1909.17,35-38 Page 1 of 24 FSH 1909.17 - ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS HANDBOOK 35 - ESTIMATE EFFECTS. See FSH 1909.15, section 23, for direction on formulating alternatives, which include the proposed action, no action, and other reasonable alternatives. In general, estimate the social effects of a proposed action and its alternatives when: 1. Social effects relate to the identified issues and concerns and may be important to the decision at hand (FSM 1973.03). 2. There are important differences, by alternative, in the type, intensity, and duration of social effects. Methods for estimating the social effects of each alternative include: 1. Consultation with experts whose training and experience enable them to predict the most probable outcome of each alternative. 2. Computer modeling to project outcomes from different sets of assumptions (sec. 35.4 and sec. 38.3(2)). 3. Social science field work to determine which social variables the proposed action is most likely to affect. Use appropriate projection techniques to estimate the effects each alternative is likely to produce (sec. 35.4 and sec. 38.3 (1-2)). 4. Interdisciplinary team judgments of what could happen, based on a review of all available pertinent data. These data include public response files (sec. 34.14), studies of similar situations (sec. 38.3(3)), and personal experience with such actions. Review the general social effects categories specified in FSM 1973.2 and the variables selected for analysis (sec. 33.2) to ensure that the analysis does not overlook critical effects. Often, both socioeconomic and sociocultural variables are important to the analysis of the social effects categories. Exhibit 01 illustrates this relationship. 35 - Exhibit 01 Category Affected Socioeconomic Variables Sociocultural Variables 1. Lifestyle No. employed in recreation, No. who camp out, fish, or mining or logging enjoy hiking 2. Social organization Capacity of local hospital Patterns of mutual aid in or school facilities time of need 3. Values, attitudes, Desire to harvest timber Desire for privacy, solitude, beliefs or scenic beauty 4. Population No. moving to take new Age, sex, norms, and values jobs; size of payroll of new residents 35.1 - Focus on Agency-Induced Changes. Social analysts must distinguish between social change induced by Forest Service actions and social change that would occur without the action. Project the no-action or "baseline" alternative first (FSH 1909.15, sec. 23.1). Then project the expected effects of each action alternative and compare them with the baseline alternative. Attribute any differences to the action alternative under comparison. For example, suppose projections indicate that jobs would decline 5 percent under "action" alternative B and would decline 10 percent under no-action or baseline alternative A because of automation and the changing age structure of timber stands. Alternative B's socioeconomic effect is to reduce by half the loss of jobs that would otherwise occur. 35.2 - Identify Other Sources of Change. Continuing social and economic changes occur under "no-action" because of external factors, for example: 1. Changing market conditions for forest commodities and services. 2. Independent actions by other agencies or by the private sector. 3. Minor shifts in Forest Service management emphasis permitted under present direction. 4. Changes in public preferences and forest-use patterns. 5. Local population shifts unrelated to Forest Service activities. Agency activities have little or no influence on these changes. However, estimate these changes and project their effects in the discussion of the no-action alternative. Avoid erroneously attributing important effects from other sources to the proposed action. 35.3 - Consider Resource Interrelationships. Estimate social effects in a context of physical, biological, economic, and social factors to avoid overlooking important interrelationships (FSH 1909.15, sec. 24). For example, a major change in water quality or availability could affect certain species of game fish, local recreation options, the cost of cleaning and purifying water, and the travel-tourism industry. 35.4 - Estimate Socioeconomic Effects. Many effects of forest management actions reach the public through the private economic sector. A Forest provides commodities and opportunities to the local, regional, and national economies; buys goods and services from them; provides local payrolls; and shares the receipts collected with local governments. Because the extent of forest resource utilization differs among alternatives, varying amounts of commodities flow to affected industries. Profits, employee earnings, and ultimately tax revenues also vary. Knowledge about the extent of these changes is critical to social impact analysis because it provides a basis for estimating related effects on other segments of the economy, the community, and the lives of individuals. 