Eco-Watch Dialogues
September 1999

A New Gold Rush and Eleven Other Trends Affecting the Midwest¹
by Mike Vasievich2

The forests of the Midwest are within the reach and influence of millions of people. For example, within a day's drive (500 miles) of Grayling, Michigan, there are 61 million people; 66 million within 1 day of Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri; and 28 million within 1 day of Brainerd, Minnesota. As communities merge, the labels "urban," "rural," "timber-dependent," and "tourist town" aren't as useful as they once were. Brainerd has a fairly large urban population (even larger on weekends), and Chicago uses so much wood fiber that it is truly a timber-dependent town.

How will the pressure of a spreading population shape our social and ecological landscape? Let's look at a dozen prevailing forces--our modern glaciers--that are both grinding and polishing the Midwest landscape:

1. Rural forest land is being consumed for seasonal homes.
   
   There's a gold rush going on in parts of our region, and the urban-forest fringe is expanding at a rapid pace. Rural land is being chopped up to feed the crush of people looking for the good life--the cottage on the lake or the perfect wooded paradise for rest and relaxation. This gold rush generates high demand and high property taxes, putting even more pressure on rural landowners to subdivide their woodlands. Water is an especially strong magnet, and surging shoreline development has huge effects on riparian areas and water resources.
   
   This amenity migration is changing the character of forests and communities. New residents from the city often bring a dramatically different culture that conflicts with traditional residents' culture and changes the rural characteristics they seek. Communities struggle to provide expensive infrastructure like utilities and road access. Houses scattered throughout fire-prone areas present extraordinary challenges for rural fire protection districts. As land uses shift to amenity-based development, less timberland is available for harvest.
   
   The effects of this gold rush are also likely to morph over time. What will change, for instance, when baby boomers retire and convert many seasonal homes into permanent residences?
   
   
2. Forest recreation isn't what it used to be.
   
   The boom economy, cheap gas, an aging population, and hot technology are creating new leisure activities and extending tourism to four seasons. People surge out of the cities on weekends for a fast-paced run at the woods and lakes with their RV's, mountain bikes, off-road vehicles, snow-mobiles, high performance boats, sonar fish-finders, and jet skis. Trends favor short trips, high-quality experiences, and comforts afforded by high tech gear. Associated non-forest opportunities like casinos and golf courses draw people who enjoy playing in the woods as much as they do at the gaming tables and on the links.
   
   Although tourism contributes to local income and employment, managers are now faced with congestion, conflicts between users, and resource-damaging excessive demand. In high-use places, especially popular rivers, use is rationed by permits. The notion that outdoor recreation should be free is falling by the wayside too. New mechanisms to charge user fees on public lands are being developed to allocate costs to those who benefit and to take pressure off general tax coffers.
   
   
3. NIMBY rules.
   
   Though they are not new, NIMBY (not in my backyard) attitudes are stronger than ever. We want a sanitized world where the negatives are out of sight and therefore out of mind. Ads tell us we can have it our way, and, with a strong economy, we think we can afford it too! The upshot of all this is that any action that might change the environment is challenged and appealed. Society has responded with a whole range of laws restricting actions or protecting rights such as the right to farm and to hunt without harassment. Issues like regulatory takings keep bubbling to the surface too. The ability of people with money and power to blockade local change means environmental effects are often "exported" to where people with less money and power cannot resist. Environmental justice may be the new "cumulative effects" of our time-something to consider before we act.
   
   
4. The economy is booming.
   
   The Midwest has experienced a remark-able economic turnaround from earlier rustbelt years with expansions in forest products and tourism. According to a Federal Reserve Bank report, lumber exports from Illinois increased by 758 percent from 1987 to 1994, more than any other sector in that State. Paper exports were second-up by 372 percent. Thanks to low interest rates and a boom in the general U.S. economy, wood demand for housing and remodeling is strong. A second home is now within reach for many families. Those who can't afford to move can at least visit, and cheap gas has encouraged more fuel-hungry SUV's than ever to crowd into tourist towns. The net result is a stronger timber and tourist economy, bringing lots more people to the woods.
   
   
5. Global markets are changing food and fiber supplies.
   
   Agricultural production and policies have shifted due to global competition, forcing U.S. producers to compete in a world market where labor costs are a fraction of ours. In response, U.S. agriculture has intensified on the best lands, and marginal lands are reverting to forest or development. While our currency is strong, we are importing more of our food and fiber. If this should change, or if world politics should destabilize, we may need local farms and forests to produce food and fiber. By allowing these marginal lands to revert to forests without active management, we are missing a great opportunity to secure future supplies.
   
   
6. Society wants sustainable forests.
   
   We're finding that sustainability is hard to define and probably harder to achieve when you consider interactions among biophysical, social, and economic systems. Nevertheless, society wants sustainable forests, and government agencies, regional coalitions, and the forest products industry are searching for holistic and sustainable strategies. Those who have grappled with the realities--the choices and the costs--agree that the road ahead will be bumpy, fraught with tradeoffs that we may not like. If society remains committed to the journey, however, changes in consumer spending, price structures, resource management strategies, and product offerings may be ahead.
   
