1909.17,30-34 Page 1 of 27 FSH 1909.17 - ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS HANDBOOK CHAPTER 30 - SOCIAL ANALYSIS Changes in the availability or in the permitted uses of forest resources can be of great importance to residents of affected communities, to commercial users, to recreationists, and to the public at large. Social impact analysis is one of the tools the Forest Service uses to identify the effects of proposed actions on these forest publics. This chapter sets forth basic principles, techniques, and general guidance for conducting social impact analysis. 30.1 - Authority. 1. The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) requires integrated use of the natural and the social sciences in all planning and decisionmaking that affect the human environment. The human environment includes the natural and physical environment and the relationship of people to that environment (40 CFR 1508.14). NEPA requires that unquantified environmental amenities and values receive the same serious consideration as economic and technical factors. 2. Forest Service land management planning regulations require the integration of social science knowledge into the forest and regional planning process (36 CFR 219.5). 3. Forest Service Manual section 1973.03 mandates social impact analysis if potential social effects of agency policies or actions are important to the decision. 30.2 - Objectives. The objectives of conducting social impact analysis are to: 1. Inform agency decisionmakers and publics of the variety of potential social effects that might occur as a result of agency actions. 2. Identify potential public needs and concerns that resource managers must consider in their decisionmaking. 3. Assess the effectiveness of program planning, implementation, and social impact mitigation. 30.4 - Responsibility. 1. Social Science Analysts. Social Science Analysts should work with other specialists using an interdisciplinary approach to: a. Plan the depth and focus of environmental analysis, the analytical tasks and standards, the public participation plan, and other analysis tasks. b. Identify social science information needs and collect, organize, and interpret necessary data. 30.5 - Definitions. The following are concepts used in this chapter. Other applicable definitions are in other chapters of this handbook; 40 CFR 1508; FSM 1905; FSH 1909.17, section 05; and FSH 1909.15, section 05. 1. Area of influence. A delineated geographic area that includes the population most affected by past, present, or proposed actions of a Forest Service Unit. Depending on circumstances, an area of influence may be local to inter- national in its scale. An area of influence used in estimating economic and social effects of an action is also called an impact analysis area. 2. Community cohesion. The degree of unity and cooperation evident in a community as it defines problems and attempts to resolve them. 3. Community stability. A community's capacity to handle change without major hardships or disruptions to component groups or institutions. Measurement of community stability requires identification of the type and rate of proposed change and an assessment of the community's capacity to accommodate that level of change. 4. Comparison community. A community whose experiences with actions are similar to those presently proposed for another community and whose experiences may be helpful in predicting and mitigating possible adverse effects of the proposed actions. 5. Environmental analysis. (FSH 1909.15, sec. 05). 6. Impact, social (also social effect). A change in social and cultural conditions which directly or indirectly results from a Forest Service action (FSM 1973). 7. Infrastructure. A set of basic public and commercial facilities and support services. Common elements include schools, stores, streets, housing, parks, telephones, water service, police and fire protection, hospitals, and social services. 8. Institutional analysis. An examination of institutions within an area of influence and their expected responses to Forest Service actions. 9. Interdisciplinary team. A group formed to use an interdisciplinary approach to ensure the integrated use of the natural and social sciences and environmental design arts in planning and decisionmaking, as required by the National Environmental Policy Act (FSH 1909.15, sec. 11.7). 10. Lifestyle. (FSH 1909.17, sec. 05). 11. Minority. (FSH 1909.17, sec. 05). 12. Mitigation. (40 CFR 1508.20). 13. Public involvement. (FSM 1905; FSM 1620). 14. Site-specific. A term applied to an action such as a timber harvest, mineral development, or road or water project that involves a limited, often well-defined geographic area. 15. Social analysis. The collection and evaluation of information about the social context and social effects of Forest Service activities. 16. Social category. A classification of people with a common social characteristic, such as age, nationality, occupation, hobby, outlook, or educational level. 17. Social group. People who cooperate to pursue common interests and to attain mutual goals. 18. Social and economic overview. A document or organized file that describes a Forest Service Unit in its social, economic, and historical context. 19. Social impact analysis. A component of the environmental analysis process that uses social science information and methodology to determine how present programs or proposed actions affect humans. 20. Social organization. The structure of a society described in terms of roles, relationshps, norms, institutions, infrastructure, and/or community cohesiveness and stability. 21. Social science analyst. A person who does social science analysis, such as an agency social scientist, a designated social science coordinator, or an outside contractor. 22. Social variable. An indicator used to measure the social impact of Forest Service management alternatives. Examples include population statistics, types of institutions, and personal opinion as reflected in attitudes or as demonstrated by behavior. 