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- The MAPSS model can simulate the changes in vegetation distribution
and runoff under altered climate and carbon dioxide concentration. It
simulates type of vegetation and density for all upland vegetation from
deserts to wet forests.
- Overall patterns include a shifting to the north of vegetation, some
dieback of boreal forests, particularly along edges of interior grasslands,
and a grim outlook for the Eastern United States as an area that will
likely suffer negative impacts under global warming. There are few "no
change" areas within the United States, and the Northwest is an
area of uncertainty.
- Early stages of global warming could see increases in productivity
and density of forests worldwide, as increased carbon dioxide acts as
a fertilizer. Continued elevated temperatures, however could strain
water resources, in time producing drought-induced stress and broad-scale
dieback, with associated wildfire increases.
- Increased carbon sequestration from more productive vegetation growth
could be offset by pulses of carbon into the atmosphere from increased
- Integrated assessments of climate change across management sectors
(agriculture, industry, forestry, urban planning, and others) are crucial
to preparing for global warming effects. Various alternative futures
ought to be considered to maintain management options.
- With global warming and the possibility of international greenhouse
gas emissions control treaties, the forest management mission could
expand further to include carbon sequestration.
- Shifting distributions and changing productivity of forests would
alter regional forest markets and affect the global forest marketplace.
National and regional economies could be altered, with national and
global workforce effects.
- Long-term forest management plans are constructed under the assumption
of a stable climate. Expectations within these plans need significant
modification to accomodate the range of possibilities under climate