Demographic Changes and its Implications
for
Water and Other Natural Resources

Presented by:

Ron Stewart
Deputy Chief for Programs and Legislation
National Leadership Team Meeting
Boise, Idaho

March 25-26, 1999

INTRODUCTION

Two months ago, President Clinton gave reference throughout his State of the Union Address to the nation’s new challenges resulting from the shift in demographics: mainly education, economics, employment and the environment. As a natural resource management agency, these too are our challenges. I see our natural resource challenges being in three general categories.

--Recognize demographic shifts and their implications for resource management.

Implications of future water and other-resource demands need to be addressed due to the expected shift in demographics. We need to recognize future population changes. To the best of our ability, we need to anticipate implications associated with potential changes in the use of our nation’s natural resources.

--Anticipate change in expectations and ways of doing business.

Projected population distribution and composition changes have management implications that go far beyond the traditional thinking of only increases in demands. We can anticipate changes in how we design, deliver and communicate effective conservation messages, policies, procedures, and practices. The shift in demographics not only challenges the management and delivery of services and goods from our National Forests, it will also challenge our communication skills and leadership competencies of the future.

As demographics change, many--if not most--of the natural resource conservation messages and delivery processes used during this century will not be effective in the next century.

--Develop more partners and new relationships.

As America’s make-up changes, so does the public we serve. We cannot accomplish the Forest Service mission by ourselves, nor can we accomplish it solely with the cooperation of our traditional partners. A successful conservation program requires an inclusive public commitment, involvement and support that can best be accomplished by extending partnerships to those who represent the new demographics. Our objective is not to lessen old relationships, but to strengthen existing relationships while building new ones.

Greater diversity in partners may very well provide conduits for new and innovative ideas for more effective public and private sector partnerships for delivery of conservation messages as well as delivery of services and goods from our National Forests to the American public.

Demographic information appears in the news media--newspaper, TV, radio and magazines--almost daily. An informed public knows how to influence change. We can better serve the American public as a land management agency if we use demographic data to anticipate future natural resource values and demands on the National Forests and to develop new communication strategies, leadership competencies, and sources for our future workforce.

In his book, An American Challenged, Dr. Steve Murdock from Texas A&M states that integrating the diverse groups in the populations sufficiently to provide bases for developing and obtaining passage of legislation, and creating and allocating the resources needed to address needs and opportunities, will be difficult at best. Success will come through new communication and people-relationship skills. Leadership has always been complex, but it is likely to be especially difficult for future leaders as they attempt to obtain the level of consensus necessary to lead effective national natural resource programs such as ours.

CURRENT SITUATION

To better serve the American public through sound land stewardship, we must first understand the dynamics associated with the projected population changes. We need to understand how population changes implicate the development of land management policies, programs and legislation.

Unfortunately, we do not presently understand all of the implications between the shifts in demographics and natural resource management. Until we understand the demographic implications, we can not ask the right question that will get us the answers that help us develop more effective environmental justice and education programs or improve the delivery of services and goods to the American public.

Five demographic trends will help us better understand the new population implications which will help us in asking the right questions as seek the needed answers.

--Proximity to National Forests.

From this overhead, as well as the map on the wall, you can see that during the 40-year period between 1950 and 1990, there was a significant growth in the metropolitan areas near the National Forests. There appears to be no slowing down in either people buying land adjacent to the National Forests to build homes or in metropolitan areas extending the city limits to the forest boundary.

Increasing population growth next to National Forests raises many issues. One can literally say that the cities are coming to the Forest. The Forest Service has public drinking water supply agreements with over 900 municipalities across the country. These watersheds serve as the water source for over 14 million people. Plus, we have over 3,000 public water sources that serve our administrative sites and recreation campgrounds. Under the Safe Drinking Water Act, EPA requires each state to do a "source water assessment" to assess contamination of all public water sources by the year 2003. Our research personnel are conducting a review of our sites and will have a draft report of their findings by October 1 of this year.

Dispersed recreation and livestock grazing are major non-point sources of water pollution. Large information gaps exist regarding effects on drinking water sources from dispersed recreation and new ecosystem management strategies. As more people live closer to the National Forests, we can anticipate an increase in dispersed recreation activities. Urban runoff also serves as a non-point source of water pollution, which can affect Forest Service water systems.

As urbanization of the United States continues to expand, and as urban populations continue to dominate the social and political structure of the nation, urbanites’ understanding of the benefits and management investments needed for sound natural resource management, and especially watershed management, will be critical to Forest Service managers and other natural resource land managers.

