Project Name:Long-term fire Behavior Assessment for Valley Road Fire and Implicatons for Fire and Fuels planning

Abstract: The Valley Road fire burned in September 2005 in the Sawtooth National Forest just south of Stanley. The human ignition occurred just as a weather system with persistent strong southwest, west winds entered the area. The fire grew rapidly reaching more than 12,000 acres in seven days. Although the fire did not reach the community of Stanley, concern exists that a fire with similar behavior may threaten the town and outlying residences. The forest has conducted the Sawtooth Valley Landscape Assessment to address the fire concern and the relationship to recent beetle caused tree mortality. Rare Event Risk Assessment Program (RERAP) was used in the assessment, prior to the 2005 fire season, to determine the probability of fires, ignited in various locations, reaching private property. A new RERAP assessment will be completed using the observed fire weather and behavior in 2005 to determine the probability of the Valley Road fire reaching the fire's final perimeters; the frequency of historic occurrences of the weather event leading to the large fire growth; and the probability of fires originally assessed reaching Stanley given the weather observed during the Valley Road Fire.

Project Funding Source: FMI

Agency Contact: Bobbi Filbert, Sawtooth National Forest

Expected Delivery:  Spring 2007

Products: Sawtooth National Recreation Area Fire Risk Assessment

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