35.41 - Use of Economic Models. Input-output (I-O) analysis (ch. 20) uses a system of computer programs to estimate socioeconomic effects that originate in the economic sphere. An I-O analysis can detect and document the ways that a change in one sector of the local economy stimulates changes in other sectors. The Forest Service Input-Output Model for Planning (IMPLAN) describes the structure and trade flows of county economies. It can make effective, short-term predictions of the effects that changes in forest outputs may have on county economies, individually or in combination. IMPLAN is most useful in multi-county trend analysis, as is done in forest and regional land management planning. Input-output models identify economic trends and relationships useful in comparing alternatives. Regard the numbers (jobs and income) produced by the model as indicative of the relative impacts of the different alternatives and not as accurate predictions of actual changes. The IMPLAN model has been of limited value in the analysis of small areas of influence because it is programmed with county- level data based on the decennial U.S. Census. When using IMPLAN or other predictive models for social analysis, take into account the level and date of the data in the system. When either community-level or more current information is needed, consult appropriate Federal, State, and local sources (sec. 38.2). To illustrate one use of current data, Federal and State employment and unemployment statistics are updated each month. It is possible to locate, organize, and interpret employment trends for a small area on a case-by-case basis. Prepare a table to show employment (by sector, such as manufacturing, mining, or retail sales) and unemployment trends. Then estimate the significance of local conditions by comparing levels and percentages of change with past years, other localities, and State and Federal averages. 35.42 - Population Analysis. If a proposed action could generate substantial changes in locally available employment, analyze population characteristics and trends. A loss of jobs for an extended period implies out-migration of workers and their families. Make assumptions about the number of jobs filled by local workers, the number of incoming workers, and the number and size of the families that will accompany these workers. Various studies provide a basis for these assumptions (sec. 38.5). If a proposed action could result in important changes in the size or composition of the population in the area of influence, project future trends and estimate the related social and economic effects. Five general methods are available for projecting current trends and conditions into the future. These are (1) simple trend extension, (2) economic input-output models, (3) use of population multipliers, (4) community comparison, and (5) the use of experts. The IMPLAN model estimates population at the county level under a variety of assumptions. Trend information is necessary for building the no-action alternative (sec. 35.1 and sec. 35.2) and for estimating the social effects of the alternatives. Projection techniques are described in section 38.3 and in sources 1 and 3 in section 38.5. 35.43 - Infrastructure Impacts. Rapid population changes affect county and community facilities and services, both public and private. These may include housing, utilities, streets, schools, parks, playgrounds, retail stores, social and medical services, and churches. The severity of the impacts depends on the size and duration of the action as well as the capacity of affected communities to absorb the additional people. Only 50 incoming workers could overload a rural community of 300 people. However, most small cities with 5,000 residents or several neighboring small towns of from 300 to 500 residents may have adequate housing and services for 50 new workers. A small town has fewer available local workers than a large town, so more labor is "imported" to do a given amount of work. However, isolated villages with fewer than 1,000 people usually lack adequate public and commercial services, even for their own residents. Thus, both present and incoming population data are needed for estimating infrastructure impacts. 35.44 - Fiscal Impacts. Fiscal impacts sometimes occur because of changing Forest outputs and population changes relating to Forest programs. The level of Forest outputs determines Forest Service payments to counties and may affect tax revenues derived from the production of goods and services in the area of influence. Rapid population growth and infrastructure expansion create additional expenses for local government that are funded through taxes, grants, or borrowing. After growth stabilizes, funding needs usually stabilize within a few years. Population decline results in revenue losses and a reduction in local government employment. Knowledge of the age, sex, and occupational structure of the area of influence is useful for estimating the fiscal impacts of various alternatives. For example, an alternative that increases local government costs and tax revenues would have an adverse effect on retirees living on fixed incomes. When fiscal information is essential to the analysis, consult a Forest Service fiscal staff officer about agency payments to State and local governments. Consult appropriate departments of State, county, and city government for additional fiscal data. 35.5 - Estimate Sociocultural Effects. Sociocultural effects are social consequences of Forest Service activities that are noneconomic in origin or cannot meaningfully be reduced to monetary terms. These effects include changes in people's norms, values, customs, sense of well-being, social relationships, and basic institutions (sec. 33.2, ex. 01). The potential sociocultural effects of most major actions are important to affected people and the agency. Be sure to understand these effects before beginning decisionmaking and implementation. Describe relevant sociocultural conditions and effects in the most appropriate and effective way (quantitative, graphic, or precise narrative). When estimating sociocultural effects, determine whether a proposed action complements, aggravates, or has little effect on conditions in the area of influence. The same proposal may be regarded as beneficial in one location and as undesirable in another because communities differ in their economic needs, proximity to the