FSH 5109.19 - FIRE MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS AND PLANNING HANDBOOK 11/82 WO CHAPTER 30 - FOREST ANALYSIS LEVEL I 30.3 - Policy. Fire management is a support function. As such, fire management programs must be responsive to management direction and resource objectives in the Forest land and resource management plan, and must be consistent with environmental, social, and economic values. The relationship between forest planning and fire management analysis is shown in exhibit 1. The fire management analysis process is applicable to all National Forests irrespective of local requirements and programs. The process involves four levels of analysis and planning. The scope and detail involved in each will vary with the complexity of individual Forest's fire and resource management situation. The analysis process is also appropriate for use by State and local fire protection agencies in evaluating the efficiency of alternative organizations and programs. Such agencies should substitute the appropriate equivalent organizational or administrative level for references to National Forest or Region. Fire management will be integrated with the Forest planning process in the first two analysis levels. The third and fourth planning levels are detailed implementation processes. Each level is successively built upon the other, and each provides more specific detail. SEE PAPER COPY FOR EXHIBIT 1 30.5 - Definitions 1. Fire Management Analysis, Level I. (Analysis of the management situation.) A general fire management analysis to provide historic information for the analysis of the management situation, preparation of proposed prescriptions, and subsequent formulation of Forest plan alternatives. The information describes the current situation and inventories current and historical fire and weather information and programs costs. In noncomplex fire or resource management situations, these historic data may be used to represent future protection program costs and effects. 2. Fire Management Analysis, Level II. (Evaluation of fire program options.) A technical fire management analysis that evaluates fire management program mixes and program levels, and estimates costs and effects through a detailed analytical process. A cost-efficiency analysis. 3. Fire Management Planning, Level III. (Fire program implementation.) The procedures which provide detailed information for, and guide the implementation of, fire management activities of the Forest plan. The fire programs, activities, projects, and budgets must conform with the management direction identified in the Forest plan and developed in level II. 4. Fire Management Planning, Level IV. (Operational project evaluation.) The real-time planning and analysis that supports operational situations, such as prescribed burn planning, escaped fire situations analysis, or initial attack effectiveness evaluation at the time of dispatch. Analytical data and decision criteria should conform to those used in previous analysis levels. 5. Fire Management Analysis Zones (FMAZ). The geographically delineated areas into which the planning unit is divided for the purposes of the level II analysis. The delineation is based upon common fire-management direction and fire-behavior characteristics. 6. Fire Management Direction. Prescriptions, standards, and guidelines which provide the basis for planning the kind and intensity of the fire management program on any part of the planning unit. Fire management direction is based on resource management objectives. It provides information on potential fire effects, and social, political, environmental, and economic constraints. 7. FIREPLAN. A system of computer programs which perform data retrieval and processing for the fire management analysis. 8. Fire Program Level. The alternative fire program budget level at which any given program mix may be funded. 9. Fire Program Mix. Any given combination of fire management activities and forces, with respect to both kind and the proportion of funding allocated to each function 111-115. 10. Fire Program Option. A given program mix funded at a given program level. Options are developed in response to specific fire management direction for Forest plan alternatives. The objective of the fire management analysis is to identify the most cost efficient option meeting resource management objectives. 31 - ISSUES, CONCERNS, AND OPPORTUNITIES. The interdisciplinary team will review appropriate fire management direction contained in the Regional plan, and national standards and guidelines, and will identify and evaluate public issues and long-term management concerns and opportunities to establish fire management goals and objectives. 1. Minimum Requirements. The Forest plan may contain a brief, general description of the historical role fire has played in creating or maintaining present vegetative patterns where wildfire has had a significant effect, either positive or negative, on resource outputs during recent decades. (The output from FIREPLAN program FPL-FREQ summarizes number of fires and acres burned by fire size and intensity by geographical units, such as analysis areas, vegetative types, administrative units or other areas.) Where future fire impacts on planned resource outputs are anticipated, the plan should include a brief description of the fire management program for the first planning decade. 2. Procedures. The interdisciplinary team will identify how past and current fire events have affected resource outputs and environmental considerations, and review current resource and environmental management activities affected by the fire. It will then develop and describe management concerns and opportunities for the draft environmental impact statement. Concurrently, the team will review all public issues, relating to both fire and non-fire activities for possible fire management considerations. Fire-related issues, concerns, and opportunities will be evaluated and ranked on the basis of their importance to the resource management process. The Forest Supervisor will determine those to be addressed in the planning process. Those to be addressed are then separated into two categories: one requiring application of analytical procedures for resolution, and one (policy issues) requiring adoption of policy statements. 