USDA Forest Service RWU NE-4153 Biological Trends Climate Change Page

RWU NE-4153, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Delaware, Ohio, USA
Delaware, OH Home Project Home Biotrends Main Biotrends Climate Change Presentation
Last updated: January 23, 2002	Contact: Anantha Prasad

Climate Change: (Click image to enlarge)
trends81.JPG 53.85 KB		Climate change is upon us. I'll try to provide some evidence for past change, and estimates of what may happen.
trends82.JPG 104.92 KB		A lot of what I will present is contained within the US National Assessment reports, 3 of which are shown here (and 3 I was involved with). http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/midatlantic.htm
trends83.JPG 118.11 KB		Carbon dioxide concentrations are rising, as documented on Mauna Loa since 1959, and before that in ice core data. www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)
trends84.JPG 119.47 KB		If we go back 150,000 years, the temperature and CO2 concentrations track each other very well, up until a few years ago. Now we are at unprecidented levels of CO2: what will happen to the temperature? www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)
trends85.JPG 59.13 KB		Global land surface temperatures over the past 120 years shows first a cool period, then a warmer one, then cooler, then very warm. 9 of 10 hottest years on record have been since 1990. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html
trends86.JPG 82.37 KB		Winter temperatures have been rising in the northern plains, especially over the past 25 years. The southeast has been cooling slightly, but that is also expected according to climate models. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/
trends87.JPG 91.05 KB		Precipitation is down in the upper plains in winter, and in the southeast in summer. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/
trends88.JPG 54.46 KB		The percent of US affected by extreme rainfall events (>2 inches of rain in 1 day) has been increasing. Models predict a more vigorous hydrologic cycle. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/185.htm
trends89.JPG 83.65 KB		Climate change predictions include: increased temperature and precipitation in high latitudes in winter, a reduction of diurnal range of temperature (higher night temperatures); more hot days but less cold days; more vigorous hydrological cycle (including more droughts AND floods).
trends90.JPG 106.03 KB		The National Assessment used two future climate scenarios in their analysis: the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and the Hadley. Though both show elevated temperatures in this century, the CCC model is warmer, with up to 8 degrees C increase in middle America. Both models show a wetter West, while the Hadley shows about a 25% increase in precipitation also in the East. The CCC model shows a decrease of precipitation in the southeast and a severe decrease in the souther plain states. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewlooking.htm
trends91.JPG 57.99 KB		According the the heat index, it will be significantly more uncomfortable in July, especially under the CCC scenario. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../HeatIndex.jpg
trends92.JPG 71.50 KB		This shows the 'average' summer Illinois weather, and how it might shift by 2030 and 2090. For the CCC scenario, it shifts south and west, for the Hadley, south and east. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../SummerChange.jpg
trends93.JPG 63.18 KB		We have been analyzing the potential distribution trends of suitable habitat for 80 eastern tree species. The model, called DISTRIB, creates maps of potential habitat under a doubled CO2 climate according to 5 climate change scenarios, and has been published in this atlas. Iverson, L.R., A.M. Prasad, B.J. Hale, and E.K. Sutherland. 1999. An atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the eastern United States. General Technical Report NE-265. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service. 245 pp. Iverson LR, Prasad AM. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485.
trends94.JPG 76.05 KB		And also on this web site: Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends95.JPG 75.44 KB		Here is the current distribution of quaking aspen, using importance value (current FIA), and the potential future suitable habitat according to the Hadley and CCC models. There is a northward shift in the suitable habitat, with a more northward shift with the CCC scenario. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends96.JPG 70.13 KB		For red pine, the species habitat shows an extirpation from the U.S. under the CCC scenario. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends97.JPG 82.38 KB		For some southern species, there is a large expansion of suitable habitat, especially with the CCC scenario. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends98.JPG 73.82 KB		And for some other species, like this water tupelo, the climate drivers are secondary to edaphic drivers. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends99.JPG 85.42 KB		After evaluating the potential changes in habitat for 80 species, according to changes in importance value and range, these 20 species emerge as the 20 top gainers in U.S. habitat. Many of the southern pines and oaks would see a large increase in suitable habitat. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends100.JPG 82.08 KB		These would be the bottom 20, the ones likely to lose suitable habitat within the U.S. Most of these are northern species that would have their habitat migrate into Canada. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends101.JPG 107.27 KB		By evaluating the 80 species in combination, we can produce forest type maps of today and potentially of future suitable habitat. Both the Hadley and CCC scenarios show substantial loss of spuce-fir, maple-beech-birch, and aspen-birch habitat. Habitat for the oak-hickory and oak-pine types would increase substantially. Hansen AJ, Dale V, Flather C, Neilson RP, Bartlein P, Iverson L, Currie D. 2001. Global change in forests interactions among biodiversity, climate, and land use. BioScience 51(9)765-779. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas
trends102.JPG 122.25 KB		The SHIFT model simulates tree migration through current and historic forested landscapes. It estimates the probability of cell colonization, via a cellular automata model, over the next 100 years. These maps for Ohio show the 1800, forested landscapes to have a much higher probability of colonization, as compared to current conditions of highly fragmented forests. Iverson LR, Prasad AM, Schwartz MW. 1999. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 11577-93. Schwartz MW, Iverson LR, Prasad AM. in press. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems.
trends103.JPG 70.64 KB		Climate also bears a large influence on various wildlife species. This is one example showing the match of a January minimum isotherm with the northern limit of the eastern phoebe. These types of relationships exist for many species. Schneider SH, Root TL. 1998. Climate Change. Pages 89-116 in Mac MJ, Opler PA, Puckett Haecker CE, Doran PD. Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
trends104.JPG 54.70 KB		Currie has put together this map showing potential changes in bird species richness under a doubled CO2 climate. It shows a decrease in richness in the southern part of the country. Hansen AJ, Dale V, Flather C, Neilson RP, Bartlein P, Iverson L, Currie D. 2001. Global change in forests interactions among biodiversity, climate, and land use. BioScience 51(9):765-779.

