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Pacific Northwest Research Station
Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study

Corvallis Forestry Sciences Laboratory
3200 SW Jefferson Way
Corvallis, Oregon 97331

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service.

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List Publications By Author


Gonzalez, P.; Neilson, R.P.; Lenihan, J.M.; Drapek, R.J. 2010. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19:755-768.


Blate, G.M.; Joyce, L.A.; Littell, J.S.; McNulty, S.G.; Millar, C.I.; Moser, S.C.; Neilson, R.P.; O'Halloran, K.; Peterson, D.L. 2009. Adapting to climate change in United States national forests. Unasylva 60 (231/232): 57-62.

Cary, G.M.; Flannigan, M.D.; Keane, R.E.; Bradstock, R.A.; Davies, I.D.; Lenihan, J.M.; Li, C.; Logan, K.A.; Parsons, R.A. 2009. Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 147-156.

Joyce,L.A.; Blate,G.M.; McNulty, S.G.; Millar, C.I.; Moser,S.; Neilson, R.P.; Peterson, D.L. 2009. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: National forests. Environmental Management 44:1022-1032.


Bachelet,D., J. Lenihan, R. Drapek, and R.Neilson. 2008VEMAP vs VINCERA: A DGVM sensitivity to differences in climate scenarios.Global and Planetary Change 64 (2008) 38–48.

Del Grosso, S. J., W. G. Parton, T. Stohlgren, D. Zheng, D. Bachelet, S. Prince, K. Hibbard, and R. Olson. 2008. Global potential net primary production predicted from vegetation class, precipitation, and temperature. Ecology 89:2117-2126.

Lenihan, J. M., D. Bachelet, R. P. Neilson, and R. Drapek. 2008. Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California. Climatic Change 87:S215-S230.

Lenihan, J. M., D. Bachelet, R. P. Neilson, and R. Drapek. 2008.Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2. Global and Planetary Change 64(1-2):16-25.


Keane, R. E., G. J. Cary, I. D. Davies, M. D. Flannigan, R. H. Gardner, S. Lavorel, J. M. Lenihan, C. Li, and T. S. Rupp. 2007. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation and fire. Pages 139-148 in J. G. Canadell, D. E. Pataki, and L. F. Pitelka editors. Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Springer Verlag, Berlin.

Lenihan, J. M., R. Drapek, and R. Neilson. 2007. Terrestrial ecosystem changes. Pages 60-85 in J. B. Smith, and R. Mendelsohn editors. The impact of climate change on regional systems. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.


Cary, G.; Keane, R.; Gardner, R.; Lavorel, S.; Flannigan, M.; Davies, I.; Liu, C.; Lenihan, J.; Rupp, T.; Mouillot, F. 2006. Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology. 21: 121-137.

Lenihan, J. M., R. Drapek, and R. Neilson. 2006. Terrestrial ecosystem changes. Pages 60-85 in J. B. Smith, and R. Mendelsohn editors. The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems: A Comprehensive Analysis of California. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.

Malcolm, J.; Liu, C.; Neilson, R.; Hansen, L.; Hannah, L. 2006. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology. 20(2): 538-548.

Millar, C., R. P. Neilson, D. Bachelet, R. J. Drapek, and J. M. Lenihan. 2006. Climate change at multiple scales. Pages 31-61 in Forests, Carbon and Climate Change: A Synthesis of Science Findings. Oregon Forest Resources Institute.

Wiedinmyer, C.; Ti, X.; Guenther, A.; Neilson, R.; Granier, C. 2006. Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: How might they affect regional and global atmospheric chemistry? Earth Interactions. 10(3): 1-9.


Bachelet D.; Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R.; Drapek, R.; Kittel, T. 2005. Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 35: 2073-2293.

Calkin, D.; Gebert, K.; Jones, J.; Neilson, R. 2005 Forest Service large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970-2002. Journal of Forestry. 103(4): 179-183.

