Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study

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Findings

• The MAPSS model can simulate the changes in vegetation distribution and runoff under altered climate and carbon dioxide concentration. It simulates type of vegetation and density for all upland vegetation from deserts to wet forests.
• Overall patterns include a shifting to the north of vegetation, some dieback of boreal forests, particularly along edges of interior grasslands, and a grim outlook for the Eastern United States as an area that will likely suffer negative impacts under global warming. There are few "no change" areas within the United States, and the Northwest is an area of uncertainty.
• Early stages of global warming could see increases in productivity and density of forests worldwide, as increased carbon dioxide acts as a fertilizer. Continued elevated temperatures, however could strain water resources, in time producing drought-induced stress and broad-scale dieback, with associated wildfire increases.
• Increased carbon sequestration from more productive vegetation growth could be offset by pulses of carbon into the atmosphere from increased wildfire.
• Integrated assessments of climate change across management sectors (agriculture, industry, forestry, urban planning, and others) are crucial to preparing for global warming effects. Various alternative futures ought to be considered to maintain management options.
• With global warming and the possibility of international greenhouse gas emissions control treaties, the forest management mission could expand further to include carbon sequestration.
• Shifting distributions and changing productivity of forests would alter regional forest markets and affect the global forest marketplace. National and regional economies could be altered, with national and global workforce effects.
• Long-term forest management plans are constructed under the assumption of a stable climate. Expectations within these plans need significant modification to accomodate the range of possibilities under climate change scenarios.

US Forest Service - Pacific Northwest Research Station, Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Last Modified: Monday, 17 March 2008 at 13:07:00 EDT