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Bayesian Belief Networks, a Potential Tool for Decision SupportĀ 

CCRC Home > Climate Change Presentations > Understanding & Adapting in Aquatic Ecosystems at Landscape and River Basin Scales > Bayesian Belief Networks, a Potential Tool for Decision SupportĀ 

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Effects of Changing Flow Regimes on Aquatic Physical Habitat
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About The Presenter

Doug Peterson, USFWS


About This Presentation

Running time: 20 minutes and 9 seconds

This is part of a collection. See more from Understanding & Adapting in Aquatic Ecosystems at Landscape and River Basin Scales.

Topics covered:

  • Probabilistic models for decision support under climate change
  • How do we use all this stuff? Bringing it all together
  • Uncertainty: prediction error
  • Uncertainty: complexity
  • Uncertainty: non-stationarity
  • Uncertainty: error propagation
  • Bayesian networks (BNs) in use
  • Bayesian Networks: definition and properties
  • Bull trout in the Boise River Basin
  • Concept: climate impacts on populations
  • Conceptual model of vulnerability
  • Influence diagram
  • Parameterized model
  • Data integration - mean summer water temperature
  • Parameterized model
  • Prediction based on input data
  • Applying the model
  • Climate change - no brook trout
  • Historical scenario
  • 2046 scenario
  • 2086 scenario
  • Climate change plus brook trout
  • 2046 no brook trout
  • 2046 brook trout present
  • 2046 no brook trout
  • 2046 brook trout present
  • Predictions - intuitive
  • Headwaters
  • Predictions - counter intuitive

Production by: Michael Furniss and Jeffrey Guntle, Communications and Applications, PNW and PSW Research Stations

Video by: Freshwaters Illustrated.

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