Pacific Northwest Research Station

Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center

2008 Science Accomplishments

Interaction between climate change and invasive species may intensify threats

Exotic and native invasive species are among the most serious threats facing western wildlands. Land managers have traditionally relied on observations and lessons from the past to help plan for the future. However, environmental conditions are changing, and significant changes are predicted for the future.

Working with partners and cooperators, scientists developed a set of rapid threat assessments, syntheses, and modeling projects that focused on the interaction of climate change and invasive exotic and native species on wildland resources in the Western United States.

This work demonstrates that climate change has the potential to impact the geographic ranges of some species and alter existing climate-species relationships via a number of pathways. As a result, many species likely will be able to disperse into novel climate regions and expand their ranges or increase their populations within existing locations.

Partners: EnviroWise Design; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; GEO/Graphics, Inc.; Oregon State University; University of Arizona; University of Idaho; USDA Forest Service Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, National Forest System, and Western Bark Beetle Research Group; U.S. Geological Survey; Western Regional Pathologists

To learn more, contact Becky Kerns at bkerns@fs.fed.us.

Imported bark beetle forms new fungal associations in China

The red turpentine bark beetle and the Leptographium terebrantis fungus and others in the same genera have a symbiotic relationship: the bark beetle provides the fungi with a place to live and transportation while the fungi play a critical role in the beetle's development and reproduction. The red turpentine bark beetle is native to the United States, and the combined effects of the fungi and this bark beetle on the various species of pine trees they inhabit are relatively benign.

About 10 years ago, the red turpentine bark beetle was introduced to China, most likely via a shipment of logs from the United States. Scientists have discovered that while in China, the bark beetle has formed new associations with different fungal species. Scientists in the United States, China, and South Africa are studying this to better understand the taxonomic positions of these fungi and their ability to incite disease. One concern is that red turpentine beetles that have formed Chinese fungal associates may be reintroduced to the United States and that their effect on trees may no longer be as benign.

To learn more, contact Charles G. "Terry" Shaw at cgshaw@fs.fed.us.

Partners: Nancy Gillette, USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station; USDA Forest Service Forest Health Protection; University of Pretoria, South Africa

Atlas maps current and potential distribution of Mexican bark beetle

Bark beetles belonging to the genus Dendroctonus are a wide-ranging and important disturbance agent in the pine forests of Mexico. As the climate changes, Mexican bark beetles may migrate north into U.S. forests, potentially causing widespread mortality. A new atlas maps the present and potential distribution for bark beetle species. The atlas also quantifies the frequency of specific pine-bark beetle associations found in historical collections and provides new information on the host specificity. Researchers created a beetle threat index and used it to map where beetle populations might have the largest impact on 25 native pine species.

The atlas can be used by researchers in a variety of biogeographical studies to further describe the distributions of bark beetle populations relative to their host species and their potential distribution under future climate scenarios. Managers can use the atlas to understand where bark beetles will likely have future impacts on pine forests in Mexico.

To learn more, contact Alan Ager at aager@fs.fed.us or Jane L. Hayes at jlhayes@fs.fed.us.

Partner: Escuela Nacional de Ciencias Biológicas, México

Tool: ArcFuels

Description: ArcFuels is a library of macros within the ArcMap® GIS software. It links (1) key wildfire behavior models, (2) fuels and vegetation data, (3) Microsoft Office software, and (4) ArcGIS. It is used in fuel treatment planning and wildfire risk analyses to streamline wildfire threat and mitigation assessments. The ArcMap framework helps specialists leverage local data and existing fire models to address project-specific issues that typify many fuel treatment projects.

Use: In 2008, four workshops were held to train nearly 100 fuel specialists to use ArcFuels and related programs.

How to get it: http://www.fs.fed.us/wwetac/arcfuels/

To learn more, contact Alan Ager at aager@fs.fed.us.

New framework helps assess wildfire risk

Scientists developed a framework for assessing wildfire risk that can be used in fuel treatment planning. As part of this process, they evaluated the factors that control spatially explicit burn probabilities, such as spatial patterns of fuels, topography, and wind. They then incorporated burn probability models and risk modeling with planning tools and applied these tools to large landscapes to test fuel treatment management hypotheses.

Scientists completed an initial wildfire risk analysis using this framework for the Ochoco National Forest. These results will be incorporated into the forest's wildfire management plan. Scientists made several presentations about this work to managers and fuel specialists with the Ochoco National Forest and Washington office staff.