23. Subculture. A distinctive pattern of beliefs, values, norms, and customs shared by a portion of the population, often because of a common age, ethnic heritage, occupation, or religious or ideological orientation. 24. Value, social. A shared standard of preference or desirability, such as good health, honesty, success, and prosperity, or the desire to develop natural resources or to preserve natural beauty. 30.6 - Role of Social Impact Analysis in Environmental Analysis. Much social impact analysis in the Forest Service is the work of interdisciplinary teams responding to National Environmental Policy Act and National Forest Management Act requirements. Social impact analysis is usually an important component in the analysis of such actions as legislative proposals, major agency policy changes, land management planning, and site-specific projects with human impacts. Environmental analysis, including social impact analysis, is a flexible process that permits variations in activity sequence and revision of earlier work as the analysis proceeds. The social information required for each analysis varies with the type, complexity, and social importance of the proposed action. In each analysis, use valid existing documentation to avoid duplication of efforts (FSH 1909.15, sec. 11.4). Exhibits 01 and 02 show how social impact analysis tasks are integrated with environmental analysis in the analysis of site-specific proposals and in land management planning. 30.6 -- Exhibit 01 SECTION 30.6 - EXHIBIT 01 IS A SEPARATE DOCUMENT 30.6 -- Exhibit 01 (continued) SECTION 30.6 - EXHIBIT 01 IS A SEPERATE DOCUMENT 30.6 -- Exhibit 02 SECTION 30.6 - EXHIBIT 02 IS A SEPARATE DOCUMENT 30.6 -- Exhibit 02 (continued) SECTION 30.6 - EXHIBIT 02 IS A SEPARATE DOCUMENT 31 - CONDUCT SCOPING. Scoping is a procedure for determining the depth and focus of environmental analysis necessary for making an informed decision (FSH 1909.15, sec. 05). In order to determine the scope of an environmental analysis, the responsible official must know the social context of the proposed action, including the most important issues and concerns. This information is also necessary for estimating the social consequences of an action and its alternatives. Resulting documents also provide potentially affected persons with quantitative and descriptive information about the proposed action (FSM 1973.02). 31.1 - Initiate Social Impact Analysis During Scoping. Initiate social impact analysis when preliminary scoping determines that important social effects could result from a Forest Service decision on a proposed action or its alternatives (FSM 1973.03). This analysis tells the decisionmaker: 1. The variety and intensity of possible social effects. 2. The location of affected populations. 3. The interrelationships between social and other factors. 4. Whether it is possible to mitigate adverse effects that could occur (FSH 1909.15, sec. 24). Designate a social scientist or other person familiar with the affected social environment (hereafter called social science analyst) to compile and help interpret the social information required in the scoping process. 31.2 - Consider Social Conditions in Scoping. Most routine Forest Service actions are small in scale and generate few important social effects. But some major actions such as forest planning, mineral and recreation developments, or a combination of numerous smaller actions produce a complex pattern of impacts that merit careful study. In scoping the current social situation and the possible effects that could result from proposed actions, consider the following factors: 1. Categories of people the activity is likely to affect: for example, residents of nearby communities, forest products industries, forest users, environmental groups, minorities, women, retirees, local business people, and adjacent landowners (40 CFR 1501.7(a)(1)). 2. How the action compares with historical trends: past and present economic activities, rates of population change, community stability, public reactions to similar changes in the past, and local traditions (FSH 1909.15, sec. 61.4). 3. Socioeconomic and sociocultural conditions the action is likely to affect. a. Socioeconomic effects (sec. 35.4) include changes due to the action in income, employment, population, local revenues, and business activity. b. Sociocultural effects (sec. 35.5) include changes in community institutions, values, interpersonal relationships, and perceptions of the environment. 4. Sources of effects: direct, indirect, induced, and cumulative (40 CFR 1508.7 and 1508.8). 5. Duration and intensity of effects: short or long term (FSH 1909.15, sec. 11.2); how significant (40 CFR 1508.27). 6. Location and magnitude of the action: whether it is local, statewide, regional, or national in its effects (FSM 1973.3). 31.3 - Plan the Analysis. Complete these steps in conducting social impact analysis (FSM 1973.1). Plan and coordinate each step as part of the overall environmental analysis (sec. 30.6, ex. 01). 1. Begin a preliminary social investigation as soon as there is a clear understanding of the nature of the proposed action and of the need for social analysis. The following are appropriate scoping objectives for the preliminary investigation: a. Determine the types, range, and intensity of social effects usually associated with such actions. b. Identify groups, communities, and categories of people the action might affect. Delineate the area(s) of influence (sec. 31.41). c. Explore social issues, concerns, and opportunities to ensure that important matters receive appropriate consideration. Learn the background of each issue, who has a stake in the outcome, and possible ways to resolve controversial issues. d. Assess the adequacy of existing data for predicting the impacts of Forest Service activities. For example: Is there sufficient information? Is the information recent and relevant? Focus on the most important issues and concerns (FSH 1909.15, sec. 11.5) and the data required to analyze them. e. Identify the most relevant social variables (sec. 33). f. Determine whether additional field work is necessary to fill data gaps. 2. Analyze the present social situation and existing trends to use as a base for projecting the social effects of different alternatives in agency planning (sec. 34). 