action, and knowledge about the changes likely to occur. Look beyond the public's current impressions of a proposed action. People often modify their views about the action after implementation because their subsequent experiences differ from their expectations. Activities that prove to be environmentally sound, socially responsive, and locally perceived as necessary earn increased public support. Sociocultural effects are sometimes inconsistent with socio- economic effects, so it is important to understand both before making a decision. For example, one area of influence is heavily dependent on timber production but also has high unemployment. The Forest Service economist estimates that a proposed recreation development would create 200 jobs locally--a positive socioeconomic effect. However, many local residents oppose the accompanying influx of tourists. The unemployed loggers and mill workers are unwilling to change careers and lifestyles and to enter the service occupations with the low pay offered by the travel-tourism industry. They prefer to wait for the timber market to improve or to look for jobs in other sectors or locations. Communities vary widely in their potential to accommodate population increases. This ability depends on size, financial resources, administrative expertise, local outlook toward growth, available outside assistance, and surplus infrastructure capacity (sec. 35.43). Nevertheless, extremely rapid, extended growth has a potential to surpass any community's ability to adjust and may create serious problems, at least in the short run. Exhibit 01, How Rapid and Extended Changes May Affect Community Institutions, demonstrates how the socioeconomic, fiscal, and sociocultural impacts that result from continuing population growth could affect different institutions. References listed in section 38.5 are useful in identifying and estimating these combined impacts. 35.5 - Exhibit 01 How Rapid and Extended Changes May Affect Community Institutions Individuals and Family Groups Shortage of adequate housing; inflation of prices and rentals. Multiple-family occupancy of some single-family dwellings; other make-shift living arrangements. Local inflation increases hardship for persons with fixed incomes. Greater incidence of anxiety, mental illness, alcoholism and other drug abuse, and suicide. Increase in the frequency of divorce, separation, remarriage, and illegitimate births. Improved job opportunities, especially in rural areas; some young people drop out of school to take well-paying jobs. Increase in the percentage of single male residents during project construction. Greater percentage of mothers employed outside home. More frequent abuse of spouses and children. Quality of Neighborhood and Community Life With continuing in-migration, greater racial, cultural, and lifestyle diversity. Increased support for newer, less conventional social and cultural activities in the community. Expanded social and employment opportunities for women and minorities. Decline in the effectiveness of informal community controls and an increase in formal-legal relationships. Increase in most categories of adult crime and juvenile delinquency; more people feel insecure and lock their homes and cars. Greater competition for the use of recreational facilities. Realignment of friendships as new issues separate friends and new contacts permit alternatives. Increased noise; pollution of air and water; more litter on streets, sidewalks, and highways. Schools, Churches, Voluntary Associations Increased variety of church denominations and sects. New alternatives to conventional morality and established customs exist. Organized groups oriented toward resource conservation or development become more prominent. Crowded schools; pressure for more classrooms, buildings, personnel; more competitive athletic teams and other groups but more difficult to qualify for them. Social clubs and lodges gain members; new leadership patterns emerge; some shifts in relative prestige and influence of different organizations. New voluntary organizations form, some to deal with various effects. Increased student and teacher turnover; greater need for special programs for particular students. More lifestyle and leisure options for residents. Local Government Political activity more intense, competitive, with wider participation. Overburdened public services: police, fire, libraries, hospital, jails, juvenile homes, social services, parks, playgrounds, swimming pools. Increased traffic, street damage; inadequate parking, abandoned cars. Insufficient public utilities: water, sewer, solid waste, and power generation facilities. Time is required to plan: meanwhile uncoordinated real estate development occurs in absence of zoning. Revenues for expanding facilities either very inadequate or lag 2 to 3 years behind needs. Increases in litter, theft, vandalism, and animal control problems. Long-range prospect of gains in per-capita revenues. Increasingly complete community services are developed. Social Aspects of Private Economic Sector Decline in production due to absenteeism; increased employee turnover. TV cable, telephone, water, power companies unable to meet hookup demands. Increased business activity; national chains open branch operations; some small businesses are displaced. Shortage of responsible professionals and technicians: doctors, lawyers, dentists, repairmen, carpenters, mechanics, electricians, plumbers. Loss of trained employees to higher-paying jobs in new industries. Retail outlets unable to handle business volume with former courtesy and efficiency. Real estate, construction, mobile home, vehicle dealership, other growth-related businesses thrive. Income redistribution due to higher rents, wages, profits, and land values; some people gain, others lose. Greater variety of commercial services become available. 35.6 - Identify Effects on Civil Rights. The Forest Service is prohibited from discriminatory practices within the agency and in transactions with the public (FSM 1710). The analysis should identify any infringements on civil rights that could result from a proposed action or its alternatives (FSM 1730). 35.7 - Consider Direct, Indirect, and Cumulative Effects. Consider both direct and indirect social effects in the environmental analysis (40 CFR 1502.16, 40 CFR 1508.8). Direct social effects are those caused by natural resource management actions, such as the impact of Forest Service roading and free- use policies on local firewood users. A new road in a heavily forested area usually increases recreation use. An oil and gas leasing program may stimulate exploration and development. Indirect and induced (ch. 20) social effects are the often unintended secondary consequences of the action and its direct effects. For example, new arterial roads that open several drainages for timber harvest might increase jobs and payrolls, revitalize civic organizations, and stimulate expansion of public services. Development and sustained production on oil and gas leases or mining claims increase local business volume, employment, and tax revenues. Cumulative effects occur when direct and indirect effects from more than one action overlap, increasing the total impact (40 CFR 1508.7). A major oil and gas discovery usually brings many companies into an area and intensifies social impacts. New workers move to the area. Local governments and businesses lose employees to oil and gas developers who pay higher wages. Housing, schools, and local services may be unable to meet expanding needs. This could in turn increase rents, taxes, and the price of consumer goods and services, making the area less attractive to persons on fixed incomes. 35.8 - Provide Effective Description of Effects. Estimation of social effects is a compromise between detail and significance. Objectively consider each geographic subarea (sec. 31.42), assess changes in the most relevant social variables (sec. 33), and identify the most significant effects. Describe effects in quantitative terms, if feasible, and in brief narratives (FSM 1970.6). The exclusive use of symbols "+", "-", "0", or "?" is discouraged because use of these symbols masks rationale, source, and qualification of the estimate. Document sources of data and estimates by experts. When there is insufficient information to make credible estimates of the effects of an action with a potential for significant adverse impacts on the human environment, see 40 CFR 1502.22. If similar actions have occurred previously under comparable enviromental conditions, it may be possible to infer the range of probable effects from such examples. Work sheets are useful to summarize and compare selected variables or general categories of effects (sec. 33) by alternative and for each subarea analyzed. Collect and summarize the most significant effects of the decision on social life. Examples of worksheets and narrative summaries of social effects for two alternatives are in section 38.4, exhibits 01 through 04. 35.9 - Identify Mitigation. Usually, the Forest Service is not responsible for the direct mitigation of social effects that occur outside of National Forest boundaries and jurisdiction; but other governmental units may need to act. The Forest Service is directed by statute and agency regulations to provide civic and public officials with quantified and descriptive measures of the projected impacts of agency actions so that potentially affected people can develop appropriate strategies to deal with them (National Environmental Policy Act, sec. 102(d)(g); FSM 1973.02(3)). A careful projection of expected impacts helps other Federal agencies, States, counties, and communities to avoid or mitigate adverse effects that fall within their jurisdiction (40 CFR 1502.14, 1502.16). 36 - EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES. The decisionmaker must consider social and economic effects that are important to the decision (FSM 1973.03). Review, compare, and weigh the effects of each alternative using alternative evaluation criteria that reflect social as well as other concerns. 36.1 - Develop Social Criteria for Evaluating Alternatives. Social analysis continues throughout the environmental analysis. New social information becomes available, providing a better understanding of potential effects. Review alternative evaluation criteria developed during scoping (sec. 31.7) and adapt or extend them, if necessary, to be responsive to identified issues and concerns. From a social analysis perspective, an alternative that avoids or resolves adverse social impacts and prolonged conflicts is preferable to one that does not. Alternative evaluation criteria are human values applied to Forest management; for example, clean air, scenic beauty, economic efficiency, increased employment, or the protection of endangered species. In evaluating social effects, consider criteria that reflect widely shared values such as democracy, economic opportunity, local autonomy, and "being fair." The following are examples. 1. Quality of Social Life. An alternative protects and enhances the quality of life preferred by affected residents. A high quality of life may include: a. An economic structure compatible with locally preferred work and leisure patterns. b. Forest uses and practices in harmony with community beliefs and values. c. An absence of disruptive conflicts within the community. d. Optimism about the advantages of living in the area. 2. Community Stability. Community stability (sec. 30.5 and sec. 33.23) depends on the type and rate of population change, the consistency of changes with local values, the effectiveness of local leadership, and the volume of forest output to the private sector. Under the best alternative, proposed changes are consistent with the local capacity to adapt facilities, services, and institutions. Clearly identified community preferences, knowledge of existing trends, and evidence of the ability to adapt help to define acceptable rates and types of sociocultural and socio-economic change. 3. Equitable Distribution of Effects. All individuals, groups, or communities do not share social effects equally, so any alternative is likely to benefit some people and negatively affect others. An alternative may be socially preferable when the individuals and groups that benefit from it also pay most of the direct and indirect costs of implementing the alternative. Accordingly, it is less desirable if one group benefits while others pay most of the costs. The analysis of the equitable distribution of effects requires careful study. A positive effect in one community may be perceived as negative in another. 4. Effective Mitigation. The alternative avoids, restricts, or adequately compensates for adverse social effects. 5. Long-term Justification. The alternative considers the resource needs of future generations and includes measures to ensure adequate future supplies. 36.2 - Determine Significance of Effects. (40 CFR 1502.1, 40 CFR 1508.16, 40 CFR 1508.27). 36.3 - Compare Alternatives. Compare alternatives on the basis of social, economic, and other evaluation criteria. To simplify the comparison of the social effects of each alternative, summarize important effects in meaningful phrases in a summary table (sec. 38.4, ex. 05). If possible, enter these effects on a master table that also summarizes economic, biological, and physical effects by alternative. This permits easy comparison of each factor in the context of the others. Identify alternatives that offer the best mix of benefits for the environmental costs incurred, including a preferred alternative, if there is one (FSH 1909.15, sec. 25). 37 - DOCUMENT, IMPLEMENT, AND MONITOR. 37.1 - Document Findings. (FSH 1909.15, ch. 30 and 40). When a social impact analysis is complex or controversial, keep a written record of the social portion of the analysis process even if a formal background document is unnecessary (FSM 1952; FSH 1909.15, sec. 31). Information gathered during scoping is thus readily available for further analysis; it is easy to review, revise, and compare the data; and issues considered during the analysis are recorded for future reference. A suitable outline for such a record is: 1. Nature of the proposed action: who, what, when, where, how, and why. 2. Potentially affected area, social characteristics that are relevant to the analysis, and social issues identified. 3. Possible social effects and mitigation opportunities under each identified alternative. 4. Comparison of the social effects of each alternative. If the proposed action is not categorically excluded, include social analysis findings in the appropriate environmental document. Note in the narrative the information sources and methodologies used in the analysis or identify them in foot-notes or a reference section. Include supporting documents prepared for the analysis in the appendix or ensure that these documents are readily available. If incorporating other documents by reference (to avoid duplication or technical details), briefly describe their content and indicate their source(s). 37.2 - Implement the Decision. (FSH 1909.15, ch. 50). 37.21 - Monitor Implementation. Monitor implementation of the action to ensure achievement of desired results. This may require periodic visits to the affected area, or it may involve telephone conversations with field personnel, representatives of local government, and other sources to obtain current impressions of the action's effects. During the monitoring phase, the social science analyst has an opportunity to assess the accuracy of social effects projections and to identify any program adjustments that would help reduce unwanted effects. The analyst must report any important discrepancies between expected and actual effects to the decisionmaker or designated staff personnel. 38 - TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES APPENDIX. 38.1 - The Social and Economic Overview. The social and economic overview is a description and analysis of selected social, geographic, demographic, historical, and economic conditions and trends with projections into the future. An overview may be a very general document for use as a reference in routine Forest planning or a more focused report dealing with the social and economic context and possible effects of a site-specific action. The length of the overview depends on the scope and complexity of the analysis, but the presentation must be concise, relevant, and readable. The responsible official determines whether to prepare a separate overview document. If published, relevant sections of it may be incorporated by reference in other documents. If a contractor prepares the social and economic overview, it is expedient to request a separate, publishable document as background information for a variety of analysis efforts. Normally, a social and economic overview does not include technical economic analyses of Forest Service actions that are available elsewhere; for example, benefit/cost ratio calculations, present net value estimates, or other methods of economic efficiency analysis (FSM 1971). The overview contains social and economic data of general interest, such as the nature of the existing economic structure, labor force characteristics, population shifts, income distribution, industry trends, resource supply needs, transportation factors, land-use patterns, and pertinent social and cultural information (sec. 33.2). The social and economic overview should: 1. Have a table of contents, introductory summary, appropriate graphs and tables, cited data sources, and appendices for detailed supporting data. 2. Define and map the area(s) of influence. 3. Describe the geographic, economic, and social features of the area of influence, its State or regional context, and the links (relationships) between the Forest units and the area of influence. 4. Discuss the lifestyle, values, concerns, social organization, population characteristics, civil rights considerations, and land-use patterns of the area of influence and explain their significance to Forest management (sec. 33). 5. Identify relevant social and economic trends and project their future course. Project trends and expected Forest uses 10 to 20 years into the future and consider trends over the past 20 or 30 years to aid in interpreting current and future conditions. Trends may be extended further, but longer range projections are less accurate. 6. When appropriate, present a strategy for the analysis of major Forest Service actions currently under consideration. Depending on the available data, it may be possible to analyze salient issues, identify critical social and socioeconomic variables for estimating effects, discuss the effects of various action alternatives, or cite sources and methods for acquiring necessary data. 7. Note problems of data reliability, inconsistency, or gaps in relevant information that may affect the estimation of effects (40 CFR 1502.22). 38.2 - Sources of Social Data. 1. U.S. Census Documents. Summary volumes are available in most libraries and from the Government Printing Office. Complete sets are in most university libraries. These include periodic censuses of population, housing, agriculture, and business for the Nation, States, and counties. Censuses have comparable data for past decades and are thus very useful for documenting trends. Two summary publications, Statistical Abstract of the United States and the City and County Data Book, are valuable desk references. 2. Other Federal Agencies. Other resource management and recordkeeping agencies, such as the Bureau of Land Management, Department of Energy, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Corps of Engineers, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation publish useful information. Some of these agencies have compiled social data for resource programs which, when applicable, may be incorporated by reference (40 CFR 1502.21 and FSH 1909.15, sec. 11.4 and sec. 32.4). Comparing data early in the analysis helps ensure the use of valid, consistent sources. 3. State and Local Government Agencies a. Planning Agencies. These agencies collect data on such subjects as local budgets, school enrollments, tax assessments, zoning regulations, current population estimates and projections, tax receipts, and anticipated development activities. Because Forest Service planning regulations (36 CFR 219.7) require a review of State and local planning efforts as part of the Forest Service planning process, contact and coordinate with these planning agencies. Examine their programs for the utility of their data and avoid a duplication of effort (40 CFR 1501.7 and 40 CFR 1506.2). b. State Departments. Each State has departments of government that compile data about economic trends, social services and other State programs, agriculture and forestry, environmental quality, State parks and recreation, energy, and other subjects. Some States publish this information in yearbooks and all States issue periodic topical reports. Health and welfare data include vital statistics, health and illness data through time, case load by type, information about specific populations, and inventories of medical personnel, support equipment, and facilities. Public safety agencies have information about crime, emergency service capacities, and problem areas and trends. Job service offices have information about employment conditions and trends. c. Universities. Many university departments and social science research institutes conduct studies and publish materials about social and economic conditions, population shifts, resource development, public opinion, and other topics relevant to social impact analysis. d. Economic Development Groups. Local or regional development offices provide data about current business activities, natural resource availability, labor force composition, employment data, impending development activities, housing occupancy information, and tourist facilities. Normally, information such as the available utility services and the number of connections by type and year are available. 4. Public and University Libraries. Libraries afford convenient access to many of the publications suggested above. They also employ reference librarians to assist patrons who seek specialized data. Libraries frequently have special collections that provide social information of State and local interest, including local history. 5. Business and Industry. The business sector may provide plans and time schedules for resource development projects, annual reports to stockholders, payroll and employee data, and information about new technologies with social and economic implications. 