One of the most effective ways to increase urbanites’ understanding of sound natural resources management is through environmental education. As the American population ages and also becomes more ethnically and racially diverse, environmental education should be developed for a variety of urban residents. For example, it is estimated that by the year 2010, 50 percent of the nation’s youth will be attending urban schools. Minorities, especially Hispanics (The Urban Institute) will represent a growing number of these youth. In addition, the population will continue to age, and Americans are pursuing educational activities throughout their adult years and well beyond retirement. A recent national survey of recreation and environmental attitudes highlighted the interest of American adults in learning about the environment (National Survey on Recreation and the Environment, 1999). However, another national survey reported that even though 68 percent of American adults believe they know at least "a fair amount" about the environment, they averaged just 2.2 correct answers out of 10 (NEETF, 1998). These studies draw attention to the need and opportunity to employ environmental education to increase Americans’ knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding the natural environment and natural resource management. Such education must be developed and implemented for people across their life span, and for a variety of ethnic, racial, economic and cultural communities. This information also highlights the need for more research aimed at understanding the educational process and content of environmental education opportunities in America. Environmental education has the potential to link urban community health and sustainability with global health and sustainability. Thus it should command more attention as we attempt to address the relationship between demographic changes and their impact on natural resources.

--Population growth trends.

This overlay shows population growth trends. The population of the United States is redistributing itself from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. In 1900, 62 percent of the U.S. population resided in the Northeast and Midwest, but by 1990 only 44 percent of the population resided in these two regions. During the 1980s, the concentration of the growth was in the Western and Southern Regions. While the West represent 22 percent of the American population, it represents 43 percent of nation’s population growth during the 1980-90 period. The South represents 34 percent of the American population and represents 45 percent of the nation’s growth during the period of 1980-90.

While the West is the fastest growing region, it is the region with the least amount of available water. The West may well be the place with our next "hot spots". This overlay (Figure 1) shows that the population distribution trend in the West is towards its central part.

For the most part, the projected population growth is within the vicinity of National Forests.

The health of the land and how well it connects to the community and its people influences the socioeconomic welfare of the entire nation. Research shows that the loss of land, water, and land uses affects the sense of social or cultural identity of rural people, which is often based on traditional patterns of land use. In one of the aquifers shared by the United States and Mexico, both nations have done such extensive mining of water that they have reversed the natural groundwater flow. Contaminants in the groundwater of Mexico move across the border to the groundwater of the United States. Increase in water use due to population distribution trends is also hampering our ability to comply with laws such as the Endangered Species Act and the Clean Water Act.

--Aging population.

This overlay shows age population distribution for people over 65. While the majority of the people over 65 years of age live in the East and Midwest, it is projected that they too will migrate to the Southern and Western Regions of the United States. In his State of the Union Address, President Clinton identified our newest challenge as the aging American population, which will nearly double by 2030. The baby-boomers will become the senior boomers.

With the rise of early retirement and medical advances helping the elderly live healthier longer introduces a new population with more leisure time to recreate and do other outdoor activities. The baby-boomers, those born between 1946-1964, comprise 30 percent of today’s population and will be middle age between now and 2011. By 2029, all of the baby-boomers will be 65 years old and older. By 2030, 20 percent of the American population will be over 65 years of age compared to 12 percent in 1990. By 2050, the median age of the non-minority population will be about 45 years of age. In contrast, minorities who will represent nearly 50 percent of the American population in 2050 have a projected median age of 33.

Pre-baby-boomers and baby-boomers that designed our present day recreation facilities and trail programs are rapidly becoming our aging population. Their future recreation needs and interests will change, as they grow older. Plus, the Generation-X recreation needs are not different. Snow skiing and snow boarding are examples of differences in recreation needs for different generations. Today’s recreation programs and facilities are examples of resource investments that require long-term maintenance while their usefulness may change as the population change. Incorporating demographic considerations and involving those who represent the shift in demographics in our strategic planning and in our forest revisions processes is one way to ensure public trust in the expenditure of public funds.

--Change in household structure, education and economics.

Our natural resource management messages and services, especially recreation, are tied to the traditional family structure of four people (father, mother, daughter and son). This is not today’s family structure nor does it reflect future families. In 1990, only 26 percent of the households were married people with children. The fastest growing type of households is a male with a child. Additionally, 50 percent of all households are composed of only 1 or 2 people.

In the area of education, 83 percent of the White population graduates from high school, while some minority populations have not done this well. The absence of quality educational achievements will adversely impact the size of the work force pool from which we can draw our future employees. While our primary task may not be to promote education in general, we have the responsibility to promote careers in natural resource management and related subjects. As the American population changes, it becomes more critical for us to continue our present work with high schools and universities in increasing awareness and promoting interest in careers related to natural resource management.