3. Work with other specialists to formulate reasonable alternatives and estimate the possible effects of each alternative, including the proposed action (sec. 35). This helps to identify social information needed in the environmental analysis. 31.4 - Identify Agency-Community Linkages. Determine how Forest Service activities and various social categories, groups, and communities affect each other. Usually linkages between the Forest Service and local residents are most numerous and visible. There are also important ties between some Forest Service activities and citizens who do not reside in the immediate area, those interested in wilderness, wildlife, outdoor recreation, and natural resource development. The nature of the proposed action determines the most important links between National Forest units and the affected population. The action may create new links and alter existing ties. It is useful to develop a list of questions to help identify existing linkages and to collect the information needed to describe them. Decisionmakers and knowledgeable resource personnel should review the questions for relevance. The following is a list of suitable questions: 1. Who uses the resources of the Forest Unit? Does the Unit supply a large portion of each user's need for goods and services? 2. Are other local businesses and industries indirectly linked to agency programs? 3. Where National Forest lands are involved, what activities or conditions occur on adjacent lands and what are their ties to the National Forest? 4. What portion of local government revenues depend, directly or indirectly, on agency activities? 5. Do American Indians and other groups have ties to Forest sites and resources? 6. If the proposed action is site-specific, do some individuals and groups have strong feelings about its location and desirability? 31.41 - Determine the Area of Influence. Delineate an area (or zone) of influence large enough to include the people most subject to the direct and indirect social effects of various program alternatives. Many of the strongest and most stable links (sec. 31.4) between the Forest Service Unit and the public are evident in this area. 1. Size. The size of the area of influence depends on the activity. For example, an area influenced by a major recreation development would be much larger than an area affected by the upgrading of a local road. An agency action with widespread social effects may warrant delineation of two or more areas; for example, a local zone of direct, intense, and frequent effects and a larger regional or national zone of more subtle or infrequent effects. In the larger zone, the links to the Unit are usually weaker and the Unit's resources are a less crucial part of the area's economic and social activities. 2. Linkage to Economic Impact Analysis Area. If the area of social influence roughly coincides with the economic impact analysis area for the same action, use the same area for both analyses to simplify social data collection. This is sometimes feasible in integrated land-use planning. However, if there is no identified economic impact analysis area or if it is clearly inconsistent with the area of social influence, select the area of influence appropriate for the social impact analysis. 3. Delineation of Boundaries. When feasible, delineate local areas of influence along county lines to facilitate data collection and coordination with local units of government. When counties are large and internally diverse, be sure to note other distinctive population features caused by mountains, drainages, travel routes, industries, and cultural or lifestyle patterns (sec. 31.42). Similarly, if a larger regional area of influence is a useful tool, define it along county or State boundaries. 31.42 - Delineate Subareas. If possible, divide a diverse area of influence into subareas with distinctive social and economic characteristics. Delineate on the basis of one or a combination of: 1. Community type (for example, size, principal industries, or cultural history). 2. Geographic location (for example, counties or drainages). 3. Proximity to the location of the activity (for example, within easy commuting distance or farther away). 4. The distribution of occupations and/or lifestyles within a rural area (for example, areas where coal miners and ranchers are the dominant residents might be useful units of analysis where coal development is occurring). 5. Other pertinent characteristics, such as settlement patterns or recreation activities, but do not delineate subareas solely on the basis of location of interest groups. Insofar as possible, the subareas should not overlap, yet must include all of the people the action affects. For examples of subareas and their uses, see the sample worksheets and summaries in section 38.4. 31.5 - Consider Social Analysis Documentation. The complexity and importance of the social issues may warrant preparation of a social and economic overview or other reference document for use in the analysis. 31.51 - Social and Economic Overview. A social and economic overview is an optional reference document prepared during scoping for forest land management planning or other major actions. An overview is a published or unpublished report, or an accessible file of data with a summary and interpretation in narrative form (sec. 38.1). A well-designed social and economic overview: 1. Describes the social, historical, and economic context of a Forest Service Unit and identifies problems, opportunities, and potential sources of controversy. 2. Includes the most recent and reliable social, demographic, and economic data. 3. Discusses socioeconomic and sociocultural trends pertinent to Forest programs. 4. Identifies important relationships among physical, biological, economic, and social aspects of forest management. 5. Facilitates the design of effective public involvement programs within the area of influence. 6. Organizes appropriate social and economic information for developing forest plans, programs, or project-specific environmental documents. If the social and economic overview (SEO) is a written document, rather than file data, and copies are readily available, it may be referenced in other environmental documents (40 CFR 1502.21). 31.52 - Other Social Analysis Reference Documents. The responsible official may request other, more focused social background reports for specific projects or situations. Examples are: economic impacts of phosphate mining on ranchers, social effects of a pesticide spraying program, effects of a reduced timber harvest on local businesses, social impacts of a large recreation complex in a retirement area, and social effects of coal development on a neighboring Indian reservation. 31.6 - Identify Special Concerns. Determine if there are areas of social life accorded special consideration by law or tradition. For example, the Forest Service has a legal mandate to protect certain resources, such as cultural sites and historic places (36 CFR 800 and FSM 2360). Also consider the legal rights and existing privileges of minorities, women, adjacent landowners, local governments, and National Forest users (FSH 1909.15, sec. 24). Examples include the right to equal employment opportunities; mining, grazing livestock, or fishing on public lands; the need for access to private inholdings or tribal religious sites; and the health and safety of National Forest users. 31.7 - Develop Criteria. Develop criteria and standards to guide social impact analysis (FSH 1909.15, sec. 11.91). Criteria for social analysis may be derived from Federal laws and policies, public concerns, consultation with other experts, the professional standards of the social sciences, prior experience, and other sources. Criteria are necessary to: 1. Determine the Depth of the Analysis. How to identify the boundaries of the area of influence, level of inventory required, or degree of detail for the discussion of anticipated effects. 2. Select and Measure Variables. How to focus the analysis on social variables that are most relevant to the decision at hand (sec. 33.4). 3. Formulate Alternatives. How to develop reasonable alternatives (FSM 1920, 1950; FSH 1909.15). Other criteria may be necessary to ensure an adequate range of alternatives and to address all major issues. 4. Evaluate Alternatives. How to evaluate social effects of alternatives. The social science analyst shall consider issues, concerns, and opportunities; sociocultural and socioeconomic trends in the area of influence; characteristics and preferences of affected communities; and the expected type and distribution of impacts (sec. 35 and sec. 36.1). 31.8 - Anticipate Data Needs. Social data needs must be consistent in time and effort with the scope of the environmental analysis and the issues the analysis must address. Comprehensive information is necessary to analyze unfamiliar actions and actions that have a high potential for social and economic impacts. 32 - CONDUCT INDEPTH SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS. If the action or its alternatives could have a significant effect on the quality of the human environment (sec. 36.2), a detailed social impact analysis is mandatory. Include findings in an environmental impact statement (FSM 1952). Ensure that the disciplines of the persons conducting the analysis are appropriate to the scope of the analysis and to the issues identified in the scoping process (40 CFR 1502.6). 33 - SELECT VARIABLES. Focus a social impact analysis on public and agency issues and concerns identified during scoping. Select the most appropriate social variables, collect valid data to describe them, and provide the social information necessary for a sound decision. 33.1 - Select Measurable Variables. To compare social conditions before and after a Forest Service action and to determine the significance of changes, select social variables that permit measurement or narrative description of these changes. Choose variables that accurately portray the most important social changes likely to occur under each alternative. Some social variables, such as average age, income, or educational level, are readily available and easily expressed in numbers. It is also possible to measure and report qualitative changes, such as worker morale, community stability, and recreation satisfaction. Except when using scientific survey instruments, it is more meaningful to use brief descriptive phrases or a narrative for analyzing and comparing variables that measure values, attitudes, or other qualitative social behavior (sec. 38.4, ex. 01 through ex. 04). 33.2 - Consider a Wide Range of Variables. Consider the potential effects of each alternative on the lifestyles, attitudes, beliefs, values, social organization, population, land-use patterns, and civil rights within the area of influence (FSM 1973.2). Select relevant variables within these broad categories of effects (sec. 33.3) to measure potentially important changes and to estimate expected effects. Obtain suggestions and data from case studies, environmental documents, acknowledged experts, and other sources that describe the experiences of comparable Forest Service Units and communities affected by similar actions. Identified issues and concerns suggest additional variables that merit examination. 33.21 - Lifestyles. Patterns of work and leisure, customs and traditions, and relationshps with family, friends, and others are elements of lifestyle. Focus an analysis on individual and community lifestyles that Forest Service policies and practices affect. People may be affected because of: 1. Direct economic relationships to the Forest Service, for example, through employment in an industry using Forest Service commodities (timber, minerals, or forage) or holding special-use permits (ski areas, resorts, outfitters, and guides). 2. Induced economic effects from Forest Service activities; as in locations where recreational use of the National Forest is the foundation for the local tourism industry. An agency policy change that modifies forest recreation might affect employment in hotels, restaurants, and industries that provide supplies and services to the primary tourist industry (laundry and dry cleaning, food products, or fuel). 3. Esthetic and amenity ties to forest lands; for example, recreationists and the residents of adjacent private subdivisions place a high value on either the esthetic amenities of public lands (such as open space, scenery, peace, and solitude) or the amount, kind, and quality of recreation opportunity. 33.22 - Attitudes, Beliefs, and Values. Consider the feelings, preferences, and expectations people have for forests and the management and use of particular areas. Examples include the desire to harvest a forest's commodities or enjoy its esthetic qualities; preferred or unwanted management practices; or the desire to preserve familiar, sacred, archaeological, and historic sites. Forest settings or products have emotional meanings to many people. American Indians (and others) use National Forest sites for spiritual renewal and cultural observances. Cedar groves, trails, firewood, Christmas trees, huckleberries, solitude, wind in the treetops, streams, landscapes, and wildlife have significant emotional and symbolic meanings to many people. Changes in Forest Service policy may result in practices that have an impact on people's feelings about agency activities: their likes, dislikes, perceptions, and fears. Important components of these feelings include their sense of personal freedom, self-sufficiency, and control over their future. Public involvement and interview data provide impressions about personal and community values and value changes. It is also possible to measure these impressions scientifically by using attitude scales. Changes in demographic characteristics (such as rapid growth and loss of jobs) often affect attitudes, beliefs, and values, as well as the other social categories discussed here. 33.23 - Social Organization. Look for effects on three dimensions of social organization: social institutions, community cohesion, and community stability (sec. 30.5). Institutions such as the family, school, businesses, and city government satisfy human needs. Rapid population growth in a town might affect all of these components. Local governments experience fiscal pressures from increased demand for public schools and services. Retail businesses expand along with membership in civic groups and churches. The influx of new people with different lifestyles and values is a source of stress to some residents and weakens community cohesion. New and old residents have divergent needs and different ways to satisfy them. Community stability is weakened when changes are disruptive enough to interfere with community efforts to solve problems and meet the needs of residents. 33.24 - Population Characteristics. Consider population variables, such as the size, rates of change, and composition of the population. These are potentially very important when major Forest Service actions change the number or type of locally available jobs, community services, and housing options. However, most Forest Service actions do not involve substantial population changes. 33.25 - Land-Use Patterns. Review the types, intensity, and spatial distribution of land uses; for example, agricultural, industrial, residential, or recreational uses. Forest Service actions may affect the location, density, and type of land use; the proportion of open space; pollution levels; the supply of water; and energy resources. 33.26 - Civil Rights. Consider the effects of each alternative on civil rights, minority groups, women, and consumers (FSH 1909.15, sec. 24). The social categories described in section 33.2 are appropriate areas to investigate for civil rights effects. The phrase "civil rights" implies fair and equal treatment under the law, both within the agency and in its relations with the public (FSM 1703). The Forest Service participates in special programs to enhance opportunities for equal participation of women, minorities, and the handicapped (FSM 1761 and 1762). Identify and document instances in which a proposed action may adversely affect civil rights. 33.3 - Select Key Variables. Each category of social effects (sec. 33.2) includes many variables, and some of them may be important to the decision on a proposed action. Exhibit 01, Reminder List of Social Variables, provides a handy reference list of variables that are measurable numerically or by means of attitude surveys, expert opinion, or personal observation. Most of these variables are not significant factors in the analysis of routine Forest Service actions. However, major programs, policy changes, and site-specific actions along with combinations of lesser actions, such as mines, ski areas, energy facilities, or timber harvests, can have important effects on many of these and on other variables. 33.3 - Exhibit 01 Reminder List of Social Variables When the social effects of a proposed action may be important to a decision, identify and analyze the appropriate social variables. The following variables have been identified in a variety of previous environmental analyses. They are grouped into the six categories of social effects described in section 33.2. Consider a variable if: a. There might be significant variations in the effects expected under different alternatives. b. It may be possible to resolve or better understand an issue or concern because of an analysis of this variable. 1. Lifestyles a. Types of jobs available; these vary by skills, income, season, and business cycle. b. Percentage of unemployed in the local labor force. c. Family income and consumption patterns. d. Size, number, and characteristics of ethnic cultures and subcultures. e. Existing and incoming occupational subcultures. f. Recreation preferences, use patterns, and amenity options. g. Degree of privacy, isolation. h. Relationship of lifestyle to infrastructure and forest resources (mill employee, recreationist, or retired person). 33.3 - Exhibit 01--Continued 2. Attitudes, Beliefs, and Values a. Public conceptions of appropriate uses of forest land. b. Scope and intensity of demonstrated support or opposition to the proposed action. c. Customs and traditions in the affected area. d. Religious or subcultural orientations toward certain sites or resources. e. Local perceptions of incoming workers, recreationists, or retirees with different lifestyles. f. Attitudes about economic development by outsiders. g. Programs of organized special interest groups. 3. Social Organization a. Community cohesion (degree of unity and cooperation). b. Community stability (ability to absorb and manage change). c. Source and focus on leadership. d. Family and friendship networks. e. Traditions of mutual trust and aid. f. Nature and frequency of antisocial behavior, including crime, delinquency, drug and alcohol abuse, and vandalism. g. Child and spouse abuse, fights, rowdy behavior, and other symptoms of stress and anxiety. 33.3 - Exhibit 01--Continued h. Infrastructure capacity: housing, schools, utilities, streets and highways, shopping facilities, social services, medical services, parks, and other recreation sites. i. Tax structure and rates; other public revenues. j. Type, diversity, and membership of service and special-interest organizations in the affected area. k. Opportunity for effective participation in Federal, State, and local governments. 4. Population a. Number, density, and distribution of residents and visitors, including seasonal variations. b. Age and sex characteristics of residents, in-migrants, and visitors. c. Racial and ethnic composition. d. Types, rates, and duration of in-migration and out-migration. e. Available human resources (educational level, talents, skills). 5. Land-Use Patterns a. Existing land uses, such as timber, wildlife habitat, recreation, mining, and grazing, and their interactions. b. Compatibility of proposed changes in use with present uses of the site and adjacent lands. c. Agency use of fire, herbicides, pesticides; clearcutting practices. 33.3 - Exhibit 01--Continued d. Extent of pollution and waste disposal. e. Sites of historical, cultural, or scenic value. f. Zoning requirements. 6. Civil Rights a. Civil rights implications related to any or all of the variables listed in the above five categories. b. Barriers to equal access by minorities and handicapped created or removed through the proposed action(s). c. Past and present evidence of discriminatory practices in the locale and the potential interaction of this with the proposed action(s). d. Potential for participation as contractors or subcontractors by small business, minority-owned business, small disadvantaged business, and women-owned business concerns in contracts, grants, and cooperative agreements generated by the proposed action(s). 33.4 - Apply Selection Criteria. Reduce the number of appropriate variables by eliminating those that fail to meet analysis needs or standards. The following criteria help to determine this. Relevance and potential significance are the most important criteria; consider them first. Then screen variables that meet these criteria against other criteria. 1. Relevance. The variable actually relates to the proposed action. To locate relevant information: a. Determine the nature of the proposed action; that is, what activities are expected. Also consider when, where, why, and how the action could occur. b. Identify who could be affected by the action and its alternatives. Explore how these persons might be affected. c. Decide whether analysis of the variable helps to understand the issues identified during scoping. d. Determine what else the decisionmaker should consider before selecting an alternative. 2. Significance. Forest Service actions (or other alternatives considered) affect or are affected by the variable, and the potential effects are important. 3. Availability. It is possible to obtain data to describe changes in the variable. 4. Efficiency. Measurement of the variable reduces the need for other data and measures. 5. Sensitivity. The measure of the variable clearly registers changes because of the proposed action. 6. Reliability. The measure yields consistent results. 7. Validity. The measure truly represents the variable condition. 34 - COLLECT AND INTERPRET DATA. Obtain social data from Forest Service units; other Federal, State, and local agencies; private sector groups; conversations with informed residents; and personal observations during field visits (sec. 38.2). 34.1 - Gather Social Data. Most sociocultural and socioeconomic data fall into four categories: (1) statistics, (2) written material, (3) observations, and (4) respondent contact data. There is no uniform "best" category of information available for all social variables. Use the selection criteria in section 33.4 to help identify appropriate information. 34.11 - Statistics. Look for pertinent statistical data. These include numerical tabulations of population characteristics (age, sex, income, and labor force categories) or types of behavior (such as patterns of outdoor recreation and interview or questionnaire survey responses). Some data (for example, the U.S. Census) come directly from the people involved and are a matter of public record. If data are obtained without the conscious knowledge of the persons or groups tabulated, it may be necessary to treat these data as confidential. The most useful statistical data are those collected at regular intervals and with fairly consistent standards because these data allow for comparisons over time. 34.12 - Written Materials. Determine social conditions and effects from existing written materials that provide factual information or report social behavior (including attitudes, beliefs, and values). Examples are letters to editors, newspaper articles, written testimony, local histories, graduate theses, annual reports, and research studies. Content analysis systems help analyze written data (FSH 1609.13). Some of these systems store information in a retrievable form and yield tabulated summaries of the results. 