6. Special-Interest Organizations. Wildlife, recreation, wilderness, and other special interest groups offer information about environmental concerns, recreation use patterns, and the perspective of their membership. 7. In-Service Data Sources. Many pertinent data sources exist within the agency. a. Public Participation Data. Public participation data, such as letters, response forms, petitions, and recorded meeting notes, provide valuable insights into some of the issues raised by the general public. Commonly, the participants in this process do not represent the total population and the data omit some affected segments (FSH 1609.13). b. Forest Service Personnel. Agency employees are especially helpful in documenting historical events that have helped to shape the communities associated with the Unit. These personnel can provide personal observations, local written data, or leads to additional respondent contact data. c. Other Sources. Agency environmental documents, maps, computer inventories, and other sources provide accessible, authoritative background information useful in preparing social overviews or estimating the effects of proposed actions. 38.3 - Projecting Social Effects. 1. Trend Extension. Trend extension is the projection of past population, economic, and social trends to selected years in the future. Projections usually are quantitative and based on a specific set of assumptions. For example, on the basis of past recreation increases and population growth, one can project that recreation use from the area of influence will increase by 8 percent per year during the next 10 years and that recreation visitation from cities and suburbs near the area of influence will increase by 10 percent per year. Alternatives that will not meet that level of use may have adverse social effects, such as crowded campsites and diminished enjoyment. Trend extension can be a quantitative projection of units (houses, miles of road) that will be produced per year. One can plot straight line or curvilinear projections mechanically on graphs. It is crucial to report all of the assumptions (for example, population growth) behind the projection. Make allowances for any anticipated events that would change the assumptions and thus change the projected trends. 2. Population Multipliers. The term "multiplier" denotes a number that expresses the relationship between population growth and it social and economic effects. The use of multipliers is based on the assumption that changes in employment and population size are the key to predicting other social changes such as an increased demand for facilities and services. Two approaches are summarized below. First, assess social effects and needs quantitatively, such as numbers of doctors, hospital beds, police cars, classrooms, or overnight campsites. Then calculate changes in service levels for some standard population unit, such as 1,000 persons, basing them on average needs (available in sources such as sec. 38.5, no. 2). For example, each additional 1,000 people in an area may suggest a need for one more doctor and four hospital beds. Use judgment to adjust results; for example, an area with 3,000 people already may have 5 doctors and 20 hospital beds, or only one doctor and no hospital. The social scientist also uses employment fluctuations resulting from changes in Forest Service programs or policies as a basis for estimating population changes. If proposed rural development would create 500 "basic" jobs during the construction phase and if field work indicates that 70 percent of the workers will be nonlocal and average 1.3 dependents per worker, the increased population could result in serious social and economic impacts. It is possible to estimate the increased demand for housing, medical, educational, and recreational facilities. Using other multipliers derived from the experiences of other populations in similar situations, it is also possible to project the number of new "nonbasic" jobs in business and government. At the county level, each new basic job usually creates between 0.5 and 2.5 additional nonbasic jobs providing goods and services. Observe some cautions in the use of population and employment multipliers. The relationship between commodities and employment is not rigid because transportation costs for raw materials, unused production or service capacity, overtime, and automation may change the relationship between increased economic activity and the number of workers. Similarly, the tie between new jobs and population change is not rigid because of differences in local-hire employment rates, rural commuting, the duration of the project, locally available amenities, housing market conditions, educational opportunities, the diversity of the local economy, and other factors. When computer models are not available or are inapplicable, the use of employment and population multipliers is another technique for projecting the effects of changes into the future. These multipliers provide a systematic, traceable method for identifying direct and indirect effects of an action. Be sure to document the assumptions behind the technique when reporting the estimates. Appropriate local multipliers should be available from a unit economist, the county planner, or from State sources. 3. Community Comparisons. To learn about the possible social consequences of a proposed action, locate comparable communities that have experienced a similar action. Estimate the effects of the alternatives on the basis of what occurred in the comparison communities. The community comparison technique is more useful in analyzing site-specific developments than in land management planning social impact analyses (SIAs). For example, when the proposal is for a new ski resort, observe what happened in another place where a similar resort was built. Match the comparison community and the proposed action as closely as possible with the community and project under analysis, for example, in size, rural-urban composition, distance from metropolitan areas, and major sources of employment. Various social effects bibliographies list case studies that may be reviewed to identify common patterns. (sec. 38.5). 