Neilson, R.; Pitelka, L.; Solomon, A.; Nathan, R.; Midgley, G.; Fragoso, J.; Lischke, H.; Thompson, K. 2005. Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change. BioScience. 55(9): 749-759.


Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R. 2004. Regional differences in the carbon source-sink potential of natural vegetation in the U.S.A. Environmental. Management 33(Supplement 1): S23-S43.

Daly, C.; Gibson, W.; Doggett, M.; Smith, J.; Taylor G. 2004. Up-to-date monthly climate maps for the conterminous United States. Proceedings, 14th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society: 1-8.

Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.; Frumhoff, P.; Maurer, E.; Miller, N.; Moser, S.; Schneider, S.; Cahill, K.; Cleland, E.; Dale, L.; Davis, F.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, W.; Kalkstein, L.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.; Neilson, R.; Sheridan, S.; Verville, J. 2004. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 101(34): 12422-12427.

Keane, R.; Cary, G.; Davies, I.; Flannigan, M.; Gardner, R.; Lavorel, S.; Lenihan, J.; Liu, C.; Rupp, T. 2004. A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations for fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling. 179: 3-27.

Kittel, T.; Rosenbloom, N.; Royle, J.; Daly, C.; Gibson, W.; Fisher, H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.; VEMAP2 Participants. 2004. VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA. Climate Research. 27: 151-170.

Neilson, R. 2004. Projecting potential landscape dynamics: issues and challenges. In: Gucinski, H.; Miner, C.; Bittner, B., eds. Proceedings: views from the ridge—considerations for planning at the landscape scale. PNW-GTR-596. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 42-47.


Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.; Hickler, T.; Drapek, R.; Lenihan, J.; Sykes, M.; Smith, B.; Sitch, S.; Thonicke, K. 2003. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 17(2): 14-1—14-21.

Lenihan J.; Drapek R.; Bachelet D.; Neilson R. 2003. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California. Ecological Applications. 13, 1667-1681.

Marland, G.; Pielke, R.; Apps, M.; Avissar, R.; Betts, R.; Davis,K.; Frumhoff, P.; Jackson, S.; Joyce, L.; Kauppi, P.; Katzenberger, J.; MacDicken, K.; Neilson, R.; Niles, J.; Niyogi, D.; Norby, R.; Pena, N.; Sampson, N.; Xue,Y. 2003. The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy. Climate Policy. 3: 149-157.

Neilson, R. 2003. The importance of precipitation seasonality in controlling vegetation distribution. In Weltzin, J.; McPherson, G., eds. Changing precipitation regimes and terrestrial ecosystems: a North American perspective. Phoenix, AZ: The University of Arizona Press: 47-71.


Luo, T.; Neilson, R.; Tian, H.; Vorosmarty, C.; Zhu, H.; Liu, S. 2002. A model for seasonality and distribution of leaf area index of forests and its application to China. Journal of Vegetation Science. 13: 817-830. (PDF)


Aber, J.; Neilson, R.; McNulty, S.; Lenihan, J.; Bachelet, D.; Drapek, R. 2001. Forest processes and global environmental change: predicting the effect of individual and multiple stressors. 2000. BioScience. 51(9): 735-751.

Bachelet, D.; Lenihan, J.; Daly, C.; Neilson, R.; Ojima, D.; Parton, W. 2001. MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated ecosystem fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and water. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-508. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 95.

Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States. Ecosystems. 4: 164-185.

Dale, V.; Joyce, L.; McNulty, S.; Neilson, R.; Ayres, M.; Flannigan, M.; Hanson, P.; Irland, L.; Lugo, A.; Peterson, C.; Simberloff, D.; Swanson, F.; Stocks, B.; Wotton, B. 2001. Climate change and forest disturbance. BioScience. 51(9): 723-734.

Hansen, A.; Neilson, R.; Dale, V.; Flather, C.; Iverson, L.; Currie, D.; Shafer, S.; Cook, R.; Bartlein, P. 2001. Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes. BioScience. 51(9): 765-779.

