. Productive forest land area (timberland) was estimated at 1,405 thousand acres, cubic-foot volume on timberland at 7,294 million cubic feet, and net annual growth and mortality at 14,158 and 49,568 thousand cubic feet, respectively.
Keywords: Forest surveys, timber resources, statistics (forest), Alaska (southeast), Ketchikan.
Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-232 Summary estimates of forest resources on unreserved lands of the Stikine inventory unit, Tongass National Forest, Southeast Alaska, 1998 by Willem W. S. van Hees
Summary estimates are presented of forest resource area, timber volume, and growth and mortality of timber on unreserved national forest land in the Stikine inventory unit of the Tongass National Forest. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, crews collected inventory data from 1995 to 1998. Productive forest land area (timberland) was estimated at 1,158 thousand acres, cubic-foot volume on timberland at 6,222 million cubic feet, and net annual growth and mortality at 11,003 and 50,426 thousand cubic feet, respectively.
Keywords: Forest surveys, timber resources, statistics (forest), Alaska (southeast), Stikine.
Res. Note PNW-RN-531 Ecological and financial of late-successional reserve management by Susan Stevens Hummel, R. James Barbour, Paul F. Hessburg, and John F. Lehmkuhl.
This paper documents methods for assessing the potential effects of variable-intensity management in late-successional reserves (LSRs) and provides an example (the Gotchen LSR) from the Cascade Range in eastern Washington. The Gotchen LSR study investigates changes in forest vegetation associated with silvicultural treatments, and how different treatment combinations may affect landscape patterns, LSR habitat objectives, fire hazard, and the characteristics and value of wood removed over space and time. The study contributes to the conceptual and technical development of a decision-analysis tool, the northeastern Cascades landscape analysis, management, and monitoring system (NOCLAMMS), for land management. Landscape evaluation of the Gotchen LSR reveals that since the 1930s, forest structures have become more homogeneous; area and average patch size of young, multistoried forest stands have decreased; and spatial patterns of late-successional forest have changed. These changes alter vegetation response to disturbances like fires, insects, and diseases, and suggest that different structures and patterns may better support LSR objectives over space and time. Study results aid in identifying candidate treatment areas, in developing prescriptions to maintain or restore desired stand structures and patterns, and in understanding the financial commitment necessary for different management actions. Silvicultural treatments are applied by using the forest vegetation simulator (FVS). The financial evaluation of ecosystem management activities (FEEMA) software is used to calculate net revenues associated with different treatments. Results from one stand illustrate these methods.
Keywords: Forest reserves, northern spotted owl, restoration silviculture, habitat management, western spruce budworm, fire hazard.
Res. Note PNW-RN-529 A method for measuring sediment production from forest roads by Keith Kahklen
Predicting sediment production from forest roads is necessary to determine their impact on watersheds and associated terrestrial and stream biota. A method is presented for measuring sediment originating from a road segment for individual storm events and quantifying the delivery to streams. Site selection criteria are listed to describe the characteristics for efficient data collection and analysis. The method describes equip-ment used to quantify sediment transport—data loggers, a rain gage, a traffic counter, Parshall flumes with stilling wells, hydrostatic pressure transducers, and water pumping samplers—as well as variables associated with sediment production—road surfacing material, traffic intensity, gradient, age, construction method, and precipitation. A sam-pling protocol that worked well for the forest roads in southeast Alaska and can be adapted for use in other regions also is described. Examples of data collection and analysis are explained both for sites near the road and downstream sites for sediment delivery quantification. This method can be used to determine the downstream trans-port of sediment originating from roads and developing regression models or validating existing sediment models.
Keywords: Road erosion, sediment, forest roads, sediment transport.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-539 Avian and amphibian use of fenced and unfenced stock ponds in northeastern Oregon forests by Evelyn L. Bull, Jerry W. Deal, and Janet E. Hohmann.