32 - PLANNING CRITERIA. The interdisciplinary team will recommend the appropriate fire planning intensity needed to adequately respond to identified issues, concerns, and opportunities, and proposed land management goals and objectives. Fire-related criteria must be established to guide the development of the Forest plan and to evaluate fire management options. Forests with less complex fire workloads and where the potential for fire to significantly affect the attainment of land management objectives is low may choose a lower planning intensity. Those with higher fire occurrence, fire expenditures, or potential or experienced resource losses, must carry out a more detailed analysis. 1. Process a. Evaluate fire program options and develop costs for only the preferred Forest plan alternative, and determine the most efficient program level that meets fire management direction, where the fire program is an important, but not a major factor in Forest plan alternative evaluation and selection. b. Evaluate fire program options appropriate for the principal Forest plan alternatives identified by FORPLAN to provide detailed resource output and value change and program cost data for selection of most efficient program level where fire program costs and effectiveness will affect the choice between these alternatives. c. Evaluate the efficiency of fire program options for a number of alternative management prescriptions or Forest plan alternatives to provide general estimates of fire program cost and consequences for FORPLAN, where these are a very significant factor in the evaluation of the prescriptions or alternatives. d. Evaluate the effectiveness of fire program options for a single Forest plan alternative within a constrained budget to establish the most effective program mix where the budget level is fixed. 2. Requirements. All Forests shall proceed through level I fire management analysis to provide appropriate input to the analysis of the management situation. The level and resolution of detail required to support subsequent land and resource management decisions will dictate the intensity of this level I fire management analysis. 3. Alternatives. The alternatives are: a. Simple tabulation and review of annual fire statistics (numbers of fires and acres burned) for the previous decade to document for the planning record that fire is not a factor affecting the management situation of the planning unit, if appropriate. b. Development of historic fire occurrence, size, and behavior data, using the FIREPLAN programs for analysis level I (ch. 40). These data can be developed for: (1) The Forest as a whole. (2) Broad geographic units of the Forest; for example, Ranger Districts and broad vegetative types. (3) Detailed geographic land management planning or other units as appropriate to integrate with FORPLAN. These units may be fire management analysis zones (FMAZ) established for the fire analysis process. 4. Choice of Alternatives a. Planning Needs. The choice of alternative will be largely governed by planning needs. The differences between them are the resolution of initial fire data input (and associated complexity of the data input workload), and the resulting flexibility and resolution of fire behavior and occurrence outputs. The basic data input workload for item b involves identifying individual historic fires by the particular geographic unit breakdown as selected for item (1), (2), or (3) level of resolution for the FIREPLAN program FPL-AREA. b. Use of Alternatives Items a and b(1). The resolution of data provided by alternatives item a and b(1) preclude an evaluation of fire management programs through a level II analysis, and, therefore, use will be limited to Forests where there are no wildfire-related issues or concerns, or where wildfire is not a factor in resource management decisions. c. Alternative Item b(2). Alternative b(2) provides opportunity for either a more detailed look at historic fire effects for a level I analysis, broad analytical evaluation of fire programs in a level II analysis, or both. If a detailed level II analysis is contemplated or required, initial fire data assignment must be to geographic units that will have substantially uniform land and fire management direction and can be integrated with FIREPLAN in the evaluation of Forest plan alternatives, and which have substatially uniform fire behavior characteristics. d. Alternative Item b(3). Alternative b(3) provides the greatest flexibility for both level I and level II analysis, but requires the greatest workload to prepare the data input for FPL-AREA. However, by assigning individual historic fires to smaller geographic areas, historic fire occurrence and behavior can subsequently be stratified and displayed by any configuration of these areas desired (analysis areas, management areas, FMAZ). For analysis level II, similar flexibility is available for evaluating fire management programs for any configuration of geographical areas of land/fire management direction. e. Criteria Intent. These criteria are intended to guide Forests with less complex fire management situations toward a less intensive planning process. The amount of fire management analysis in the planning process should increase for the more complex forest fire management situations. f. Process Criteria. Process criteria are necessary for determining planning intensity, and designing, and formulating alternatives. (32.1) g. Option Evaluation. Criteria are also established to evaluate fire management options. These will be based on several factors, including social, economic, and environmental considerations, protection feasibility, resource prescription objectives, established standards and guidelines, and identified issues. 32.1 - Process Criteria 32.11 - Determining Planning Intensity. Guidelines are provided to help establish planning intensity for each Forest. Intensity of planning will vary by the complexity of the fire management situation, including the potential for fire to affect planned resource outputs; except units designated as representative sample Forests by the Chief or Regional Forester will follow the complete analytical process. The Forest Supervisor will determine the necessary intensity for inventory and analysis based on the public issues, management concerns, and overall LMP requirements, including the sensitivity of the plan alternative selection to fire program costs. The fire specialists will assist in developing planning criteria that facilitate the resolution of the identified issues, concerns, and opportunities. 