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National Projections of Forest and Rangeland Condition Indicators

A technical document supporting the 2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment

The 1999 forest and rangeland condition indicator model is a set of independent econometric production functions for environmental outputs (measured with condition indicators) at the national scale. This report documents the development of the database and statistical estimation required by this particular production structure with emphasis on two special characteristics of environmental output production processes: (1) the independence of ecological systems from human control, and (2) the broad-scale spatial nature of the processes. Resolution of data deficiencies also is examined.

The model projections are presented and discussed using national-scale maps. The model results are projected long-term trends in the condition of forest and rangelands associated with anticipated changes in human activities, based on broad-scale relations among natural characteristics, human activities, and indicators of environmental condition. Although the analysis was exploratory, the results can be used to focus additional research and management attention in geographic areas that were identified as having the greatest potential for environmental stress in the future.

Hof, J.;  Flather,Curtis; Baltic,Tony; and Davies, Stephen.1999.  National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators:  a technical document supporting the 1999 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment.  General Technical Report PNW-GTR--442.  Portland, OR:  USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 57 p.