Climate change is upon us. I'll try to provide some evidence for past change, and estimates of what may happen.

Carbon dioxide concentrations are rising, as documented on Mauna Loa since 1959, and before that in ice core data. www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)

If we go back 150,000 years, the temperature and CO2 concentrations track each other very well, up until a few years ago. Now we are at unprecidented levels of CO2: what will happen to the temperature? www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)

Global land surface temperatures over the past 120 years shows first a cool period, then a warmer one, then cooler, then very warm. 9 of 10 hottest years on record have been since 1990. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html

Winter temperatures have been rising in the northern plains, especially over the past 25 years. The southeast has been cooling slightly, but that is also expected according to climate models. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/

Precipitation is down in the upper plains in winter, and in the southeast in summer. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/

The percent of US affected by extreme rainfall events (>2 inches of rain in 1 day) has been increasing. Models predict a more vigorous hydrologic cycle. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/185.htm

Climate change predictions include: increased temperature and precipitation in high latitudes in winter, a reduction of diurnal range of temperature (higher night temperatures); more hot days but less cold days; more vigorous hydrological cycle (including more droughts AND floods).

According the the heat index, it will be significantly more uncomfortable in July, especially under the CCC scenario. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../HeatIndex.jpg

This shows the 'average' summer Illinois weather, and how it might shift by 2030 and 2090. For the CCC scenario, it shifts south and west, for the Hadley, south and east. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../SummerChange.jpg

And also on this web site: Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

For red pine, the species habitat shows an extirpation from the U.S. under the CCC scenario. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

For some southern species, there is a large expansion of suitable habitat, especially with the CCC scenario. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

And for some other species, like this water tupelo, the climate drivers are secondary to edaphic drivers. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

Carbon dioxide concentrations are rising, as documented on Mauna Loa since 1959, and before that in ice core data.

www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)

If we go back 150,000 years, the temperature and CO2 concentrations track each other very well, up until a few years ago.

Now we are at unprecidented levels of CO2: what will happen to the temperature?

www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Climate (Clinton administration)

Global land surface temperatures over the past 120 years shows first a cool period, then a warmer one, then cooler, then very warm.

9 of 10 hottest years on record have been since 1990.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html

Winter temperatures have been rising in the northern plains, especially over the past 25 years.

The southeast has been cooling slightly, but that is also expected according to climate models.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/

Precipitation is down in the upper plains in winter, and in the southeast in summer.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/

The percent of US affected by extreme rainfall events (>2 inches of rain in 1 day) has been increasing.

Models predict a more vigorous hydrologic cycle.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/185.htm

Climate change predictions include: increased temperature and precipitation in high latitudes in winter,

a reduction of diurnal range of temperature (higher night temperatures); more hot days but less cold days; more vigorous hydrological cycle (including more droughts AND floods).

According the the heat index, it will be significantly more uncomfortable in July, especially under the CCC scenario.

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../HeatIndex.jpg

This shows the 'average' summer Illinois weather, and how it might shift by 2030 and 2090.

For the CCC scenario, it shifts south and west, for the Hadley, south and east.

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/../SummerChange.jpg

And also on this web site: Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

For red pine, the species habitat shows an extirpation from the U.S. under the CCC scenario.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

For some southern species, there is a large expansion of suitable habitat, especially with the CCC scenario.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas

And for some other species, like this water tupelo, the climate drivers are secondary to edaphic drivers.

Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database].

www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas