The Oak Decline Event Monitor is a program that simulates the effects of oak decline within the confines of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Individual stands are evaluated with a probability/risk rating system to determine the susceptibility of the stand to the effects of oak decline. An oak decline event is scheduled in the FVS multi-year cycle if a drawn random number is less than or equal to the estimated probability in that multi-year cycle. If an event is scheduled, oak decline mortality is leveled against red oak, white oak and hickory species at the end of that FVS cycle. Oak decline induced mortality is determined by the stand risk rating, with greater mortality scheduled for stands with elevated risk.
This is a strategic model that demonstrates the potential loss of oak/hickory timber and habitat (Oak et al. 1988, Starkey et al. 2000) due to oak decline. The user can proactively reduce oak decline risk of forest stands and probability of oak decline events by scheduling appropriate management actions within FVS such as thinning to alter species composition. Once an event is scheduled by the Oak Decline Event Monitor there are no reactive measures the user can take to prevent the loss due to oak decline.