   
7. Information technology is exploding.
   
   Technology has transformed our lives and our landscapes. People in info-intensive jobs can live in Marquette and work in Manhattan via satellite downlinks, over-night couriers, and faxes. Residents are no longer isolated when they can surf the internet and sample hundreds of television channels. These information channels provide new ways for special interest groups to target large audiences. The effect, it seems, is to heighten awareness and contention over most social issues, including those that involve forests.
   
   
8. The trees keep growing, but it's not the same.
   
   Timber growth is up in our region, as are timber prices and harvests. Enough Lake States wood is cut each year (about 9 million cords) for a continuous cordwood pile that snakes from New York to LA and back, twice. Although forest area is up, the forests themselves are changing. In the Lake States, aspen and birch forests have undergone many changes due to natural succession, human impacts, and changes in land use. (Despite these changes, the aspen-birch forests still comprise the second most common forest type.) Meanwhile, sugar and red maples are becoming more abundant in the Lake States, and even the beloved white pine is starting a comeback.
   
   The large natural disturbances that shaped past forests, like fire and blowdowns, don't seem compatible with current settlement patterns, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. Global climate change, and the more frequent extreme weather events that may come with it, are a wildcard affecting forest composition and condition in ways that are difficult to predict.
   
   At the moment, people are the greatest source of forest disturbance. Lots of people want to alter midwestern forests to make room for expanding cities, roads and rights-of-way, cottages, and supplies of saw logs and chips. At the same time, they want to prevent natural disturbances, like fire, that threaten property. Still others want to re-create presettlement forests. Given these polar positions, contention over fire and harvesting policies is greater than ever.
   
   
9. Some TES species are recovering, others are still in sick bay.
   
   Threatened, endangered, and sensitive (TES) species are always of interest because they are high-profile indicators of our environment and because the Endangered Species Act is such a powerful influence on public policy. Lately, TES species have been getting more attention thanks to the de-listed bald eagle, the rising population of timber wolves in parts of the upper Lake States, and the highest-ever counts of Kirtland's warblers. Despite these successes, work to restore TES species has a long way to go. Concerns for neotropical migratory birds are especially keen. Their wide distribu-tion and sensitivity to broad habitat loss, parasitism, and predation make restoration of these species a substantial challenge.
   
   
10. Exotic species are invading and taking a costly toll.
    
    The invasion of plants, animals, insects, and microorganisms from foreign lands seems worse than ever. While old immigrants, like gypsy moth and Dutch elm disease, continue their march through urban and rural forests, new invaders like the Asian longhorned beetle show up to add to the mayhem. In a few highly publicized cases, SWAT-team rapid attacks, quarantines, and emergency containment research are trying to stop the invasion. Meanwhile, the vast majority of newcomers, like purple loosestrife, zebra mussels, and pine shoot beetles, slip through the net and spread unchecked. Species invasions are a price we pay for a global economy. To avoid this costly toll, we need to be ever vigilant and prepared.
    
    
11. Plentiful deer are munching their way through forests.
    
    Deer are the undesignated beneficiaries of forest subdividing, especially in the expanding urban/forest fringe areas. With few predators to stop them, record numbers of deer now wander through subdivisions, helping themselves to gardens and shrubbery. In forests, repeated clipping is a form of selection; it makes regeneration of tasty tree seedlings all but impossible. In Michigan, 65,000 deer-vehicle collisions occur each year, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in insurance claims. Finally, bovine tuberculosis has now been linked to deer, causing major economic harm to the Michigan cattle industry. Controlled hunts are now being tried, and we'll need to float more solutions to cope with this unintended consequence of landscape fragmentation.
    
    
12. Public land management is being transformed.
    
    As national forest planners revamp their circa-1980's strategic plans, they're facing new public expectations. This time around, people want biodiversity, old growth, rare communities, and healthy ecosystems in addition to timber and recreation. Sorting through the cacophony of voices is a challenging job. States aren't immune from this either, and calls for more holistic approaches to managing State forests ring loud to State managers. Providing guidance on how to manage the changing, patchwork landscape of private ownerships is a special challenge too. Resolving conflict on these varied ownerships isn't easy, fast, or cheap; in fact, we could be in for a long and expensive climb on the learning curve.
    
    

The View From Here

Connect the dots and the picture is clear: As more people demand more from our limited land base, the job of maintaining healthy and productive forests is getting tougher. True innovation will take much new information, collaborative efforts, and a strong social will. As researchers, we believe science-based approaches can bring much-needed objectivity to the table, providing answers that balance interests of all inhabitants of this abundant region.

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¹Vasievich, Mike. 1999. NC News. St. Paul, MN: USDA Forest Service,
North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MN. August/September 1999. pp. 1-3.
²Mike Vasievich is Project Leader, Forest Economics, USDA Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station, East Lansing, MI