1. Use of Level I Analysis. The level I analysis is used to: a. Provide input on recent historical fire occurrence and fire behavior (numbers of fires, acres burned by fire size, and intensity) for analysis of the management situation. b. Display the general effectiveness and cost, including FFF, of the current fire management program. This program cost may be used as a basis for estimating expected future costs where the fire program is relatively stable and will not vary significantly between prescriptions on a Forestwide basis. c. Assist in formulation of prescriptions and Forest plan alternatives. 2. Use of Level II Analysis. The level II analysis may be used to: a. Evaluate fire program options and develop costs for only the preferred Forest Plan alternative, and determine the most efficient program level that meets fire management direction, where the fire program is an important, but not a major factor in Forest Plan alternative evaluation and selection. b. Evaluate fire program options appropriate for the principal Forest Plan alternatives identified by FORPLAN to provide detailed resource output and value change and program cost data for selection of most efficient program level where fire program costs and effectiveness will affect the choice between these alternatives. c. Evaluate the efficiency of fire program options for a number of alternative management prescriptions or Forest Plan alternatives to provide general estimates of fire program cost and consequences for FORPLAN, where these are a very significant factor in the evaluation of the prescriptions or alternatives. d. Evaluate the effectiveness of fire program options for a single Forest Plan alternative within a constrained budget to establish the most effective program mix where the budget level is fixed. 3. All Forests shall proceed through level I fire management analysis to provide appropriate input to the analysis of the management situation. The level and resolution of detail required to support subsequent land and resource management decisions will dictate the intensity of this level I fire management analysis. The alternatives are: a. If appropriate, a simple tabulation and review of annual fire statistics (numbers of fires and acres burned) for the previous decade to document for the planning record that fire is not a factor affecting the management situation of the planning unit. b. Development of historic fire occurrence, size, and behavior data using the FIREPLAN programs for analysis level II (chapter 40). These data can be developed for: (1) The Forest as a whole. (2) Broad geographic units of the Forest (for example Ranger Districts; broad vegetative types). (3) Detailed geographic land management planning or other units as appropriate to integrate with FORPLAN. (These units may be Fire Management Analysis Zones (FMAZ) established for the fire analysis process.) The choice of alternative will be largely governed by planning needs. The differences between them are the resolution of initial fire data input (and associated complexity of the data input workload), and the resulting flexibility and resolution of fire behavior and occurrence outputs. The basic data input workload for alternative b involves identifying individual historic fires by the particular geographic unit breakdown as selected for either (1), (2), or (3) level of resolution for the FIREPLAN program FPL-AREA. The resolution of data provided by alternatives a and b(1) preclude an evaluation of fire management programs through a level II analysis, and therefore use will be limited to Forests where there are no wildfire related issues or concerns, or where wildfire is not a factor in resource management decisions. Alternative b(2) provides opportunity for either a more detailed look at historic fire effects for a level I analysis, broad analytical evaluation of fire programs in a level II analysis, or both. NOTE: If a detailed level II analysis is contemplated or required, initial fire data assignment must be to geographic units that will have substantially uniform land and fire management direction and can be integrated with FIREPLAN in the evaluation of Forest Plan alternatives, and which have substantially uniform fire behavior characteristics. Alternative b(3) provides the greatest flexibility for both level I and level II analysis, but requires the greatest workload to prepare the data input for FPL-AREA. However, by assigning individual historic fires to smaller geographic areas, historic fire occurrence and behavior can subsequently be stratified and displayed by any configuration of these areas desired (Analysis Areas, Management Areas, FMAZ). For analysis level II, similar flexibility is available for evaluating fire management programs for any configuration of geographical areas of land/fire management direction. These criteria are intended to guide Forests with less complex fire management situations toward a less intensive planning process. The amount of fire management analysis in the planning process should increase for the more complex forest fire management situations. 32.12 - Designing and Formulating Options. Inventory, information collection, and analysis will be done, using four basic functions. 1. Prevention. Includes all of the action associated with the prevention program. It is the 111 fire management function. 2. Suppression. Includes the detection, initial action and fire-related aviation programs. It includes the 112 (detection), 113 (initial actions) and 114 (aviation) fire management functions. The Forest should separate records of funds and activities for 112, 113, and 114 FFP. 3. Fuel Treatment. Includes activities associated with fuel reduction (treatment, maintenance, resource support) financed by 115 FFP. 4. Cooperators. Includes planned payments to or from cooperators as part of cooperative protection agreements. 