Partners: University of California Berkeley, The Nature Conservancy, USDA Forest Service Ochoco and Deschutes National Forests and Rocky Mountain Research Station

To learn more, contact Alan Ager at aager@fs.fed.us.

Decision framework helps evaluate risks

Station scientists developed a series of questions to guide fire research and a framework to address these questions. The framework provided an approach for examining the adequacy of existing frameworks, and another for addressing business functions such as fuels treatment budgeting, planning, and application at various spatial and temporal scales; allocating suppression resources around the country; and real-time suppression actions.

Partner: Joint Fire Science Program

To learn more, contact Charles G. "Terry" Shaw at cgshaw@fs.fed.us.

Tool: Annotated bibliography on fire-bark beetle interactions

Function: This synthesis and annotated bibliography examines literature regarding current trends in fire and bark beetle activity in western forests, beetle effects on fire activity, and fire effects on beetle activity. The project was undertaken to meet the needs of forest managers in the Western United States who are facing more fires and the most extensive bark beetle outbreaks recorded for the region.

Contact: Becky Kerns at bkerns@fs.fed.us.

Partner: University of Wisconsin

How to get it: http://www.fs.fed.us/wwetac/publications/WWETAC_Fire-BB_InterX_25Feb2008.pdf

Large-scale thinning may push bark beetles into other stands

Scientists used the Westwide Pine Beetle Model and Fire and Fuels Extensions of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to simulate a bark beetle outbreak under different fuel treatment scenarios on a 173,000-acre landscape on the Deschutes National Forest. They also analyzed effects of a thinning strategy on subsequent dynamics of a simulated beetle outbreak.

The simulations suggested that thinning stands greatly reduced endemic bark-beetle-caused tree mortality. However, when a beetle epidemic was simulated by inducing drought stress, the beetle population migrated from outside the study area and attacked trees throughout the landscape, even when the majority of the area was thinned. A conclusion from these simulations is that large-scale thinning treatments do not reduce beetle-caused tree mortality under epidemic conditions. The results are supported by several published field studies.

This work resulted in a modeling framework tool that can be used to integrate the long-term potential impacts of bark beetles and management activities into landscape planning for wildfire risk and fuels treatments.

Partners: USDA Forest Service Central Oregon Insect and Disease Service Center, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team

To learn more, contact Alan Ager at aager@fs.fed.us or Jane L. Hayes at jlhayes@fs.fed.us.

Pilot study refines techniques for mapping ecology, climate, and topography

Scientists completed initial work on a pilot study to develop and refine "nearest neighbor" mapping techniques for a nationwide project. This project will use forest inventory data, satellite image and ancillary data, and nearest neighbor techniques to construct a moderate-resolution national data set of forest attributes.

These data products will be used in applications ranging from localized scenario modeling (e.g., fire, insects, pathogens, critical habitat) to broad ecosystem modeling (e.g., carbon sources/sinks, climate changes, and ecosystem services).

Forest resource managers and policymakers increasingly require spatially explicit, border to border data products that provide statistical summaries for a large array of forest attributes at small to large spatial extents. Nationwide forest attribute data products that are currently available offer coverage for only a few forest attributes of interest and generally lack useful measures of statistical validity.

Partners: Michigan State University, Northern Research Station, Oregon State University, USDA Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team and Remote Sensing Applications Center

More information: See the Nationwide Forest Imputation System Web site at http://blue.for.
msu.edu/NAFIS/.

To learn more, contact Jerome Beatty at jbeatty@fs.fed.us.

Scientists teach course on climate change, vegetation models, and decisionmaking

Climate change and its impacts add another layer of complexity to the decision environment encountered by forest managers, planners, policymakers and other decisionmakers. Planners and managers have long used vegetation models for decisionmaking and communications, but these models differ in their ability to handle uncertainty.

Station scientists developed and taught a course that examined different classes of vegetation models with particular emphasis on their utility for management and planning under climate uncertainties. The course also reviewed generalities of climate change that are useful for decisionmaking purposes. Video presentations from this short course are available online, and scientists are developing a publication on vegetation modeling and climate change.

Partners: JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station

To learn more, contact Charles G. "Terry" Shaw at cgshaw@fs.fed.us.

More information: See http://forestryvideos.com/videos/.