1909.17,T of C Page 1 of 8 FSH 1909.17 - ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS HANDBOOK Contents ZERO CODE CHAPTER 10 EVALUATING ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY 20 ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS 30 SOCIAL ANALYSIS ZERO CODE Contents 01 AUTHORITY 05 DEFINITIONS CHAPTER 10 - EVALUATING ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY Contents 11 MEASURES 11.1 Use of Terms Economic Efficiency, Cost Efficiency, and Cost Effectiveness 11.2 Measures to Rank Alternatives 12 IDENTIFYING INPUTS, OUTPUTS, AND PRODUCTION PROCESSES 12.1 Objectives and Measures for Attainment 12.2 Uncertainty in Production Processes 12.3 Standards for Time Periods 12.4 Standards for Inputs 12.5 Standards for Outputs 13 ANALYZING COSTS 13.1 Costs for Forest Service Activities 13.11 Costs to be Considered 13.12 Standards for Costs 13.2 Fixed and Variable Costs 13.21 Distinguishing Variable Costs 13.22 Use of Variable Costs in Analysis 13.3 Development of Cost Information 13.31 Conducting Informal Cost Surveys 13.32 Using Engineering Cost Estimates 13.33 Analyzing Cost Trends 13.4 Costs in Partial Analysis 13.5 Adjustments for Real Dollar Values 14 ASSESSING MARKETS AND DEVELOPING OUTPUT VALUES 14.04 Responsibility 14.1 Outputs to be Valued 14.11 Specific Outputs to be Valued 14.2 Components of a Market Assessment 14.3 Demand Schedules for National Forest Outputs 14.31 Fixed Value/Demand Limit 14.32 Constructed Demand Curves 14.33 Statistical Demand Equations 14.34 Computation of Derived Demands 14.35 Travel Cost Method 14.4 Projection of Demand 14.5 Selection and Adjustment of Output Values 14.51 Selection of "Type" of Value 14.6 Standards for Values 14.7 Use of Demand and Value Information 15 COMPUTING MEASURES OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY 15.1 Discounted Measures: Scarce Resource Opportunities 15.2 Discounted Measures: Scarce Investment Funds 15.3 Relationship between Benefit/Cost Ratio, Present Net Value, Equivalent Annual Income and Internal Rate of Return 15.4 Discount Rates, and Handling Inflation and Risk 15.41 Methods and Standards for Discounting 15.42 Recommended Discount Rates 15.43 Incorporating Inflation 15.44 Incorporating Risk and Uncertainty 15.5 Project Level Economic Analysis 16 USING ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSES FOR PROGRAM AND MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES 16.1 Sensitivity Testing 16.2 Incremental Analyses 16.3 Analysis of Least Cost Treatment Combinations 16.4 Analysis of Minimum Cost Plus Net Value Change 16.5 Breakeven Analysis CHAPTER 20 - ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS Contents 21 ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS 21.1 Scope of Program or Project 21.2 Purposes of Economic Impact Analyses 21.3 Means to Estimate Economic Multiplier Effects 22 METHODS OF ESTIMATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS 22.1 Input-Output Analysis 22.2 Input-Output Tables 22.3 Methods of Assembling Data 22.4 IMPLAN, the Forest Service System 23 MEASURES OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS 23.1 Types of Impacts and Multipliers 23.11 Direct Outputs 23.12 Indirect Outputs 23.13 Induced Outputs 23.2 Impacts and Multipliers for Small Areas 23.3 Components of Impacts and Multipliers 24 DEFINING THE RELEVANT IMPACT AREA 24.1 Criteria for Defining Impact Analysis Areas 24.11 Economic Centers 24.12 Trade Patterns Based on Raw-Material Outputs 24.13 Trade Patterns Based on On-Site Use of Outputs 24.14 Counties with Program Lands 24.15 Residences of Labor Force 24.2 Additional Impact Areas 25 GENERATING AND MODIFYING BASIC DATA FOR IMPACT AREA 25.1 Generating and Reviewing County Data 25.2 Modifying Data at the County Level 26 DEVELOPING A REGIONAL ECONOMIC MODEL 26.1 Steps in Model Development 26.2 Aggregating Sectors of the Regional Model 26.3 Review of Model Results and Multipliers 27 SPECIFYING ECONOMIC CHANGES FROM ACTION PROGRAMS 27.1 Specifying Changes from Alternative Levels of Program Activities 27.11 Identify Outputs and Processes 27.12 Specify Changes in Physical Units 27.13 Estimate Per Unit Values 27.14 Allocating Values to Appropriate Sectors 27.15 Adjusting Values to Constant Dollars 27.2 Direct and Indirect Changes in Government Expenditures 27.21 Forest Service Expenditures 27.22 Purchaser-Credit Roads 27.23 Shared Receipts 28 ESTIMATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS 28.1 Economic Impact Calculations 28.2 Extensions of Economic Impact Analysis 28.21 Supply-Constrained Industries 28.22 Structural Change 28.23 Labor Force Utilization 29 REFERENCES CHAPTER 30 - SOCIAL ANALYSIS Contents 30.1 Authority 30.2 Objectives 30.4 Responsibility 30.5 Definitions 30.6 Role of Social Impact Analysis in Environmental Analysis 31 CONDUCT SCOPING 31.1 Initiate Social Impact Analysis During Scoping 31.2 Consider Social Conditions in Scoping 31.3 Plan the Analysis 31.4 Identify Agency-Community Linkages 31.41 Determine the Area of Influence 31.42 Delineate Subareas 31.5 Consider Social Analysis Documentation 31.51 Social and Economic Overview 31.52 Other Social Analysis Reference Documents 31.6 Identify Special Concerns 31.7 Develop Criteria 31.8 Anticipate Data Needs 32 CONDUCT INDEPTH SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 33 SELECT VARIABLES 33.1 Select Measurable Variables 33.2 Consider a Wide Range of Variables 33.21 Lifestyles 33.22 Attitudes, Beliefs, and Values 33.23 Social Organization 33.24 Population Characteristics 33.25 Land-Use Patterns 33.26 Civil Rights 33.3 Select Key Variables 33.4 Apply Selection Criteria 34 COLLECT AND INTERPRET DATA 34.1 Gather Social Data 34.11 Statistics 34.12 Written Materials 34.13 Observations 34.14 Respondent Contacts 34.2 Review Public Participation Data 34.3 Compile and Verify Data 34.4 Interpret Data 34.41 Minimize Bias 34.42 Consider All Affected People 34.43 Establish Time Frames 34.5 Organize Data 34.51 Use Appropriate Graphics 35 ESTIMATE EFFECTS 35.1 Focus on Agency-Induced Changes 35.2 Identify Other Sources of Change 35.3 Consider Resource Interrelationships 35.4 Estimate Socioeconomic Effects 35.41 Use of Economic Models 35.42 Population Analysis 35.43 Infrastructure Impacts 35.44 Fiscal Impacts 35.5 Estimate Sociocultural Effects 35.6 Identify Effects on Civil Rights 35.7 Consider Direct, Indirect, and Cumulative Effects 35.8 Provide Effective Description of Effects 35.9 Identify Mitigation 36 EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES 36.1 Develop Social Criteria for Evaluating Alternatives 36.2 Determine Significance of Effects 36.3 Compare Alternatives 37 DOCUMENT, IMPLEMENT, AND MONITOR 37.1 Document Findings 37.2 Implement the Decision 37.21 Monitor Implementation 38 TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES APPENDIX 38.1 The Social and Economic Overview 38.2 Sources of Social Data 38.3 Projecting Social Effects 38.4 Sample Matrices and Narratives of Social Effects 38.5 References