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MAPSS Home > Publications by year
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List Publications By Author
2010
Gonzalez, P.;
Neilson, R.P.; Lenihan, J.M.; Drapek, R.J. 2010. Global patterns
in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate
change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19:755-768.
2009
Blate, G.M.; Joyce, L.A.;
Littell, J.S.; McNulty, S.G.; Millar, C.I.; Moser, S.C.; Neilson,
R.P.; O'Halloran, K.; Peterson, D.L. 2009. Adapting to climate change
in United States national forests. Unasylva 60 (231/232): 57-62.
Cary, G.M.; Flannigan, M.D.; Keane, R.E.; Bradstock, R.A.; Davies,
I.D.; Lenihan, J.M.; Li, C.; Logan, K.A.; Parsons, R.A. 2009. Relative
importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for
area burned: evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models.
International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 147-156.
Joyce,L.A.; Blate,G.M.; McNulty, S.G.; Millar, C.I.; Moser,S.; Neilson,
R.P.; Peterson, D.L. 2009. Managing for multiple resources under
climate change: National forests. Environmental Management 44:1022-1032.
2008
Bachelet,D., J. Lenihan, R. Drapek, and R.Neilson. 2008VEMAP vs
VINCERA: A DGVM sensitivity to differences in climate scenarios.Global
and Planetary Change 64 (2008) 38–48.
Del Grosso, S. J., W. G. Parton, T. Stohlgren, D. Zheng, D. Bachelet,
S. Prince, K. Hibbard, and R. Olson. 2008. Global potential net
primary production predicted from vegetation class, precipitation,
and temperature. Ecology 89:2117-2126.
Lenihan, J. M., D. Bachelet, R. P. Neilson, and R. Drapek. 2008.
Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and
fire to climate change scenarios for California. Climatic Change
87:S215-S230.
Lenihan, J. M., D. Bachelet, R. P. Neilson, and R. Drapek. 2008.Simulated
response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change
at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and
growth response to CO2. Global and Planetary Change 64(1-2):16-25.
2007
Keane, R. E., G. J. Cary, I. D. Davies, M. D. Flannigan, R. H. Gardner,
S. Lavorel, J. M. Lenihan, C. Li, and T. S. Rupp. 2007. Understanding
global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models
of vegetation and fire. Pages 139-148 in J. G. Canadell, D. E. Pataki,
and L. F. Pitelka editors. Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing
World. Springer Verlag, Berlin.
Lenihan, J. M., R. Drapek, and R. Neilson. 2007. Terrestrial ecosystem
changes. Pages 60-85 in J. B. Smith, and R. Mendelsohn editors.
The impact of climate change on regional systems. Edward Elgar,
Cheltenham, UK.
2006
Cary, G.; Keane, R.; Gardner, R.; Lavorel, S.; Flannigan, M.; Davies,
I.; Liu, C.; Lenihan, J.; Rupp, T.; Mouillot, F. 2006. Comparison
of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation
in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology.
21: 121-137.
Lenihan, J. M., R. Drapek, and R. Neilson. 2006. Terrestrial ecosystem
changes. Pages 60-85 in J. B. Smith, and R. Mendelsohn editors.
The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems: A Comprehensive
Analysis of California. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
Malcolm, J.; Liu, C.; Neilson, R.; Hansen, L.; Hannah, L. 2006.
Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity
hotspots. Conservation Biology. 20(2): 538-548.
Millar, C., R. P. Neilson, D. Bachelet, R. J. Drapek, and J. M.
Lenihan. 2006. Climate change at multiple scales. Pages 31-61 in
Forests, Carbon and Climate Change: A Synthesis of Science Findings.
Oregon Forest Resources Institute.
Wiedinmyer, C.; Ti, X.; Guenther, A.; Neilson, R.; Granier, C. 2006.
Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: How might they affect
regional and global atmospheric chemistry? Earth Interactions. 10(3):
1-9.
2005
Bachelet D.; Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R.; Drapek, R.; Kittel, T. 2005.
Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes
to climatic variability in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Forest Research.
35: 2073-2293.
Calkin, D.; Gebert, K.; Jones, J.; Neilson, R. 2005 Forest Service
large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970-2002.
Journal of Forestry. 103(4): 179-183.
Neilson, R.; Pitelka, L.; Solomon, A.; Nathan, R.; Midgley, G.;
Fragoso, J.; Lischke, H.; Thompson, K. 2005. Forecasting regional
to global plant migration in response to climate change. BioScience.