Joyce, L.; Baer, J.; McNulty, S.; Dale, V.; Hansen, A.; Irland, L.; Neilson, R.; Skog, K. 2001. Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the forests of the United States. In: Climate change impacts in the United States. Report for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press: 489-521. (PDF)
(Color figures PDF)

Malcolm, J.; Markham, A.; Neilson, R. 2001. Can species keep up with climate change? Conservation Biology in Practice. 2(2): 24-25.


Bachelet, D.; Daly, C.; Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R.; Parton, W.; Ojima, D. 2000. Interactions between fire, grazing, and climate change at Wind Cave National Park, SD. Ecological Modelling. 134: 229-244.

Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R. 2000. Biome redistribution under climate change. In: Joyce, L.; Birdsey, R., eds. The impact of climate change on America's forests. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-59. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station: 18-44.

Dale, V.; Joyce, L.; McNulty, S.; Neilson, R. 2000. The interplay between climate change, forests, and disturbance. Science of the Total Environment. 262(3): 201-204.

Daly, C.; Bachelet, D.; Lenihan, J.; Parton, W.; Neilson, R.; Ojima, D. 2000. Dynamic simulation of tree-grass interactions for global change studies. Ecological Applications. 10(2): 449-469.

Jackson, R.; Schenk, H.; Jobbagy, E.; Canadell, J.; Colello, G.; Dickinson, R.; Dunne, T.; Field, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Heimann, M.; Hibbard, K.; Kicklighter, D.; Kleidon, A.; Neilson, R.; Parton, W.; Sala, O.; Sykes, M. 2000. Belowground consequences of vegetation change and its treatment in models. Ecological Applications. 10(2): 470-483. [abstract]

Lenihan, J.; Sandberg, D.; Neilson, R. 2000. Linking a dynamic vegetation model with the National Fuels Characterization System. In: Neuenschwander, L.; Ryan, K., eds. Crossing the millennium: integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management. Moscow, ID: University of Idaho. 288-289.

Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Bachelet, D. 2000. Overview of dynamic global vegetation models. In: Hawkes, B.; Flannigan, M.; eds. Landscape fire modeling—challenges and opportunities. Victoria, BC: Canadian Forest Service Information Report NOR-X-371. 3-4.

Schimel, D.; Melillo, J.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.; Kicklighter, D.; Kittel, T; Rosenbloom, N.; Running, S.; Thornton, P.; Ojima, D.; Parton, W.; Kelly, R.; Sykes, M.; Neilson, R.; Rizzo, B. 2000. The contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by natural and agricultural ecosystems of the US 1980-1993. Science. 287: 2004-2006.


Fosberg, M.; Cramer, W.; Brovkin, V.; Fleming, R.; Gardner, R.; Gill, A.; Goldammer, J.; Keane, R.; Koehler, P.; Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R.; Sitch, S.; Thonicke, K.; Venevski, S.; Weber, M.; Wittenberg, U. 1999. Strategy for a fire module in dynamic global vegetation models. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 9: 79-84.

Neilson, R. 1999. Landscape ecology and global change. In: Wiens, J.; Moss, M., eds. Issues in landscape ecology. Guelph, Ontario, Canada: The International Association for Landscape Ecology. 64-69.

Schmoldt, D.; Peterson, D.; Keane, R.; Lenihan, J.; McKenzie, D.; Weise, D.; Sandberg, D. 1999. Assessing the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems: a scientific agenda for research and management. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-455. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 1-104.


Bachelet, D.; Brugnach, M.; Neilson, R. 1998. Sensitivity of a biogeography model to soil properties. Ecological Modelling. 109: 77-98. [abstract]

Bishop, G.; Church, M.; Aber, J.; Neilson, R.; Ollinger, S.; Daly, C. 1998. A comparison of mapped estimates of long-term runoff in the northeast United States. Journal of Hydrology. 206: 176-190. [abstract]

Lenihan, J., Daly, C.; Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R. 1998. Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model. Northwest Science. 72(2): 91-103. [abstract]

Neilson, R.; Drapek, R. 1998. Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming. Global Change Biology. 4: 505-521.

