Bayesian Belief Networks, a Potential Tool for Decision Support 

About The Presenter

Doug Peterson, USFWS

About This Presentation

Running time: 20 minutes and 9 seconds

This is part of a collection. See more from Understanding & Adapting in Aquatic Ecosystems at Landscape and River Basin Scales.

Topics covered:

• Probabilistic models for decision support under climate change
• How do we use all this stuff? Bringing it all together
• Uncertainty: prediction error
• Uncertainty: complexity
• Uncertainty: non-stationarity
• Uncertainty: error propagation
• Bayesian networks (BNs) in use
• Bayesian Networks: definition and properties
• Bull trout in the Boise River Basin
• Concept: climate impacts on populations
• Conceptual model of vulnerability
• Influence diagram
• Parameterized model
• Data integration - mean summer water temperature
• Parameterized model
• Prediction based on input data
• Applying the model
• Climate change - no brook trout
• Historical scenario
• 2046 scenario
• 2086 scenario
• Climate change plus brook trout
• 2046 no brook trout
• 2046 brook trout present
• 2046 no brook trout
• 2046 brook trout present
• Predictions - intuitive
• Headwaters
• Predictions - counter intuitive

Production by: Michael Furniss and Jeffrey Guntle, Communications and Applications, PNW and PSW Research Stations

Video by: Freshwaters Illustrated.