55(9): 749-759.
2004
Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R. 2004. Regional
differences in the carbon source-sink potential of natural vegetation
in the U.S.A. Environmental. Management 33(Supplement 1): S23-S43.
Daly, C.; Gibson, W.; Doggett, M.; Smith, J.; Taylor G. 2004. Up-to-date
monthly climate maps for the conterminous United States. Proceedings,
14th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology. Seattle, WA: American
Meteorological Society: 1-8.
Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.; Frumhoff, P.; Maurer, E.; Miller,
N.; Moser, S.; Schneider, S.; Cahill, K.; Cleland, E.; Dale, L.;
Davis, F.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, W.; Kalkstein, L.; Lenihan, J.;
Lunch, C.; Neilson, R.; Sheridan, S.; Verville, J. 2004. Emissions
pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences. 101(34): 12422-12427.
Keane, R.; Cary, G.; Davies, I.; Flannigan, M.; Gardner, R.; Lavorel,
S.; Lenihan, J.; Liu, C.; Rupp, T. 2004. A classification of landscape
fire succession models: spatial simulations for fire and vegetation
dynamics. Ecological Modelling. 179: 3-27.
Kittel, T.; Rosenbloom, N.; Royle, J.; Daly, C.; Gibson, W.; Fisher,
H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown,
R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.; VEMAP2 Participants. 2004. VEMAP
Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century)
climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous
USA. Climate Research. 27: 151-170.
Neilson, R. 2004. Projecting potential landscape dynamics: issues
and challenges. In: Gucinski, H.; Miner, C.; Bittner, B., eds. Proceedings:
views from the ridge—considerations for planning at the landscape
scale. PNW-GTR-596. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 42-47.
2003
Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.; Hickler, T.; Drapek, R.; Lenihan, J.;
Sykes, M.; Smith, B.; Sitch, S.; Thonicke, K. 2003. Simulating past
and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 17(2): 14-1—14-21.
Lenihan J.; Drapek R.; Bachelet D.; Neilson R. 2003. Climate change
effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California.
Ecological Applications. 13, 1667-1681.
Marland, G.; Pielke, R.; Apps, M.; Avissar, R.; Betts, R.; Davis,K.;
Frumhoff, P.; Jackson, S.; Joyce, L.; Kauppi, P.; Katzenberger,
J.; MacDicken, K.; Neilson, R.; Niles, J.; Niyogi, D.; Norby, R.;
Pena, N.; Sampson, N.; Xue,Y. 2003. The climatic impacts of land
surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change
mitigation policy. Climate Policy. 3: 149-157.
Neilson, R. 2003. The importance of precipitation seasonality in
controlling vegetation distribution. In Weltzin, J.; McPherson,
G., eds. Changing precipitation regimes and terrestrial ecosystems:
a North American perspective. Phoenix, AZ: The University of Arizona
Press: 47-71.
2002
Luo, T.; Neilson, R.; Tian, H.; Vorosmarty, C.; Zhu, H.; Liu, S.
2002. A model for seasonality and distribution of leaf area index
of forests and its application to China. Journal of Vegetation Science.
13: 817-830. (PDF) — (Appendix)
2001
Aber, J.; Neilson, R.; McNulty, S.; Lenihan, J.; Bachelet, D.; Drapek,
R. 2001. Forest processes and global environmental change: predicting
the effect of individual and multiple stressors. 2000. BioScience.
51(9): 735-751.
Bachelet, D.; Lenihan, J.; Daly, C.; Neilson, R.; Ojima, D.; Parton,
W. 2001. MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution
of vegetation and associated ecosystem fluxes of carbon, nutrients,
and water. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-508. Portland, OR: U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station:
95.
Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; 2001. Climate
change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the
United States. Ecosystems. 4: 164-185.
Dale, V.; Joyce, L.; McNulty, S.; Neilson, R.; Ayres, M.; Flannigan,
M.; Hanson, P.; Irland, L.; Lugo, A.; Peterson, C.; Simberloff,
D.; Swanson, F.; Stocks, B.; Wotton, B. 2001. Climate change and
forest disturbance. BioScience. 51(9): 723-734.
Hansen, A.; Neilson, R.; Dale, V.; Flather, C.; Iverson, L.; Currie,
D.; Shafer, S.; Cook, R.; Bartlein, P. 2001. Global change in forests:
responses of species, communities, and biomes. BioScience. 51(9):
765-779.