34.13 - Observations. Derive observations from talking with people, watching live television coverage of events, attending community meetings and other events, and system-atically monitoring and recording selected variables. Use caution in the way you gather data. A set of nonrandom observations may yield data that are unrepresentative of the local population or too diverse for meaningful generalizations. Observational data are usually rich in context and meaning and can increase the understanding of the possible effects of an action. Such data are important sources of information for understanding conditions and trends in rural areas where other data are limited. Procedures for collecting observational data are similar to first-hand investigative reporting and require a degree of immersion in the community. Increase data credibility by keeping careful field notes on each event observed; specify time, place, occurrences, persons involved, and other pertinent details. 34.14 - Respondent Contacts. Seek and record respondent-contact data. Options include the results of interviews, opinion surveys, or other direct-contact methods used to learn more about people's attitudes, opinions, experiences, and preferences. Keep in mind the following attributes of such data: 1. Respondents sometimes provide valuable information or insights that are not available from other sources. 2. Most of the data collected consist of attitudes or self- reports of behavior rather than actual behavior. 3. Unless a random sample is used, the responses are not representative of the total population. 4. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) approval is necessary for Federal Government-sponsored surveys where 10 or more people receive the same set of questions (5 CFR 1320; FSM 1377). Consider conducting surveys when social information vital to the analysis is lacking and existing surveys by other Federal agencies or State and local governments cannot supply the desired information. Interviews and questionnaires are good ways to get large numbers of responses from a cross-section of the population. Questionnaires are inexpensive to administer and computers can tabulate them readily, whereas interviews provide more immediate and detailed information. Design and pilot test the survey instrument and obtain OMB approval before collecting and processing the data. Consult a standard social science methods textbook for details about developing and administering surveys (sec. 38.5). Forest Service social science analysts frequently obtain information from knowledgeable agency employees and from existing public response files (sec. 34.2). These sources are very accessible, pertinent to the analysis, and exempt from OMB clearance requirements. Exhibit 01 lists examples of each of the four types of social data. 34.14 - Exhibit 01 Examples of Four Types of Social Data1 1. Statistical Data a. Demographic data (population size, age structure, percent married, number and permanence of households). b. Housing vacancy rates, tourist facility occupancy rates, average rent paid, percentage of owner-occupied dwellings. c. Traffic counts, vehicle registrations, commuting time, transportation alternatives. d. City or county hospital beds, school classrooms, power generating capacity, telephone hookups, full-time judges and police officers, social services case loads. e. Employment, income, weeks worked per year, worker turnover, absenteeism, distance to work. 2. Written Data a. Letters to the editor, Forest Supervisor, or District Ranger. b. Research studies, novels, nonfiction accounts, newspaper articles, radio and television documentaries. c. Written testimony (and transcribed oral comments) at hearings and listening sessions. d. Posters, circulars, and newsletters and formal resolutions from interest groups. e. Historical records and documents, newspaper archives, annual reports, feasibility studies, environmental statements. 34.14 - Exhibit 01--Continued 3. Observational Data a. Systematic observation of use patterns or conditions (what people say or do about the appearance of their neighborhoods, smoke or dust problems, water quality, and recreation areas). b. Reports of behavior or "climate" at hearings, meetings, or rallies. c. Land and resource uses (visual evidence of effects, whether legal, illegal, temporary, or permanent). d. "Unobtrusive" measures (noting evidence of litter, paths, fishermen, camping equipment 4. Respondent Contact a. Public opinion polls, social surveys (to learn the number of people who believe that their neighborhood is deteriorating, favor or oppose proposals, would take another job, or express concern about unemployment). b. Interviews with agency personnel. c. Data collection via user registration, permits, applications. d. Agency "response forms" (citizen comments about Forest Service alternatives) or visitor use forms. Regional Offices of Information must approve the use of response forms. e. Onsite user interviews (traffic destination surveys, user satisfaction studies). f. Ballot measure votes (special district formation, legislative proposals). g. Citizen and "expert" comments on potential impacts. 1Do not regard this as a standard list. 34.2 - Review Public Participation Data. Forest or Regional Information Offices usually maintain files of letters, response forms, newspaper articles, and other data related to current agency programs. These files are readily accessible and can help identify likely issues, potentially affected people, and additional sources of information. The files do not contain sufficient information for an indepth social analysis but they may be a good source of initial data. Public participation files are most useful when they are up-to- date, oriented toward the same actions and potentially affected populations as the present analysis, and extensive enough to provide a range of individual and group perspectives. 