The purpose of this effort is to develop a periodic five-year strategic assessment of risk of tree mortality due to major insects and diseases. This project is the second in a series which uses the development of a geographic information system (GIS) database to identify the potential impact caused by both endemic and non-endemic forest pests.
While the earlier effort ("Mapping Risk from Insect and Disease", Lewis 2002) was truly a pioneering effort, the process for the 2006 product bears little resemblance to its parent effort. Different software, some of it custom, was used in the new model. In addition, host data, GIS methods, and even the definition of risk are significantly different in this "next generation" product.
The expectation that 25% or more of standing live volume greater than 1" DBH will die over the next 15 years, including normal background mortality.
Nationally, 5 regional teams (FHM regions) of entomologists, pathologists, and technical specialists developed risk models using the same data and built models with the same architecture, to form a transparent and repeatable model system.
Alaska: Michael Shephard, Hans Buchholdt
Washington & Oregon: Dave Bridgwater, Paul Dunham, Greg Filip, Julie Johnson, Alison Nelson, Dave Overhulser, Karen Ripley, Craig Schmitt
California: Lisa Fischer
* Also, many USDA-FS and state entomologists and pathologists developed or reviewed models.
NIDRM national products are available on the FHTET NIDRM website:
We are working to extract and post state products on this website.
This webpage was last updated on July 19, 2007; reformatted May 2008.
Go to the Forest Service PNW Region's
Forest Health Protection website