Joyce, L.; Baer, J.; McNulty, S.; Dale, V.; Hansen, A.; Irland,
L.; Neilson, R.; Skog, K. 2001. Potential consequences of climate
variability and change for the forests of the United States. In:
Climate change impacts in the United States. Report for the U.S.
Global Change Research Program. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University
Press: 489-521. (PDF) — (Color
figures PDF)
Malcolm, J.; Markham, A.; Neilson, R. 2001. Can species keep up
with climate change? Conservation Biology in Practice. 2(2): 24-25.
2000
Bachelet, D.; Daly, C.; Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R.; Parton, W.; Ojima,
D. 2000. Interactions between fire, grazing, and climate change
at Wind Cave National Park, SD. Ecological Modelling. 134: 229-244.
Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R. 2000. Biome redistribution under climate
change. In: Joyce, L.; Birdsey, R., eds. The impact of climate change
on America's forests. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-59. U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Forest Service. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain
Research Station: 18-44.
Dale, V.; Joyce, L.; McNulty, S.; Neilson, R. 2000. The interplay
between climate change, forests, and disturbance. Science of the
Total Environment. 262(3): 201-204.
Daly, C.; Bachelet, D.; Lenihan, J.; Parton, W.; Neilson, R.; Ojima,
D. 2000. Dynamic simulation of tree-grass interactions for global
change studies. Ecological Applications. 10(2): 449-469.
Jackson, R.; Schenk, H.; Jobbagy, E.; Canadell, J.; Colello, G.;
Dickinson, R.; Dunne, T.; Field, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Heimann,
M.; Hibbard, K.; Kicklighter, D.; Kleidon, A.; Neilson, R.; Parton,
W.; Sala, O.; Sykes, M. 2000. Belowground consequences of vegetation
change and its treatment in models. Ecological Applications. 10(2):
470-483. [abstract]
Lenihan, J.; Sandberg, D.; Neilson, R. 2000. Linking a dynamic vegetation
model with the National Fuels Characterization System. In: Neuenschwander,
L.; Ryan, K., eds. Crossing the millennium: integrating spatial
technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management.
Moscow, ID: University of Idaho. 288-289.
Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Bachelet, D. 2000. Overview of dynamic
global vegetation models. In: Hawkes, B.; Flannigan, M.; eds. Landscape
fire modeling—challenges and opportunities. Victoria, BC: Canadian
Forest Service Information Report NOR-X-371. 3-4.
Schimel, D.; Melillo, J.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.; Kicklighter, D.;
Kittel, T; Rosenbloom, N.; Running, S.; Thornton, P.; Ojima, D.;
Parton, W.; Kelly, R.; Sykes, M.; Neilson, R.; Rizzo, B. 2000. The
contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon
storage by natural and agricultural ecosystems of the US 1980-1993.
Science. 287: 2004-2006.
1999
Fosberg, M.; Cramer, W.; Brovkin, V.; Fleming, R.; Gardner, R.;
Gill, A.; Goldammer, J.; Keane, R.; Koehler, P.; Lenihan, J.; Neilson,
R.; Sitch, S.; Thonicke, K.; Venevski, S.; Weber, M.; Wittenberg,
U. 1999. Strategy for a fire module in dynamic global vegetation
models. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 9: 79-84.
Neilson, R. 1999. Landscape ecology and global change. In: Wiens,
J.; Moss, M., eds. Issues in landscape ecology. Guelph, Ontario,
Canada: The International Association for Landscape Ecology. 64-69.
Schmoldt, D.; Peterson, D.; Keane, R.; Lenihan, J.; McKenzie, D.;
Weise, D.; Sandberg, D. 1999. Assessing the effects of fire disturbance
on ecosystems: a scientific agenda for research and management.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-455. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 1-104.
1998
Bachelet, D.; Brugnach, M.; Neilson, R. 1998. Sensitivity of a biogeography
model to soil properties. Ecological Modelling. 109: 77-98. [abstract]
Bishop, G.; Church, M.; Aber, J.; Neilson, R.; Ollinger, S.; Daly,
C. 1998. A comparison of mapped estimates of long-term runoff in
the northeast United States. Journal of Hydrology. 206: 176-190.
[abstract]
Lenihan, J., Daly, C.; Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R. 1998. Simulating
broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model.
Northwest Science. 72(2): 91-103. [abstract]
Neilson, R.; Drapek, R. 1998. Potentially complex biosphere responses
to transient global warming. Global Change Biology. 4: 505-521.