34.3 - Compile and Verify Data. Data pertinent to the issues or concerns are important for evaluating alternatives. Use a number of sources and methods to derive data on social conditions and to estimate social effects. For example, observation provides clues to needed respondent-contact data (which questions are of public concern?). Using several data sources enables one to evaluate the validity of each source. If there is a close correspondence between what is indicated by statistical data and by observational data, each source may be valid. Use as many types of data (sec. 34.1) as necessary to describe the total affected environment adequately and to identify possible effects of each alternative (40 CFR 1502.16). Review available statistical data and written social data to identify additional data needs. Serious errors may result when you use data from one source to extend trends identified by another source unless the data are comparable; that is, the two sets have been compiled under the same standards. For example, one data source indicates that 20 percent of the local labor force works in the wood products industry, but the computation does not include government, agriculture, and the unemployed. A more recent source includes one or more of these categories, and as a result, wood products employees appear to be only 15 percent of the total labor force. 34.4 - Interpret Data. Social information is sometimes extensive and may be inconsistent. The analyst's task is to present the information in a way that increases its value to the decisionmaker. 1. Identify and focus the analysis on the most relevant and potentially significant social variables (sec. 33.4). 2. Analyze these variables to determine the social conditions, environmental relationships, and anticipated social effects most pertinent to the decision. For example, if the proposal is for a pesticide spraying program and the program is likely to have social effects, focus the analysis on: a. The variables most likely affected. b. The nature and severity of the effects. c. Individuals and groups interested in or affected by the action and the basis for their support or opposition. d. Possible ways to mitigate unwanted social effects. When interpreting data, it is essential to see interest groups in a larger social context that includes other view-points and to consider events in a historical perspective. Increase the information value of items selected for the analysis by fitting them into a larger social context, organizing them chronologically, and projecting them into the future. 34.41 - Minimize Bias. The social science analyst must make a deliberate effort to be impartial in the analysis. What is a positive effect to one group may be negative or unimportant to another, and the analyst must clearly indicate this when presenting the results of the analysis. 34.42 - Consider All Affected People. Consider the social effects of an action and its alternatives on each potentially affected group or category of people. Do not limit social analysis to the concerns of organized interest groups because: 1. The analysis of public involvement materials system- atically considers expressed concerns of interest and preference groups. 2. Social impact analysis seeks a comprehensive view of social effects. Some potentially affected people are not members of a vocal interest group. Interest groups seldom include a representative sample of the affected population. 3. Members of interest groups also belong to other social units (occupations, neighborhoods, or ethnic groups), so agency actions may affect each differently. A knowledge of the motives, goals, and expectations of each group or category provides a basis for predicting the social effects of agency actions. Explore these early in the analysis to expedite the estimation of effects (sec. 35) when the agency has formalized alternatives. Potentially affected interest groups and categories with special needs or concerns might include: American Indians, other racial or cultural minorities, older and handicapped citizens, commodity users (timber, minerals, or grazing lands), women, recreationists, outfitters and guides, conservation groups, and adjacent landowners. 34.43 - Establish Time Frames. Most current statistical data sources date back at least 20 to 30 years and thus provide a basis for identifying and projecting trends. This information is necessary in the formulation of a "no-action" alternative to use as a basis for estimating the effects of other alternatives (sec. 35.1). A proposed action may continue much longer, but it is difficult to project most economic and social trends more than 10 or 20 years into the future with some assurance of accuracy or certainty. 34.5 - Organize Data. Organize information efficiently to facilitate scoping, formulating alternatives, estimating the effects of alternatives, and identifying mitigation measures. Begin data organization at the onset of the analysis process and continue as you acquire new information and insight. 34.51 - Use Appropriate Graphics. Maps, graphs, and other graphic aids efficiently summarize and facilitate comparison of data. Use a Forest Service map or a State road map to define and illustrate the area of influence. For instance, use dotted lines to delineate activity locations or analysis subareas. Often, the area of influence is small enough to portray in adequate detail on a single page. When using a Government map, cite the source. Obtain written permission before publishing maps obtained from the private sector. Graphs are effective for portraying relationships, whether among social units, time periods, or steps in a process. Tables permit easy comparison of data such as unemployment rates or population shifts over time. Matrices are useful for comparing two sets of data in several ways. For example, list agency alternatives on one axis of a matrix and different social variables on another. Then summarize the effects of each alternative on each variable in the squares and compare them (sec. 38.4). Photographs or sketches are a good way to convey visual impacts.