32.2 - Evaluation Criteria. The management area will be the basic land planning unit on which evaluations of forest plan alternatives are based, as determined for the forest planning process. Where a management area must be subdivided into two or more fire management analysis zones (sec. 41.13) for fire management analysis purposes, data from the subdivisions will be aggregated for the management area. 1. Criteria List. Criteria for evaluating fire management programs will include: a. Economic efficiency. b. Responsiveness to fire management direction. c. Technical feasibility. d. Social and political implications. e. Environmental impacts. The relative importance of each of these criteria will be determined by Forest plan evaluation criteria and the kind and magnitude of potential fire-related consequences. 2. Additional Guidelines a. Economic efficiency will consider budgeted protection (FFP) and expected emergency fire suppression (FFF) costs, and expected net resource value changes. (C+NVC). b. Technical feasibility will consider the protection activities required to implement proposed fire management options, such as the availability of required suppression forces, and the probability that planned fuel treatment programs can be completed as scheduled. c. Fuel treatment program evaluation will consider only the fire management program related effects; significant secondary benefits to resource outputs should be reflected in the FORPLAN coefficients for the resources(s) affected. d. The efficiency of proposed fuel treatment options must be established by comparing pretreatment fire program C+NVC with the investment cost plus the C+NVC for the level protection which will be required following treatment. The posttreatment program must include adequate funds for maintaining the fuels investment (ch. 40). e. Environmental feasibility will consider the qualitative effects of fire on longer term site productivity and on nondollar resource values (also referred to as nonmarket resources). 33 - INVENTORY DATA AND INFORMATION COLLECTION 33.1 - Information Requirements. Inventory information is collected for specific purposes and should only be as detailed as is necessary to address the issues, concerns and opportunities. The kind and amount of fire-related information required is governed by the intensity of the fire management analysis process which will be carried out. This intensity is determined by the magnitude of the fire problem on the Forest. Certain baseline information is necessary to adequately assess past and potential impacts of fire on the current management situation and to formulate management practices. 33.2 - Data Storage and Retrieval. The management baseline data and information will be stored in an information management system compatible with other resource information used in the Forest plan, and with supporting fire management analyses. Data and information collected and evaluated during the monitoring process will be used to update the fire management information file, and to maintain a record of change from the baseline information. 1. Historical Record a. Fire occurrence information. Historical fire occurrence data for at least the most recent 5-year period where occurrence is high, (approximately 100 fires per year) and most recent 10-year period in other cases, must be included for program analytical purposes. This includes listing of individual fires by the Forest's fire number; intensity level; size, date, and time of discovery; location; and statistical cause. (FPL-RETRIEVE through FPL-FREQ.) A map should be prepared showing the location and supervisor fire number of the fires for the period used. b. History of prescribed fire use. (Brief narrative, plus annual acreage burned, by purpose, for most recent 5-year period.) c. Annual costs of each fire management program element, for the most recent 3-years where the record is available, under the current fire plan. d. Current fire management prescriptions, practices, and direction where fire management areas now exist. 2. Fire Regime Descriptions. Include a brief description of natural fire effects, history, fuels, and the impact of intensive fire protection, including the interruption of natural fire cycles. Consider the following: a. Present vegetation composition in comparison to potential vegetation composition under the natural fire regime. b. Present vegetation composition related to past fires and fire suppression. c. Changes in vegetation composition that might be expected from future fires. 3. Fuel Information. The analysis process is based upon interpretations of potential fire behavior. Existing or predicted fuel conditions must be described in terms of national fire danger rating system (NFDRS) fuel models most representative of the planning area. Where a single fuel model is inadequate to represent the fuel profile, two fuel models, and the proportion of the fuel bed within the fuel type area represented by each, may be selected to reflect conditions where two fuel types are reasonably uniformly intermingled over an area. (However, in level I analysis, one fuel model can be assigned to each historical fire.) Chosen fuel models may be displayed on an overlay to the Forest planning map. Additional maps (or overlays) depicting planned changes in fuel profiles, whether through fuel treatment, or resulting from other resource management activities during the planning period, should be prepared for use in the level II analysis where sufficient area is involved to change the fuel profile for an FMAZ. 4. Topographic and Weather Information. Slope classes for the planning area are the same as those used in the NFDRS, except all slopes greater than class 2 are entered as class 3 in all data input. Daily historical fire weather observations and fire weather station descriptors from local stations representative of each of the historical fires for level I, and for each FMAZ for level II, are necessary. These are accessed from the National Fire Weather Library programs. 5. Detection and Suppression Information. Travel times (templates or other appropriate data format, such as analysis of historical attack times from Form FS-5100-29, Individual Fire Report, for initial action and local reinforcement forces) are necessary. Production rates for suppression forces are given in chapter 40. Also needed is an inventory of the planning unit's current fire detection and suppression manpower, equipment, and facilities, by location (worksheet 2). Include Regional/national and cooperator forces typically available to the unit for initial action and local reinforcement.