The abundance of birds and amphibian larvae was compared between fenced and unfenced stock ponds in 1993 to determine if fencing improved the habitat for these species in northeastern Oregon. Stock ponds that were fenced had significantly higher densities of bird species, guilds, and taxonomic groups than stock ponds that were unfenced. No differences in the relative abundance of larvae of Pacific treefrogs (Pseudacris regilla) or long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum) were found between fenced and unfenced ponds. Fencing at least a portion of stock ponds in forested areas provides habitat for a greater diversity and abundance of birds.
Keywords: Amphibians, birds, livestock grazing, northeastern Oregon, stock ponds.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-535 Bird, mammal, and vegetation community surveys of research natural areas in the Tongass National Forest. by W.P. Smith, M.J. Stotts, B.A. Andres, J.M. Melton, A. Garibaldi, and K. Boggs
In June 1977, we surveyed seven research natural areas (RNAs) in the Tongass National Forest (Tongass). We documented the composition of biotic communities using rare plant and tidal community surveys, targeted searches for rare animals, and samples of permanent vegetation plots. Birds were sampled once along each transect with 10-minute point counts at stations 8 through 11 spaced at 250-m intervals. A total of 84 point-count stations was classified according to plant association. Mammals were sampled for two nights along the initial 1.25-km segment of each transect by establishing trap stations at 10-m intervals. Each trap station had two traps, totaling 250 traps (500 trap/nights of effort) per transect: two snap traps, a snap trap and a folding live-trap, or a snap-trap and a cone pitfall trap. We documented 31 vascular plant species previously unconfirmed for RNAs on the Tongass. Breeding status and relative abundance of 65 bird species were recorded; 331 small mammals representing six species were captured with an additional five species documented from visual observations or physical evidence. Coordinated, community surveys are efficient in documenting elements of biological diversity and should receive consideration as an inventory protocol or for monitoring ecosystem integrity. Community surveys of RNAs provide an important benchmark.
Keywords: Biodiversity, birds, mammals, plant associations, research natural area, southeast Alaska, Tongass National Forest.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-533 Detecting response of Douglas-fir plantations to urea fertilizer at three locations in the Oregon Coast Range by Richard E. Miller, Jim Smith, and Harry Anderson
Fertilizer trials in coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in the Oregon Coast Range usually indicate small and statistically nonsignificant response to nitrogen (N) fertilizers. Inherently weak experimental designs of past trials could make them too insensitive to detect growth differences that actually exist. Ability to detect real differences among treatments should be improved by having more than two replications per treatment and by using covariance analysis to adjust observed treatment means for unequal starting conditions among experimental treatments. TO demonstrate these assumptions, we used size at fertilization and a prefertilization (calibration) period of growth as covariates when analyzing data from five coastal plantations. The trials had three to six replications per treatment and calibration periods of 6 or 7 years. Nitrogen fertilizer was assigned randomly to half the plots at each location when trees were 16 or 17 years old from seed. Our objectives were to quantify 4- or 7-year response to N fertilizer and to demonstrate practical means for detecting response. Effects of fertilization on tree diameter and height, and on basal area and volume growth per acre were estimated. Among the five nonthinned plantations, observed gross basal area growth was changed by -2 to 13 percent in the 4 or 7 years after fertilization. Observed responses were increased substantially by covariance analyses at some plantations but decreased at others. Random assignment of three to six plots per treatment did not ensure balanced or comparable plots for fertilized and nonfertilized treatments.