Neilson, R.; Prentice, I.; Smith, B.; Kittel, T.; Viner, D. 1998.
Simulated changes in vegetation distribution under global warming.
In: Watson, R.; Zinyowera, M.; Moss, R.; Dokken, D., eds. The regional
impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge,
UK: Cambridge University Press: 439-456.
Shriner, D.; Street, R.; Ball, R.; D'Amours, D.; Duncan, K.; Kaiser,
D.; Maarouf, A.; Mortsch, L.; Mulholland, P.; Neilson, R.; Patz,
J.; Scheraga, J.; Titus, J.; Vaughan, H.; Weltz, M. [et al.]. 1998.
North America. In: Watson, R.; Zinyowera, M.; Moss, R.; Dokken,
D., eds. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of
vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 255-330.
Sohngen, B.; Mendelsohn, R.; Neilson, R. 1998. Predicting CO2
emissions from forests during climatic change: a comparison of natural
and human response models. Ambio. 27(7): 509-513. [abstract]
1997
Borchers, J.; Neilson, R. 1997. Projected impacts of global climate
change on forests and water resources of the Southeastern United
States. In: Fox, S.; Mickler, R., eds. The productivity and sustainability
of southern forest ecosystems in a changing environment. New York:
Springer-Verlag. 453-478.
Kittel, T.; Royle, J.; Daly, C.; Rosenbloom, N.; Gibson, W.; Fisher,
H.; Schimel, D.; Berliner, L.; VEMAP2 Participants. 1997. A gridded
historical (1895-1993) bioclimate dataset for the coterminous United
States. In: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Applied Climatology.
Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society: 219-222.
Neilson, R. 1997. The MAPSS model. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-GTR-237. Radnor,
PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern
Research Station: 111-112.
Neilson, R.; Chaney, J. 1997. Potential changes in the vegetation
distribution in the United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-GTR-237. Radnor,
PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern
Research Station: 66-80.
Schimel, D.; Emanuel, W.; Rizzo, B.; Smith, T.; Woodward, F.; Fisher,
H.; Kittel, T.; McKeown, R.; Painter, T.; Rosenbloom, N. Ojima,
D.; Parton, W.; Kicklighter, D.; McGuire, A.; Melillo, J.; Pan,
Y., Haxeltine, A.; Prentice, I.; Sitch, S.; Hibbard, K.; Nemani,
R.; Pierce, L.; Running, S.; Borhcers, J.; Chaney, J.; Neilson,
R.; Braswell, B. 1997. Continental scale variability in ecosystem
processes: models, data, and the role of disturbance. Ecological
Monographs. 67: 251-271. [abstract]
1996
Neilson, R.; Running, S. 1996. Global dynamic vegetation modelling:
coupling biogeochemistry and biogeography models. In: Walker, B.;
Steffen, W.; eds. Global change and terrestrial ecosystems. Cambridge,
UK: Cambridge University Press: 451-465.
1995
Kittel, T.; Rosenbloom, N.; Painter, T.; Schimel, D.; Melillo, J.;
Pan, Y.; Kicklighter, D.; McGuire, A.; Neilson, R.; Chaney, J.;
Ojima, D; McKeown, R.; Parton, W.; Pulliam, W.; Prentice, I.; Haxeltine,
A.; Running, S.; Pierce, L.; Nemani, R.; Hunt, E.; Smith, T.; Rizzo,
B.; Woodward, F. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modelling
United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change.
Journal of Biogeography. 22: 857-862.
Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R. 1995. Canadian vegetation sensitivity to
projected climatic change at three organizational levels. Climatic
Change. 30: 27-56.
Neilson, R. 1995. A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation
distribution and water balance. Ecological Applications. 5(2): 362-385.
[abstract]
Pre-1995
Daly, C.; Neilson, R.; Phillips, D. 1994. A statistical-topographic
model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous
terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology. 33(2): 140-158. [abstract]
Neilson, R.; King, G.; Koerper, G. 1992. Toward a rule-based model.
Landscape Ecology. 7(1): 27-43.
Neilson, R. P., G. A. King, and J. Lenihan. 1994. Modeling forest
response to climatic change: the potential for large emissions of
carbon from dying forests. Pages 150-162 in M. Kanninen editor.
Carbon balance of the world's ecosystems: Towards a global assessment.
Publications of the Academy of Finland, Painatuskeskus, Helsinki.
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