SUCCESS STORIES

A Silviculturists Review of the 2002 Rodeo-Chedeski fire using MSN

The ID Team preparing the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for salvage of the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Fire determined that an analysis of habitat for Management Indicator Species (MIS), both before the fire and after, was a necessary baseline for describing the effects of salvage on wildlife species. The computer model used for this analysis requires Vegetative Structural Stage (VSS) and canopy cover as input variables.

Making those determinations where there is no current exam data is problematic. Even though two-thirds of this particular project area did have data (which is actually more than is typically available for project planning), we had 58,457 acres in 858 stands that did not have current data.

Some team members had recently attended a presentation where use of a process for filling in data gaps called Most Similar Neighbor (MSN) analysis was introduced.

In last two weeks in October of 2002, stand exam data was run through the MSN software and compiled for the Rodeo-Chediski analysis area. The results of this case study indicate to me (Doug Beal) that use of MSN to fill in data gaps for stand level VSS for the MIS baseline analysis was sound.

Doug Beal's Full Report (PDF)

Report Attachment 2 (XLS)

Report Attachment 3 (XLS)

Encebado Fire-Spatial Analysis Facilitated by the NRIS-INFORMS Fire Tool

On July 10th 2003, several FARSITE simulations were generated for the Encebado Wildland Fire on the Carson NF to display possible ranges of fire behavior under 90th percentile conditions. Healthy stand conditions were compared to stands affected by drought and bug kill. Historic 90th % fuel moistures (1hr 3%; 10hr 5%; 100hr 7%) were used. 90th % weather conditions were derived from Fire Family Plus analysis. Weather conditions ranged from 57 to 88 degrees Fahrenheit, 9 to 50% relative humidity and winds were out of the south/southwest at 16 miles per hour.

Fire growth simulations were run for several days based on season ending event or monsoonal moisture flow as predicted based on empirical weather values generated in Rare Event Risk Assessment Process (RERAP). The simulations were all initiated based on the existing fire perimeter as of 19:30 on the 9th of July 2003. The fire was as simulated as free burning from the existing perimeter with no suppression efforts undertaken. Spot fire growth was enabled during simulations for the extreme condition since some fire spread would be a direct result of spotting.

The FARSITE model generated comparisons, which are useful in displaying the difference in fire behavior potentials given a significant change in fuel conditions if environmental variables are held constant. It can give the fire manager an idea of the magnitude of expected change.

In this specific example the NRIS-INFORMS Fire Tool made it possible to run the Encebado Fire in the spatial model FARSITE by producing the ASCII type files required by the model. This proved to be very valuable because it greatly assisted the Incident Management team with the Wildland Fire Situation Analysis (WFSA) and the long-term planning and positioning of suppression resources on the incident. Moreover, the INFORMS application also provided the Incident Management Team with additional planning products such as: a Fire Risk Map based on crowning and torching indices, a Fuel Model Layer for the Rare Event Risk Assessment Process Model (RERAP), and Landscape files for the fire spatial model Flam Map.

The operational planning products produced for the Encebado Fire on the Carson NF & Taos Pueblo Indian Reservation provides one more excellent example of how NRIS-INFORMS is not only used as a tool for the planning and analysis of hazardous fuel treatments, but also for the operational aspects of fire suppression.

Thanks again to the NRIS-INFORMS Tools Group for helping the people on the ground make more efficient and effective management decisions with the support of their modeling applications.

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Evaluating Risk Associated with Forest Management Scenarios in New Mexico

ABSTRACT- Evaluating tradeoffs between short-term and long-term risks of different management scenarios in fire-prone ecosystems is crucial to implementation of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (H.R. 1904). We implemented a process for conducting these relative risk assessments on a 121,150-acre landscape on the Lincoln National Forest using a suite of models. Four management scenarios were evaluated: No Management (hereafter referred to as No Action), Current hazardous fuels management within Mexican Spotted Owl constraints (hereafter referred to as Alternative A), Suite of Stand Density Index (SDI) prescriptions within Mexican Spotted Owl Protected Activity Centers (MSO PAC’s), and outside designated PAC’s utilizing the Mexican Spotted Owl Recovery Plan guidelines within the Lincoln National Forest (hereafter referred to as Alternative B). No activity occurred within the 100 acre “owl core”. Suite of SDI prescriptions within MSO PAC’s, and outside designated PAC’s utilizing crowning and torching index (hereafter referred to as Alternative C). Strategic thinning occurred within the 100 acre “owl core”. Results from the management scenarios were subjected to spatial fire behavior modeling. The effects modeling generated risk metrics that indexed the effects of different activities on ecosystem components and functions. The rate of spread was proportionately reduced with more aggressive prescriptions and strategically placed fuel reduction treatments.

The results indicated that hazardous fuel reduction treatments must be implemented at a relatively large scale to significantly affect risk metrics. For the landscape analyzed, it appears that Alternatives B-C cannot be implemented under current regulatory and policy constraints. Therefore, this limits the ability to positively influence the hazardous fuels conditions currently plaguing this environment.

Evaluating Risk - Complete document proceeding (PDF)

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