38.4 - Sample Matrices and Narratives of Social Effects. Exhibits 01 through 5 are examples of matrices and narrative statements that can illustrate social effects. 38.4 - EXHIBIT 01 IS A SEPARATE DOCUMENT 38.4 Exhibit 2 IS A SEPARATE DOCUMENT 38.4 - Exhibit 03 Sample Narrative Summarizing the Social Effects of the No-Action Alternative County Seats--Capable of handling highest population growth rate in the area of influence without undue strain. Residential growth occurring on farm and forest land. Newcomers share many values with oldtimers, and sense of cohesion is moderate. County changes are in the directions desired, so sense of control is high. West Side Rural Areas and Communities--Cohesive communities, some loss of young adults because of lack of jobs. Analysis predicted the decline in logging and timber stand improvement work is likely to pick up the slack, so sense of control and self- sufficiency is high. Population and land-use patterns are stable. East Side Rural Areas and Communities--Retirees and recreationists are coming into the area, with resulting loss of ranch and forest land to residential uses. Increased concern over visual qualities. Increased conflict between newcomers and oldtimers. However, newcomers regard life in the area as a pronounced improvement over their previous residences. Oldtimers see a loss of control and a new way of life replacing traditional ways. 38.4 - Exhibit 04 Sample Narrative Summarizing the Social Effects of Alternative C County Seats--Few social effects different from those of the no- action alternative, except for Pineville which experiences growth and some disruption from the resort development. West Side Rural Areas and Communities--Reduction in harvest, roading, and timber stand improvement all have some negative effects. Unemployment and out-migration to nearby areas increase somewhat and public and private services decrease. Strains on facilities but local formal and informal networks help to cope. Community cohesion increases. East Side Rural Areas and Communities--Change that has been occurring slows with improvement in health of ranching industry. Recreational and retirement newcomers not growing as rapidly and become better integrated into the community. South Valley Communities--The growth and changes in lifestyles associated with the Green Pine resort will cause significant change, value conflicts, and disruption. Oldtimers and former newcomers become more cohesive, but because of mutual opposition to resort. Environmental degradation a major concern. Some negative impacts on resort patrons and employees as tensions make communities less hospitable. 35.4 - EXHIBIT 05 IS A SEPARATE DOCUMENT. 38.5 - References. The following sources are available from the Social Analysis Library at the Office of Environmental Coordination in the Washington Office. Most volumes are also available at a university library. 1. Finsterbursch, Kurt; Wolf, C.P., Eds. Methodology of social impact assessment, 2nd ed. Stroudsburg, PA: Hutchinson Ross; 1981. 2. Finsterbusch, Kurt. Understanding social impacts: assessing the effects of public projects. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications; 1980. 3. Leistritz, F. Larry; Murdock, Steven H. The socioeconomic impact of resource development: methods for assessment. Boulder, CO: Westview Press; 1981. 4. Murdock, Steven H.; Leistritz, F. Larry. Energy development in the western United States: impact on rural areas. New York: Praeger; 1979. 5. Selby, John; Wenner, Lambert. Annotated social analysis bibliography for Forest Service programs. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Environmental Coordination; 1983. 6. Gale, Richard P. Social assessments reference notebook. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service; 1981. 7. Voland, Maurice E.; Fleischman, William A., Eds. Sociology and social impact analysis in Federal natural resource management agencies. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service; 1983. 8. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. County and city data book. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1983. 9. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Statistical abstract of the United States. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office; published annually. 10. Allen, Roy, et al. Reference guide to social and economic techniques. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Office of Planning; 1982. 11. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Guide to social effects assessment. Billings, MT: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Mountain West Research and Wyoming Research Corporation; 1982. 12. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Summary research report: BLM social effects project. Billings, MT: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Mountain West Research and Wyoming Research Corporation; 1982. 13. Weber, Bruce A.; Howell, Robert E. Coping with rapid growth in rural communities. Boulder, CO: Westview Press; 1982. 14. Wenner, Lambert N. Minerals, people, and dollars: social, economic, and technological aspects of mineral development. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Region, Minerals and Geology; 1984.