Keywords: Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii, nitrogen, fertilization, urea, tree growth, stand growth.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-532 Precision, accuracy, and efficiency of four tools for measuring soil bulk density or strength by Richard E. Miller, John Hazard, and Steven Howes
Monitoring soil compaction is time consuming. A desire for speed and lower costs, however, must be balanced with the appropriate precision and accuracy required of the monitoring task. We compared three core samplers and a cone penetrometer for measuring soil compaction after clearcut harvest on a stone-free and a stony soil. Precision (i.e., consistency) of each tool at depths of 0-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm was determined from two adjacent samples at 21 or more sampling points in each harvested location. Because one bulk density (Db) sampler provided a continuous sample of each decimeter depth, it was designated as the standard; thereby, the relative accuracy and bias of the two shorter core samplers could be calculated. Both shorter samplers overestimated Db as determined by the standard. At least 15 penetrometer samples could be taken and processed in the time required for three Db samples to the same 30-cm depth. Precision of measurements was taken by the core penetrometer, however was clearly less than that with any of the Db samplers. Based on time requirements and precision of each tool, we examined the efficiency of double sampling (using a combination of penetrometer and core sampler) for estimating Db. Results from the stone-free soil indicated an advantage in both precision and efficiency in applying double-sampling theory to estimate Db rather than sampling exclusively by the more time-consuming core samplers.
Keywords: Bulk density, measurement precision, relative accuracy, core penetrometer, soil strength.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-531 The future of housing in the United States: an econometric model and long-term predictions for the 2000 RPA timber assessment by Claire A. Montgomery
This paper reports a structural model of the U.S. housing sector that was used to generate the key housing assumptions used in the 2000 Resources Planning Act timber assessment: number of households, improvement expenditure, and square footage of new residential construction by unit type. Assuming average annual population growth of 0.77 percent and real income growth of 1.99 percent, the model predicts 1.30 percent average annual growth in housing investment. compared to 2.04 percent annual growth since 1952. The allocation between new construction and home improvement remains fairly constant at about 56 percent and 44 percent, respectively. Scenario analysis was used to test sensitivity of the predictions to key macroeconomic assumptions.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-530 Historical trends and projections of land use for the South-Central United States by SoEun Ahn, Andrew J. Plantinga, and Ralph J. Alig
This report presents historical trends and future projections of forest, agricultural, and urban and other land uses for the South-Central United States. A land use share model is used to investigate the relation between the areas of land in alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Two different versions of the empirical model are estimated, depending on the stumpage price series used to calculate net returns from forest land: model 1 uses sawtimber prices and model 2 uses pulpwood price series. This leads to two sets of land use projections. We found that landowners are more responsive to changes in pulpwood prices than to those in sawtimber prices. The fitted econometric models were used to generate projections of future land use to 2050, given the projections on population and assuming 0.5-percent annual stumpage price increases. Although there were differences in magnitudes of changes, both sets of projections showed the same general trends of land use allocations over the next 50 years. The category urban and other land continuously increases owing to population growth, and timberland expands owing to assumed stumpage price increases. Agricultural land declines to compensate for the amount of increases of timberland and urban and other land.
Keywords: Land use, Resource Planning Act assessment, projections (forest area), land rents.
Res. Pap. PNW-RP-528 A spatial model of land use change for western Oregon and western Washington by Jeffrey D. Kline, Ralph J. Alig
We developed an empirical model describing the probability that forests and farmland in western Oregon and western Washington were developed for residential, commercial, or industrial uses during a 30-year period, as a function of spatial socioeconomic variables, ownership, and geographic and physical land characteristics. The empirical model is based on a conceptual framework of landowners maximizing the present value of the future stream of net returns derived from various land uses. The empirical model is used to compute indices representing 50-year projections of future land use and timberland area change in western Oregon and western Washington for the Resource Planning Act assessment, and to identify counties in the study region where potential reductions in timberland area could be greatest. Results suggest that conversion of forest and farmland to urban uses will most likely occur on lands closer to existing population centers, and rate of conversion will increase with the size of those population centers. Relatively modest reductions in the area of timberland due to conversion to urban uses are projected for western Oregon and western Washington, with the greatest reductions occurring on nonindustrial private forest land.
Keywords: Land use change, urban sprawl, spatial models.
US Forest Service - Pacific Northwest Research Station