Neilson, R.; Prentice, I.; Smith, B.; Kittel, T.; Viner, D. 1998. Simulated changes in vegetation distribution under global warming. In: Watson, R.; Zinyowera, M.; Moss, R.; Dokken, D., eds. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press: 439-456.

Shriner, D.; Street, R.; Ball, R.; D'Amours, D.; Duncan, K.; Kaiser, D.; Maarouf, A.; Mortsch, L.; Mulholland, P.; Neilson, R.; Patz, J.; Scheraga, J.; Titus, J.; Vaughan, H.; Weltz, M. [et al.]. 1998. North America. In: Watson, R.; Zinyowera, M.; Moss, R.; Dokken, D., eds. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 255-330.

Sohngen, B.; Mendelsohn, R.; Neilson, R. 1998. Predicting CO2 emissions from forests during climatic change: a comparison of natural and human response models. Ambio. 27(7): 509-513. [abstract]


Borchers, J.; Neilson, R. 1997. Projected impacts of global climate change on forests and water resources of the Southeastern United States. In: Fox, S.; Mickler, R., eds. The productivity and sustainability of southern forest ecosystems in a changing environment. New York: Springer-Verlag. 453-478.

Kittel, T.; Royle, J.; Daly, C.; Rosenbloom, N.; Gibson, W.; Fisher, H.; Schimel, D.; Berliner, L.; VEMAP2 Participants. 1997. A gridded historical (1895-1993) bioclimate dataset for the coterminous United States. In: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society: 219-222.

Neilson, R. 1997. The MAPSS model. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-GTR-237. Radnor, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 111-112.

Neilson, R.; Chaney, J. 1997. Potential changes in the vegetation distribution in the United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-GTR-237. Radnor, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: 66-80.

Schimel, D.; Emanuel, W.; Rizzo, B.; Smith, T.; Woodward, F.; Fisher, H.; Kittel, T.; McKeown, R.; Painter, T.; Rosenbloom, N. Ojima, D.; Parton, W.; Kicklighter, D.; McGuire, A.; Melillo, J.; Pan, Y., Haxeltine, A.; Prentice, I.; Sitch, S.; Hibbard, K.; Nemani, R.; Pierce, L.; Running, S.; Borhcers, J.; Chaney, J.; Neilson, R.; Braswell, B. 1997. Continental scale variability in ecosystem processes: models, data, and the role of disturbance. Ecological Monographs. 67: 251-271. [abstract]


Neilson, R.; Running, S. 1996. Global dynamic vegetation modelling: coupling biogeochemistry and biogeography models. In: Walker, B.; Steffen, W.; eds. Global change and terrestrial ecosystems. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press: 451-465.


Kittel, T.; Rosenbloom, N.; Painter, T.; Schimel, D.; Melillo, J.; Pan, Y.; Kicklighter, D.; McGuire, A.; Neilson, R.; Chaney, J.; Ojima, D; McKeown, R.; Parton, W.; Pulliam, W.; Prentice, I.; Haxeltine, A.; Running, S.; Pierce, L.; Nemani, R.; Hunt, E.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modelling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography. 22: 857-862.

Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R. 1995. Canadian vegetation sensitivity to projected climatic change at three organizational levels. Climatic Change. 30: 27-56.

Neilson, R. 1995. A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecological Applications. 5(2): 362-385. [abstract]


Daly, C.; Neilson, R.; Phillips, D. 1994. A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology. 33(2): 140-158. [abstract]

Neilson, R.; King, G.; Koerper, G. 1992. Toward a rule-based model. Landscape Ecology. 7(1): 27-43.

Neilson, R. P., G. A. King, and J. Lenihan. 1994. Modeling forest response to climatic change: the potential for large emissions of carbon from dying forests. Pages 150-162 in M. Kanninen editor. Carbon balance of the world's ecosystems: Towards a global assessment. Publications of the Academy of Finland, Painatuskeskus, Helsinki.

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