Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study

MAPSS Home > Research > USFSRPA

Research

U.S. Forest Service, Resource Planning Act

Overview

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 directed the Secretary of Agriculture to prepare a renewable resources assessment in 1975 with updates in 1979 and each 10th year thereafter. These assessments are to include "an analysis of present and anticipated uses, demand for, and supply of the renewable resources, with consideration of the international resource situation, and an emphasis of pertinent supply, demand and price relationships trends."

As part of this assessment, the MAPSS team has been involved in simulating possible changes in resource distribution owing to climate change in the United States.

Results

Results from MAPSS and other biogeographical models illustrate possible changes in vegetation distribution owing to climate change: (1) boreal forests and taiga-tundra regions are predicted to move northward at the expense of the tundra; (2) warmer scenarios produce the largest impacts on the boreal forest, but are also responsible for forest dieback in the conterminous United States; (3) northwest and southwest forests might initially expand, then later contract in area; and, (4) southwestern desert species may move into the Great Basin region. The choice of climate change scenario and the treatment of CO₂ effects in each model strongly influence the simulations and the uncertainty in them. Results may indicate the direction of the possible change but should not be taken as solid predictions. Disturbance regimes will be affected by climate change but are difficult to simulate and also affect the outcome of the models. Moreover, important factors such as grazing, weed invasions, diseases and pests, and changes in land use could drastically alter the response of the vegetation to climatic changes.

Potential U.S. forest distribution under doubled CO2 climate, with altered water use efficiency (WUE); Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) scenario	Potential U.S. forest distribution under doubled CO2 climate, with altered water use efficiency (WUE); Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) scenario
Potential Western U.S. forest distribution under doubled CO2 climate, with altered water use efficiency (WUE); Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) scenario	Potential Western U.S. forest distribution under doubled CO2 climate, with altered water use efficiency (WUE); Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) scenario
	Potential Pacific Northwest forest distribution under doubled CO2 climate, with altered water use efficiency (WUE); Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) scenario

References

Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R. 2000. Biome redistribution under climate change. In: Gen. Tech. Rep. GTR-RMRS-059. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: 18-44.

Neilson, R.; Chaney, J. 1997. Potential changes in the vegetation distribution in the United States. In: Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-GTR-237. Newton Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 66-80.

US Forest Service - Pacific Northwest Research Station, Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Last Modified: Monday, 17 March 2008 at 13:20:10 EDT