Both education and family structure affect income levels. Married couple families have an average annual income of $52,000, families headed by a male only $36,000, and families headed by a female only have an annual income of $23,000.

It is projected that demographic shifts in family structure, education and income will result in new and dominant players in our nation’s future social and political structure. Understanding the benefits of sound natural resource management by these new population groups will be critical to Forest Service managers and other natural resource land mangers.

--Increase in racial/ethnic population.

America is becoming more culturally diverse. Prior to the 1960s, more than 50 percent of the immigrants coming to America came from Europe. As a result of the Immigration Act of 1965, nearly 86 percent of today’s immigrants come from other than European countries. By 2050, these new immigrants and their descendents will represent nearly 30 percent of the American population. In his State of the Union Address, President Clinton described the recent immigrants as energizing our culture.

It is projected that 90 percent of the population growth between now and the year 2050 will be racial/ethnic minorities. It is also projected that by 2050, nearly 50 percent of the American population will be racial/ethnic minorities.

These cultural populations understand natural resource agencies less than current populations and have less investment in the future of these agencies. Plus, these new populations’ level of natural resource knowledge varies, as do their land ethics due in part to cultural differences. Our success as leaders in natural resource conservation management depends to a great extent on our ability to connect with these new populations and get their buy-in to the Forest Service mission.

The combination of changing family structure, ethnicity and aging population requires us to rethink and re-evaluate the design of our recreation sites and facilities. Because recreation activities could very well change, we need to take into consideration population changes when developing strategic plans or making long term investments such as recreation facilities.

As the largest employer in natural resource management, we need to understand the implications of population change for the future rate of growth in the labor force and for the characteristics of the labor force over the coming years. Overall, the future labor force in the United States show a labor force that will be increasingly composed of immigrants and their descendants. It will also be a labor force that is older, more female, and more ethnically diverse than at any time in the American history. Traditionally, age, gender, and racial/ethnic groups have had different levels of involvement in different occupations within natural resource management, and have had different levels of educational attainment. All demographic projections suggest that minority populations growth and increased participation of women in the labor force are essential to the overall growth of the entire U.S. labor force in the coming years. Plus, it is evident that the development of human capital—that is the education, training, and skills—is critical to the United States’ ability to compete globally in the coming decades.

RECOMMENDATIONS

We have neither the fiscal nor human resources to find the answers to the many natural resource questions associated with the shifts in demographics. Equally important, we need early-on involvement and participation from those who represent the new populations. The needed solutions to demographic changes and its implications for water and other natural resources can best be accomplished through partnerships and collaboration with those who will be impacted by our decisions.

Our success, to a large extent, will depend on our willingness to incorporate new knowledge and different perspectives to our strategic planning and decision-making processes. We need to work with internal and external "think tanks" as well as academic institutions and grassroots organizations that can provide insights and recommendations that will better position the Forest Service to meet tomorrow’s challenges and remain as a world natural resource leader well into the next century. The opportunities for partnerships and collaboration are available to us. For example, two weeks ago, the leadership from the Julian Samora Research Institute (JSRI) located at Michigan State University met with several of us in the Washington Office. JSRI is an example of ethnic minority based research centers located at major natural resource universities across the country. Their primary objective is to bring a variety of resource disciplines to conduct policy-relevant research on specific ethnic minority groups.

I recommend that we first obtain an inventory of the demographic-related work we are currently doing. The next step should be one that engages research institutions and the new demographic groups in assisting us in: evaluating existing demographic-related work, identifying information that may be missing and formulating the relevant questions that need answers to meet future natural resource demands. I also recommend that we develop solutions in a collaborative way. By working together through its entirety, we can ensure mutual benefits for all of America. Our final step must be one that converts our findings to realistic actions that can be implemented over the next 5-10 years and help prepare us for the future.

SUMMARY

Future water and natural resource issues and solutions are tied to the shift in demographics. We must recognize how demographics will affect the implementation of the agency’s mission, GPRA, Strategic Plan and the Natural Resource Agenda- everything we do.

Public trust will be crucial to gain the needed support and involvement for long-term solutions. Gaining public trust and taking the appropriate action requires addressing questions on future resource issues relative to the expected shift in demographics. Our immediate challenge is to determine what natural resource-demographic related questions need to be answered and what actions we can implement today to better position ourselves for 50 years from today.

We need answers to demographic questions that will pave the way for the Forest Service to meet anticipated water and other related natural resource issues that will face our nation in 20 to 50 years. We want future land managers to remember us by the leadership we demonstrate today instead of what we failed to do.

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